In this week's edition:

• U.S. Stocks Closed Lower Last Friday, Amid Concerns That the Treasury’s Plan to Curb Borrowing Costs May Provide Only a Short-Term Fix.
• Gold Surged 5.18% w/w, supported by renewed concerns over US fiscal sustainability.
• Ghana’s Treasury Auction Oversubscribed by 7.86% as Demand Stays Skewed to the Long End as Yields Declined.
• Broader Market Declines as GSE-CI Falls by –1.12% w/w to 72.59% YTD, GSE-FSI Also Declined by –2.36% w/w to 70.53% YTD.

 AROUND THE GLOBE   

• U.S. Fed Minutes Show Inflation Risks and Rate Hike Concerns
  • The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicated that policymakers remained concerned about persistent inflation and believed additional interest rate hikes might be necessary if price pressures did not continue to moderate. While some officials felt financial conditions were not restrictive enough, others argued that tighter market conditions were already helping to curb demand. Overall, inflation risks were viewed as skewed to the upside, although the minutes may reflect a more hawkish stance than current market expectations, as they preceded softer employment and inflation data released subsequently.
• U.S. Factory Growth Slows to 5-Month Low: S&P Global
  • US manufacturing activity moderated in August 2026, with the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI declining to 53.2 from 53.9 in July, below market expectations. The slowdown reflected higher fuel costs, reduced inventory accumulation, and raw material shortages caused by supply chain delays. Output growth weakened for the third consecutive month, while new orders expanded at their slowest pace since March. Input purchasing contracted for the first time since February, and supplier delivery times lengthened further. Despite these challenges, employment growth strengthened, price pressures eased somewhat, and business confidence improved.
• European Investor Morale Stronger than Anticipated
  • Eurozone economic sentiment improved for a third consecutive month in August 2026, with the ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator rising to 31.4, its highest level in six months and above market expectations. The improvement reflected growing optimism among analysts, with over a third expecting economic conditions to strengthen and only a small minority anticipating deterioration. The assessment of current economic conditions also improved significantly, while inflation expectations eased, suggesting a more favourable outlook for growth and price stability in the region.
• UK Private Sector Activity Unexpectedly Accelerates
  • UK private sector activity remained resilient in August 2026, with the S&P Global UK Composite PMI holding at 52.5, outperforming market expectations. Growth was driven by stronger services activity, which offset a slowdown in manufacturing. New orders increased at the fastest pace since February, supported by robust demand in the services sector. However, employment continued to decline amid higher labour costs, while rising fuel prices and wages contributed to renewed inflationary pressures. Despite these challenges, business confidence improved for a third consecutive month, aided by better profit margins following the stabilisation of energy prices.

GHANA

• Bank of Ghana Holds Firm on 8% Inflation Target as Geopolitical Risks Cloud Outlook 

• • The Bank of Ghana is resisting calls to lower its medium-term inflation target despite a sharp improvement in price stability, signalling that policymakers are unwilling to declare victory while geopolitical tensions and external shocks could still disrupt Ghana’s macroeconomic recovery. The position reflects a deliberately cautious monetary-policy stance after Ghana emerged from one of its most severe inflationary episodes in decades, when rapid price increases, exchange-rate depreciation and fiscal pressures sharply weakened household purchasing power and business confidence.
• Bank Energy Sector Reset Cuts $1.47bn Burden
  
  
  • Ghana’s attempt to repair the finances of its power industry is beginning to produce measurable fiscal gains, with the government clearing about US$1.47 billion in legacy energy-sector obligations while securing an estimated US$750 million in savings from cheaper fuel choices and renegotiated power agreements. Speaking at a press briefing, the energy minister stated that reforms spanning fuel substitution, debt restructuring and tighter management of electricity-sector revenues had improved payments to Independent Power Producers and reduced the pace at which new arrears accumulate.

AFRICA

• Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Slows to 4-Month Low in July
  • Nigeria’s annual inflation rate slowed for the second consecutive month to 15.43% in July 2026, its lowest level since March, supported by the relative stability of the naira. The decline was driven by softer price increases in categories such as transportation, clothing and footwear, restaurants and hotels, and miscellaneous goods and services. However, food inflation accelerated to 20.31%, marking its sixth consecutive monthly increase and remaining the key inflationary pressure.
• Egypt's Central Bank Maintains Key Policy Rate
  • The Central Bank of Egypt maintained its benchmark interest rate at 19% in August 2026, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change as policymakers balanced inflation risks against moderating economic growth. The decision reflects concerns over rising inflation, pressure on the Egyptian pound, and higher fuel import costs stemming from regional geopolitical tensions. While economic activity softened in the second quarter, the central bank expects growth to average around 5% in FY2025/26 and inflation to gradually return to its target range by the second half of 2027. Policymakers reiterated their commitment to price stability, with markets expecting rates to remain unchanged through the end of 2026 before easing resumes in early 2027.
• South Africa Building Permits Jump in June
  • Building plans approved in South Africa surged by 30.5% from a year ago to around 9,868 in June 2026, following a revised 12.9% slump in the previous month. This was the strongest increase since January 2025, underpinned by a strong recovery in plans approved for non-residential buildings (136.7% vs -10.5% in May). Additional support came from residential buildings (7.8% vs -13%) and additions & alterations (8.9% vs -14.2%).

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

• U.S. Stocks Closed Higher Last Friday, Capping Off a Volatile Week as Major Technology Shares Propelled the Market Upward.
• Gold Surged 7.30% w/w as a Weak U.S. Payrolls Report Lowered Interest Rate Expectations.
• Ghana’s Treasury Auction Oversubscribed by 51.50% as Demand Stays Skewed to the Long End Despite Mixed Yield Movements.
• Broader Market Declines as GSE-CI Falls by –1.60% w/w to 73.17% YTD, GSE-FSI Also Declines by –2.63% w/w to 72.60% YTD.

AROUND THE GLOBE   

• U.S. Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.10% in July
  • The U.S. unemployment rate declined to 4.10% in July 2026, from 4.20% in June 2026, coming in below market expectations and marking the lowest level in four months. The improvement was largely driven by a contraction in the labour force, with the number of unemployed falling to 6.92 million (vs. 7.09 million in June), while total employment also declined to 162.18 million (vs. 162.26 million in June). Meanwhile, the labour force participation rate fell to 61.40% (vs. 61.50% in June), its lowest level since early 2021, and the employment-to-population ratio edged down to 58.90% (vs. 59.00% in June).
• China Inflation Falls to Six‑Month Low in July
  • China’s annual inflation rate eased to 0.50% in July 2026, down from 1.00% in June 2026 and below market expectations of 0.80%, marking the weakest pace of inflation since January. The slowdown was driven by continued weakness in food prices, with food inflation remaining negative at -1.50% (vs. -1.60% in June), while non-food inflation slowed to 0.90% (vs. 1.50% in June), reflecting softer increases in transport costs (0.40% vs. 4.10%) following fuel price cuts and easing global energy prices. Meanwhile, core inflation eased to 0.90% (vs. 1.00% in June). On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.10% (vs. -0.30% in June), defying expectations for a 0.20% increase.
• US Imposes a 15% Tariff on Polysilicon Imports
  • The Trump administration has imposed a 15.00% tariff on products made from polysilicon, a key input used in semiconductors and solar panels, as part of efforts to strengthen domestic manufacturing and curb China's influence in critical supply chains. In addition to the tariff, the administration introduced minimum import prices for polysilicon, wafers, solar cells, and solar modules, while authorizing the Commerce Department to establish incentive programs for firms investing in US-based polysilicon production. The measures, enacted under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, are intended to bolster domestic capacity in strategically important industries, though they could raise input costs for downstream manufacturers and renewable energy projects.
• Euro Area Business Activity Expands at Fastest Pace in Eight Months
  • The S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI was revised higher to 52.00 in July 2026, from a preliminary estimate of 51.90 and 50.00 in June 2026, signalling the strongest expansion in business activity since November 2025. The improvement was broad-based, with the services sector returning to growth and manufacturing output expanding at a faster pace, while new business increased for the first time this year and at the strongest rate since November. Meanwhile, both input cost and output price inflation eased further, and business confidence rose to a five-month high, reflecting improving optimism about the Eurozone economic outlook.
• U.K. Private Sector Activity Returns to Growth in July
  • The S&P Global UK Composite PMI rose to 52.20 in July 2026, from 49.003 in June 2026, broadly matching the preliminary estimate of 52.1 and marking the strongest expansion in private-sector activity since April. The recovery was driven by renewed growth in the services sector and the strongest increase in manufacturing output since September 2024, while new business expanded for the first time in three months, signaling improving demand conditions. Meanwhile, employment continued to decline, reflecting ongoing job losses in the services sector. 

GHANA

• Ghana Inflation Slows to 4.6% in July
  • Ghana’s annual inflation rate eased to 4.60% in July 2026, down from a six-month high of 5.30% in June 2026, marking the first decline after three consecutive monthly increases. The moderation was driven by softer food inflation (3.10% vs. 3.90% in June) and a slight easing in non-food inflation (6.10% vs. 6.30% in June), supported by a more stable exchange rate that helped contain imported price pressures. Accordingly, inflation for imported goods slowed to 2.00% (vs. 2.30% in June). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.10% (vs. 0.20% in June).

AFRICA

Egypt Inflation Accelerates to Three‑Month High in July

• Egypt’s annual urban inflation rate rose to 14.90% in July 2026, up from 14.30% in June 2026, marking the first increase in four months and the highest reading since April, although it remained below market expectations of 15.10%. The acceleration was driven mainly by food and beverage inflation, which climbed to 8.00% (vs. 5.40% in June), the strongest increase in 14 months, while transport inflation edged up to 24.50% (vs. 24.40% in June) as the impact of earlier fuel price hikes continued to filter through the economy. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat (0.00% vs. -0.40% in June), following the first monthly decline recorded since July 2025.

Nigeria Private Sector Growth Moderates in July

• Nigeria’s private-sector activity continued to expand in July 2026, although the pace of growth eased, with the Stanbic IBTC PMI falling to 52.5 from 53.4 in June. Growth remained supported by rising new orders, stronger customer demand, competitive pricing, and product launches, while business activity increased further, led by the agriculture and manufacturing sectors. Firms continued to increase employment and purchasing activity to meet higher workloads, although backlogs rose slightly amid logistical challenges.

South Africa Private Sector Expands for Second Straight Month

• South Africa’s private-sector activity remained in expansion territory in July 2026, with the S&P Global PMI easing slightly to 50.3 from 50.5 in June, signaling a modest improvement in business conditions. While business activity returned to growth for the first time in three months, supported by softer inflationary pressures and improved operational efficiency, new orders contracted for a third consecutive month amid weak consumer demand, political protests, and competition from cheaper imports, although export orders increased for a second straight month.

South Africa FX Reserves Fall to Eight‑Month Low

• South Africa’s gross foreign exchange reserves declined to USD 73.45 billion in July 2026, from USD 74.11 billion in June, marking their lowest level since November 2025. The decline was primarily driven by a drop in foreign currency reserves to USD 50.41 billion (vs. USD 51.22 billion in June), partly reflecting government foreign exchange payments, including the repayment of a USD 574.00 million foreign loan. In contrast, gold reserves increased to USD 16.38 billion (vs. USD 16.26 billion in June), supported by higher US Dollar gold prices, while SDR holdings rose to USD 6.67 billion (vs. USD 6.63 billion).

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

• U.S. Stocks Closed Mixed Last Friday, as Macroeconomic Headwinds Weighed against Signs of Tech Optimism.
• Gold Increased by 0.80% w/w as Expectations of a Fed Rate Hike Declined.
• Ghana’s Treasury Rejects 56.72% of Total Bids Tendered, Forcing Interest Rates Down.
• Broader Market Appreciation as GSE-CI Rises by 0.79% w/w to 74.54% YTD, GSE-FSI Also Rose by 1.19% w/w to 74.67% YTD.
  

AROUND THE GLOBE   

• Fitch Affirms U.S. at AA+ Amid Fiscal Strains
  • Fitch affirmed the U.S. sovereign credit rating at AA+ with a stable outlook, highlighting the country’s large economy, high per-capita income, and the dollar’s global reserve status. Despite tariffs, spending cuts, tighter border controls, and policy uncertainty, the economy has shown resilience and flexibility. Growth is projected to slow to 1.9% in 2026-2027 from 2.8% in 2025, with weaker labour demand and slower job creation. The fiscal outlook is pressured, with the deficit expected to widen to 7.4% of GDP in 2026-2027, the highest among AA-rated peers, driven by military, interest, Medicare, and Social Security costs.
• U.S. Budget Deficit Widens in July
  • The US government posted a $432 billion budget deficit in July 2026, widening from a $291 billion shortfall a year earlier and exceeding forecasts for a $346 billion gap. Government outlays rose to $766 billion from $630 billion in July 2025, led by Medicare spending of $174 billion. Social Security costs reached $141 billion, while net interest accounted for $104 billion and national defence for $91 billion. Meanwhile, government receipts fell to $334 billion from $338 billion a year earlier, with individual income taxes contributing $173 billion and social insurance and retirement receipts totalling $139 billion.
• U.S. Consumer Sentiment Falls in August
  • The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 51 in early August 2026, down from 55.2 in July and below market expectations of 54.5, ending two consecutive months of improvement. Both major components weakened, with the current conditions index declining to 51.8 and the expectations measure falling to 50.6. The deterioration was broad-based across political and demographic groups, with particularly sharp declines among older, lower-income and less-educated consumers, who are more exposed to rising prices.
• Euro Area GDP Annual Growth Rate Confirmed at 1% in Q2
  • The Eurozone economy grew 1.0% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, accelerating from an upwardly revised 0.5% in the previous quarter, according to second estimates. Strong AI-related investment, resilient government spending, and one-off factors helped offset the impact of the conflict in Iran and higher energy prices. Among the largest euro area economies, Spain remained the standout performer, with annual GDP growth of 2.7%, followed by the Netherlands (1.3%), Italy (1.0%), Germany (0.9%), and France (0.7%). Quarterly, the Eurozone economy expanded 0.4%, its strongest pace since the first quarter of 2025.
• PBoC Signals Targeted Support, No Major Easing
  • The People's Bank of China pledged to roll out “practical and effective” policy support promptly, while avoiding signals of major easing. In its quarterly monetary policy report released Wednesday, the central bank said it will intensify countercyclical adjustments, boost domestic demand, and channel more resources toward technological innovation and smaller firms. It vowed to conduct overnight reverse repo operations more frequently to fine-tune short-term rates, and urged that loans and bond financing be assessed together rather than focusing solely on credit growth.

AFRICA

• Kenya Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged for 3^rd Meeting
  • The Central Bank of Kenya left its benchmark interest rate at 8.75% on August 11th, 2026, a third straight hold, as policymakers stated that the current stance of monetary policy remained appropriate to ensure price and exchange rate stability. Headline inflation rose to 6.5%, driven by higher fuel costs that pushed up transportation and food prices, but remained within the bank’s 5% ±2.5% target range. Meanwhile, economic growth accelerated to 5.3% in the first quarter of 2026, from 4% in the previous quarter. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to remain within the target range in the near term, assuming a de-escalation of the Middle East conflict.
• Egypt Jobless Rate Hits Record Low
  • Egypt’s unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in Q2 2026, down from 6% in the previous quarter, reaching a record low. The labour force increased by 0.6% to around 35.64 million, as the number of unemployed declined by 2.4% to approximately 2.08 million, and employment rose by 0.8% to 33.6 million, the highest level on record, suggesting an improved capacity of the economy to absorb new labour market entrants, despite persistent gender disparities in labour market participation.
• South Africa Unemployment Rate Highest in 4 Years
  • South Africa’s unemployment rate rose to 33.6% in second quarter of 2026 from 32.7% in the first quarter, the highest since the second quarter of 2022. The number of unemployed people increased by 4.2% to 8.481 million, while employment edged down by 0.1% to 16.739 million. The labour force grew 1.3% to 25.220 million, although the participation rate slipped to 59.6%. The potential labour force, comprising people available but not seeking work or seeking work but unavailable, fell by 280,000 to 4.571 million, while those outside the labour force for other reasons increased by 72,000 to 12.519 million.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

• U.S. Stocks Closed Higher Last Week as Gains in Major Technology Stocks Lifted the Market in a Volatile Week.
• Gold Snubbed 0.16% w/w as Strong Dollar and Expectations of Tighter Monetary Policy Weaken Safe-haven Demand for the Precious Metal.
• Ghana’s Treasury Auction Oversubscribed by 47.48% as Demand Stays Skewed to the Long End Despite Mixed Yield Movements.
• Broader Market Extends Gains as GSE-CI Rises 0.68% w/w to 75.99% YTD Despite Continued Pullback in Financial Stocks. 

AROUND THE GLOBE   

• U.S GDP Growth Slows in Q2 2026
  • The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized 1.50% in Q2 2026, slowing from 2.10% in Q1 2026 and falling short of market expectations of 2.10%, according to the advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The moderation reflected slower growth in non-residential fixed investment (8.40% in Q2 vs. 10.60% Q1), a deeper drag from net exports (-1.01pp in Q1 vs. -0.37pp in Q2) due to weaker export growth (4.50% in Q2 vs. 10.90% in Q1), and a decline in government spending (-0.80% in Q2 vs. 4.40% in Q1). However, consumer spending accelerated sharply to 3.20% (vs. 0.50% in Q2), supported by stronger spending on vehicles, healthcare, furniture, and hospitality services, while residential investment rose 1.50%, marking its first increase in six quarters.
• Fed Holds Rates Steady, Signals Potential for Further Tightening
  • The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29, 2026, marking a fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change and aligning with market expectations. However, three FOMC members dissented in favor of a 25bp rate hike, signaling that policymakers remain concerned about inflation and leaving the door open to a possible rate increase in September. While acknowledging the economy's resilience, policymakers stressed that inflation remains above the 2.00% target, partly reflecting energy-related supply shocks, and reaffirmed their commitment to restoring price stability.
• BoE Holds Rates Steady, Warns of Upside Inflation Risks
  • The Bank of England left its Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% on July 30, 2026, with a 6–3 vote split, as policymakers balanced easing inflation against persistent risks from higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty. While headline inflation slowed to 2.60%, the Bank cautioned that price pressures could re-emerge later this year as elevated energy costs feed through to households and businesses, prompting three MPC members to vote for a 25bp hike to 4.00%.
• Eurozone Inflation Rises to 2.90% in July
  • The Eurozone annual inflation accelerated to 2.90% in July 2026, up from 2.80% in June 2026 and in line with market expectations, remaining well above the ECB’s 2.0% target. The increase was driven mainly by a renewed pickup in energy inflation (10.00% vs. 8.50% in June) following the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran, while services inflation edged higher to 3.30% (vs. 3.20% in June) and non-energy industrial goods inflation rose to 0.90% (vs. 0.70% in June). Meanwhile, food, alcohol, and tobacco inflation eased to 1.20% (vs. 1.50% in June), but core inflation increased to 2.50% (vs. 2.40% in June), signalling firmer underlying price pressures.
• Eurozone Growth Beats Expectations in Q2 2026
  • The Eurozone economy expanded by 1.00% y/y in Q2 2026, accelerating from an upwardly revised 0.50% in Q1 2026 and comfortably surpassing market expectations of 0.50%, according to preliminary estimates. Growth was supported by strong AI-related investment, resilient government spending, and temporary one-off factors, which helped offset the impact of the Iran conflict and higher energy prices. Among the bloc’s largest economies, Spain (2.70%) remained the strongest performer, followed by the Netherlands (1.30%), Italy (1.00%), Germany (0.90%), and France (0.70%). On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 0.40% q/q, accelerating from 0.2% in Q1 2026 and doubling market expectations, marking the strongest expansion since Q1 2025.

GHANA

• IMF Completes Final ECF Review, Unlocks US$371mn for Ghana
  
  
• • The IMF Executive Board has approved the final review of Ghana’s US$3.00 billion Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme, unlocking a final disbursement of about US$371.00 million and bringing the three-year bailout arrangement to a successful conclusion. The programme, launched in 2023, supported fiscal reforms, macroeconomic stabilization, and debt sustainability efforts following Ghana’s economic crisis. Following the ECF’s completion, Ghana will transition to a 36-month Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), a non-financing arrangement aimed at sustaining reforms, maintaining policy credibility, and consolidating recent economic gains.
• Ghana Targets GH¢16.30bn in First Cocoa Bill Sale Since Debt Default
   
  • Ghana is seeking to raise GH¢16.30 billion (about US$1.40 billion) through its first cocoa bill issuance since the country’s 2022 debt default, with the 270-day instrument expected to be offered to domestic institutional investors in early August. The proceeds will be used by COCOBOD to finance cocoa purchases from farmers during the 2026/27 crop season, marking the regulator’s largest cedi-denominated fundraising transaction to date. The issuance forms part of efforts to reduce reliance on external borrowing, with the bills to be issued through a special purpose vehicle, Cocoa Notes and Bonds Plc, listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange and supported by a sinking fund backed by cocoa export revenues to facilitate repayment and future issuances.

AFRICA

• Kenya Inflation Edges Higher in July
• Kenya’s annual inflation rate rose slightly to 6.50% in July 2026, from 6.40% in June 2026, remaining above the midpoint of the central bank’s 2.50%-7.50% target range for a third consecutive month. The increase was driven mainly by transport inflation (15.6% ), reflecting the lingering pass-through effects of earlier fuel price hikes, while food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation remained elevated at 9.0% (vs. 8.6% in June). Similarly, core inflation edged up to 3.2% (vs. 3.1% in June), signaling a modest build-up in underlying price pressures.
• South Africa Producer Inflation Eases in June
• South Africa’s producer price inflation slowed to 7.5% y/y in June 2026, down from an over three-year high of 7.8% in May 2026, as price pressures moderated across several manufacturing categories. The deceleration was driven by softer inflation in food, beverages and tobacco (1.3% vs. 2.1% in May), paper and printed products (8.5% vs. 8.7% in May), electrical machinery and communication equipment (6.2% vs. 6.9% in May), transport equipment (0.6% vs. 0.7% in May), and furniture (4.6% vs. 8.2% in May). On a monthly basis, producer prices fell 0.1%, reversing a 2.6% increase in May.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics