In this week's edition:

·    Global Equity Markets Remained in the Red, Extending Last Week’s Losses Amid Escalating Middle East Conflict and Surging Energy Prices.

·    Gold Plummeted 10.50% W/W, as Middle East Tensions Drove Energy Prices Higher and Dashed Hopes for Near-Term Rate Cuts.

·    Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed for Second Straight Week as Yields Edge Higher Across the Curve.

·    GSE Edges Slightly Higher as Financial Stocks See Correction; GSE-CI Climbs 0.51% w/w to 78.92% YTD, while GSE-FSI Dipped to 111.83% YTD.

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - March 24, 2026

 AROUND THE GLOBE   

·    Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.5%–3.75%

o   On March 18, 2026, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, maintaining a steady stance amid solid economic growth, modest job gains, and elevated inflation. Policymakers continue to expect one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027, though the timing is uncertain. It revised economic forecasts for the U.S., with GDP growth now projected at 2.4% for 2026 (up from 2.3%) and 2.3% for 2027 (up from 2%). Unemployment is expected to be at 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. Both PCE and core PCE inflation have been raised to 2.7% this year (from 2.4%–2.5%) and 2.2% in 2027 (from 2.1%), reflecting slightly higher inflation pressures than previously forecast.

·    ECB Holds Rates, Revises Inflation Upward

o   The European Central Bank kept rates steady at its latest meeting on March 19, 2026—main refinancing at 2.15%, deposit facility at 2.0%, and marginal lending at 2.4%—while raising inflation forecasts due to higher energy prices from the American/Israeli war on Iran. Headline inflation is now expected at 2.6% in 2026, easing to 2.0% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. Core inflation projections also rose, while GDP growth forecasts were lowered to 0.9% in 2026, reflecting downside risks to growth from higher commodity costs and reduced confidence.

·    BoJ Holds Rates Amid Rising Middle East Risks

o   The Bank of Japan kept its short-term interest rate at 0.75%, with an 8–1 vote in which Hajime Takata pushed for a hike to 1%. Policymakers said the economy is recovering moderately but warned that rising Middle East tensions and energy market volatility are creating uncertainty. They signaled the possibility of future rate increases, noting low real rates and expecting inflation to briefly fall below 2% before rising again due to higher crude oil prices.

·    Japan Inflation Drops to Near Four-Year Low

o   Japan’s annual CPI eased to 1.3% in February 2026, the lowest since March 2022, with food inflation near a 15-month low at 4.0%. Price growth slowed for transport (0.5%) and clothing (2.1%), while energy costs plunged further—electricity -8.0% and gas -5.1%—reflecting subsidies. Core inflation fell to 1.6%, below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the first time since March 2022. Monthly CPI declined by 0.2%, marking the third consecutive monthly drop, as household items, communications, and recreation saw modest increases.

·    US Producer Prices Surge in February

o   U.S. producer prices jumped by 0.7% month-on-month in February 2026, exceeding forecasts of 0.3% and marking the largest increase in seven months. Goods prices rose by 1.1%, led by a 48.9% spike in fresh and dry vegetable costs, along with higher diesel, gasoline, eggs, jet fuel, and tobacco prices. Service prices increased by 0.5%, driven mainly by traveler accommodation. Core PPI rose by 0.5%. On a yearly basis, headline PPI climbed to 3.4% (highest in a year) and core PPI jumped to 3.9%, both above expectations.

GHANA

·    Ghana Cuts Policy Rate by 150bps to 14%

o   The Bank of Ghana reduced its benchmark interest rate by 150 basis points to 14% at its latest meeting on March 18, 2026 decision, marking a fifth consecutive rate cut. The move exceeded market expectations of a 100bps cut, signaling stronger support for growth. The decision follows a sharp decline in inflation to a 25-year low of 3.3% in February, although risks remain from rising global energy prices. Strong gold-driven forex inflows have eased pressure on the Cedi, giving the central bank more room to sustain its easing cycle.

·    Ghana’s GDP Growth Accelerates in Q4 2025

o   Ghana’s economy expanded by 5.8% year-on-year in Q4 2025, up from 5.5% in Q3, driven mainly by strong non-oil sector growth (7.1%). The services sector (8.6%) remained the key engine, contributing over half of total growth, with gains in ICT, transport, education, and finance. Agriculture also improved, rising by 5.3%, supported by higher crop output, including cocoa. In contrast, industry grew modestly by 1.9%, as declines in oil and gas offset gains elsewhere. GDP grew 6% in full-year 2025, surpassing the 5.8% recorded in 2024. 

AFRICA

·    South Africa Inflation Slows to Seven-Month Low

o   South Africa’s annual inflation fell to 3% in February 2026, below the 3.1% forecast and the lowest since June 2025. The slowdown was driven by a 2.1% drop in transportation costs, including a sharp 10.1% fall in fuel prices, as well as slower price growth in food, non-alcoholic beverages, and health. Core inflation also eased to 3%, a seven-month low. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.4%, up from 0.2% in January, reflecting moderate but broad-based easing across key categories.

·    Nigeria Inflation Falls to Five-Year Low in February

o   Nigeria’s annual inflation rate edged down to 15.06% in February 2026, from 15.10% in January, marking the lowest level since November 2020 and the 11th consecutive month of decline. However, the pace of disinflation has slowed in recent months. Despite the overall easing, food inflation rose sharply to 12.12%, highlighting persistent price pressures. The National Bureau of Statistics’ revised methodology—using a 12-month reference period—has also influenced recent inflation trends, while the central bank expects moderation to continue.

    Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        U.S. Equities Closed Higher, After the Supreme Court Struck Down President Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs.

·        Gold Prices Rose 1.30% W/W, as the Ruling Against Global Tariffs Reinforced Its Appeal as a Hedge Against Policy Risk.

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Was 22.40% Oversubscribed, With Yields Plunging Sharply Across the Curve.

·        Ghanaian Equities Posted a Record Weekly Surge, as the Composite Index Jumped 15.06%, Lifting YTD Returns To 34.61%.

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• Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - February 23, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        United States GDP Growth Slows Sharply in Q4 2025

o   The U.S. economy grew at an annualized 1.4% in Q4 2025, sharply down from 4.4% in Q3 and well below forecasts of 3%, marking the weakest expansion since Q1 (-0.6%). Consumer spending moderated, with goods purchases declining, while exports reversed prior gains and government spending contracted sharply due to the shutdown, subtracting nearly 1 percentage point from growth. In contrast, fixed investment strengthened, supported by intellectual property and equipment spending. For full-year 2025, GDP rose by 2.2%, slower than 2024’s 2.8% growth.

·        United States Trade Deficit Widens More Than Expected

o   The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply to $70.3 billion in December 2025, well above expectations, as exports fell by 1.7%, weighed down by non-monetary gold, while imports rose by 3.6%, led by computer accessories. For full-year 2025, the trade gap totalled $901.5 billion, slightly narrower than 2024 but still among the largest on record. While deficits with the EU and China narrowed, gaps with Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan widened significantly.

·        Eurozone Current Account Surplus Narrows Sharply

o   The euro area’s current account surplus narrowed to €34.6 billion in December 2025, down from €45.9 billion a year earlier. The goods surplus declined as imports rose faster than exports, while both primary income and services surpluses weakened. For full-year 2025, the surplus shrank markedly to €261.4 billion, compared with €412.3 billion in 2024. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the surplus fell to 1.6% of GDP, highlighting a softer external position.

·        Japan Inflation Eases to Lowest Since 2022

o   Japan’s annual inflation slowed to 1.5% in January 2026, down from 2.1% in December and the lowest since March 2022. Food inflation eased notably, led by slower rice price increases, while transport, healthcare, and household goods also saw softer price growth. Energy prices remained negative due to subsidies, and education costs continued to decline. Core inflation slipped to 2.0%, aligning with the central bank’s target. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.2%.

• GHANA

·        Ghana Plans $2.7 Billion Bond to Support Cocoa Sector

o   Ghana plans to raise about 30 billion cedis (approximately $2.7 billion) through a syndicated domestic bond issuance to finance operations in the cocoa sector. The funds will support the Ghana Cocoa Board (CocoBod), which oversees production, purchasing, and export activities in the industry. The move comes amid ongoing reforms and funding pressures within the cocoa sector, a key foreign-exchange earner and critical pillar of Ghana’s agricultural economy.

• AFRICA

·        South Africa’s Inflation Eases to 3.5% in January 2026

o   South Africa’s annual inflation rate edged down to 3.5% in January 2026, from 3.6% in December, slightly above expectations of 3.4%. Lower transport costs, driven by a 3.7% drop in fuel prices, weighed on headline inflation. However, price pressures persisted in key categories, with housing and utilities at 4.8% and food inflation at 4.4%, supported by rising meat prices amid foot-and-mouth disease disruptions. Core inflation ticked up to 3.4%, near a one-year high, while monthly CPI rose by 0.2%, unchanged from December.

·        Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Falls Again, Marking 10 Months of Decline

o   Nigeria’s inflation slowed for the 10th straight month, easing to 15.10% in January 2026 from 15.15% in December, the lowest since November 2020 (14.89%). The decline was supported by a stronger currency that lowered import costs. Food inflation dropped to 8.89%, its sixth monthly fall, driven by cheaper cooking oil, grains, and vegetables. Price growth also eased in recreation & culture (1.52% vs 12.12%), clothing & footwear (10.91% vs 13.16%), and alcoholic drinks & tobacco (13.62% vs 14.98%), but rose sharply in education (22.48% vs 16.36%). Core inflation softened for the seventh month to 17.72%, the lowest since October 2022. Month‑on‑month, the CPI fell by 2.88% after a 0.54% rise previously.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        Global Equity Markets Closed Last Week in the Red, Amid Escalating Geopolitical Tensions and Weak U.S. Payroll Data.

·        Gold Slipped by 2.03% w/w, Partly Recovering from Earlier ~5% Losses as Investors Favoured the U.S. Dollar Amid Escalating Geopolitical Tensions.

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Records 8.08% Oversubscription as Yields Continue to Decline Across the Curve.

·        Financials and GOIL Drive Market Surge as GSE-CI Jumps 10.91% w/w; Last week’s performance pushes YTD Return on GSE-CI and GSE-FSI to 62.74% and 92.62%, respectively.

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - March 09, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        United States Economy Loses 92K Jobs in February

o   The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February 2026, the largest decline in four months and far worse than forecasts for a 59,000 gain. The drop was partly driven by strike-related losses in healthcare, particularly in physicians’ offices. Employment also fell in manufacturing, information, transportation, and the federal government, while social assistance added modest jobs. Revisions showed weaker earlier data, with December and January payrolls 69,000 lower than previously reported, indicating stagnant overall job growth in 2025.

·        China Inflation Jumps to Highest in Over 3 Years

o   China’s annual inflation rose sharply to 1.3% in February 2026, up from 0.2% in January and above expectations, marking the highest level since January 2023. The surge was largely driven by Lunar New Year-related spending, which boosted food prices, particularly fresh vegetables, while the decline in pork prices eased. Non-food inflation also strengthened, with higher costs for clothing, healthcare, and education. Core inflation climbed to 1.8%, its strongest since 2019, while monthly CPI increased by 1.0%, the largest rise in a year.

·        Eurozone Growth Slows to 0.2% in Q4 2025

o   The euro area economy expanded by 0.2% in Q4 2025, revised down from 0.3% and slower than the previous quarter, signaling modest momentum despite easing inflation and lower interest rates. Household consumption strengthened to 0.4%, but growth in fixed investment and public spending slowed. Both inventory changes and net trade slightly dragged on overall GDP. Among major economies, Spain led with 0.8% growth, followed by the Netherlands (0.5%), while Germany and Italy each grew by 0.3% and France 0.2%. For 2025 overall, GDP rose by 1.4%, up from 0.9% in 2024.

·        United States Composite PMI Falls to 10-Month Low

o   The U.S. S&P Global Composite PMI fell to 51.9 in February from 53 in January, marking a 10-month low and coming in below preliminary estimates. The slowdown reflected weaker growth in both manufacturing and services, alongside softer new business expansion early in the first quarter. Companies continued hiring, but only marginally as confidence in the economic outlook remained subdued. Meanwhile, costs and selling prices remained elevated, with price increases largely unchanged and still above long-term averages.

·        Japan Current Account Surplus Rises but Misses Forecasts

o   Japan’s current account surplus rose to JPY 942.6 billion in January 2026, up sharply from JPY 344.6 billion a year earlier but slightly below market expectations. The improvement was mainly driven by a smaller goods trade deficit, as exports surged by 20.5% while imports fell by 7.7% due to lower energy costs. However, the primary income surplus declined, while the services deficit widened, partly reflecting increased outbound travel and payments for foreign services. The secondary income deficit also widened slightly.

•  GHANA

·        Ghana Inflation Falls to Near Three-Decade Low

o   Ghana’s annual inflation rate declined to 3.3% in February 2026, down from 3.8% in January, marking the 14th consecutive month of disinflation and the lowest level since August 1999. The decline was largely driven by easing food inflation, which dropped to 2.4% from 3.9%, while non-food inflation edged up slightly to 4.0%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.8%, accelerating from the 0.2% increase recorded in January.

•  AFRICA

·        South Africa’s Forex Reserves Climb to Fresh Record

o   South Africa’s gross foreign exchange reserves rose to a new record of $81.06 billion in February 2026, up from $80.19 billion in January. The increase was driven mainly by higher gold reserves and foreign currency holdings, reflecting stronger external buffers. Meanwhile, the central bank’s forward position, which represents unsettled or swap transactions, edged up slightly. In contrast, SDR holdings declined marginally during the month.

·        Nigeria’s Money Supply Falls Slightly to N123 Trillion

o   Nigeria’s broad money supply (M2) declined by 0.8% month-on-month to N123.4 trillion in January 2026 from N124.4 trillion in December, signaling tight liquidity in the banking system despite lower interest rates. Quasi-money fell by 1.2% to N81 trillion, and currency outside banks dropped by 3.7% to N5.2 trillion, while demand deposits rose by 1.1% to N37.1 trillion. The decline in M2 was mirrored by a reduction in net domestic credit, with both government and private sector lending contracting.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        US Equities Closed Lower, As Softer-than-Expected January Inflation Failed to Lift Risk Sentiment Amid Persistent AI-Driven Volatility

·        Gold Prices Gained 1.56% W/W, as Softer US Inflation Eased Treasury Yields and Pressured the Dollar

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Saw Yields Drop Over 100 Bps Across the Curve, While the Offer Was Oversubscribed By 40.19%

·        Ghanaian Equities Posted a Historic Weekly Surge, Pushing the GSE-CI To 17.00% YTD, With the FSI Advancing To 20.08% YTD

• Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - February 16, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        US Inflation Slows More Than Expected in January

o   The US annual inflation rate eased to 2.4% in January 2026, below expectations of 2.5%, and down from 2.7% in the prior two months. The slowdown was largely driven by base effects and softer energy prices, particularly gasoline and fuel oil. Inflation also moderated for shelter and food, while used car prices declined. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.2%. Core inflation edged down to 2.5% annually, with monthly core prices up by 0.3%.

·        Eurozone Growth Holds Steady in Q4 2025

o   The euro area economy expanded by 0.3% in Q4 2025, confirming earlier estimates and matching Q3’s pace, underscoring resilience amid easing inflation and lower interest rates despite US tariff headwinds. Spain led with 0.8% growth, supported by strong consumption and investment, followed by the Netherlands at 0.5% on export strength. Germany and Italy each grew by 0.3%, while France rose by 0.2%. Annual growth stood at 1.3% in Q4, with full-year 2025 GDP up by 1.5%, accelerating from 2024.

·        United Kingdom Economy Grows 0.1% in Q4 2025

o   The UK economy expanded by 0.1% in Q4 2025, matching Q3’s pace but slightly below expectations of 0.2%, according to preliminary data. Production rose by 1.2%, rebounding from a prior decline, with manufacturing up by 0.9% as car output normalized. However, the services sector stalled after modest growth in Q3, while construction contracted sharply by 2.1%, weighing on overall performance. On an annual basis, GDP rose by 1.0% in Q4. For 2025 overall, the economy grew by 1.3%, slightly above 2024’s 1.1% expansion.

·        United States Nonfarm Payrolls Beat Expectations in January

o   The US economy added 130,000 jobs in January 2026, sharply above December’s downwardly revised 48,000 and well ahead of forecasts for 70,000, marking the strongest gain since December 2024. Job growth was led by health care (82,000), particularly ambulatory services, alongside gains in social assistance (42,000) and construction (33,000). Manufacturing added 5,000 jobs. However, federal government payrolls fell by 34,000, while financial activities declined by 22,000. Notably, 2025 job growth was revised sharply lower, pointing to much softer underlying labour market momentum.

·        China Inflation Slows Sharply in January

o   China’s annual inflation eased to 0.2% in January 2026, down from 0.8% in December and below expectations of 0.4%, marking the lowest reading since October. Food prices fell for the first time in three months, driven by declines in pork, eggs, and cooking oils, while non-food inflation also moderated. Housing and transport prices remained in decline, though clothing costs accelerated. Core inflation slowed to 0.8%, its weakest in six months. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.2%, below market forecasts.

·        Japan Records 0.2% Annualized Economic Growth in Q4

o   Japan’s economy expanded at an annualized rate of 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025, rebounding from a revised 2.6% contraction in the previous quarter but falling short of market expectations for 1.6% growth, according to preliminary figures. The mild recovery was driven by an uptick in business investment, a small boost from net exports, and sustained government spending. Nevertheless, private consumption, which makes up over half of Japan’s GDP, recorded its weakest increase in a year, weighed down by persistent cost pressures, especially higher food prices. The data underscores the uneven nature of Japan’s economic momentum as it heads into 2026.

• GHANA

·        Ghana Considers Cocoa Pricing Reform

o   Ghana is weighing a shift from its fixed cocoa pricing system to a flexible, market-linked model, amid a sharp downturn in global futures. The proposal would allow automatic domestic price adjustments in line with international markets, replacing the long-standing administered price set at harvest. The move follows a 70% plunge in New York cocoa futures from their 2024 peak, leaving Cocobod exposed after paying farmers 58,000 cedis per ton. The reform, expected to take effect from the next main crop in October pending parliamentary approval, aims to stabilize the sector while increasing domestic processing to 60% of output. Cocoa remains a vital export, generating $3.9 billion last year (2025) and supporting over 800,000 households.

• AFRICA

·        Egypt Cuts Rates to 19% as Inflation Continues to Ease

o   The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) reduced its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 19% on February 12, 2026, marking the second consecutive cut and the lowest level since July 2023. The move followed easing inflation, with urban inflation slowing to 11.9% and core inflation to 11.2% in January. The Egyptian pound has strengthened about 2% year-to-date, trading at 46.8 per dollar. The CBE also cut the discount rate to 19.5% and lowered banks’ reserve requirement ratio to 16%.

·        Kenya Extends Easing Cycle with 10th Straight Rate Cut

o   Kenya’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 8.75% on February 10, 2026, marking the tenth straight reduction following a similar cut in December. The Monetary Policy Committee noted that the move reinforces earlier efforts aimed at boosting private‑sector credit and supporting overall economic activity, while maintaining price stability and a steady exchange rate. Kenya’s annual inflation eased to a six‑month low of 4.4% in January 2026, down from 4.5% in December, remaining below the central bank’s 5% target midpoint and expected to stay subdued in the near term. The bank also highlighted the economy’s resilience, with GDP expanding 4.9% in Q3 2025.

   Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics