In this week's edition:

·        US Equities Closed Lower, As Softer-than-Expected January Inflation Failed to Lift Risk Sentiment Amid Persistent AI-Driven Volatility

·        Gold Prices Gained 1.56% W/W, as Softer US Inflation Eased Treasury Yields and Pressured the Dollar

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Saw Yields Drop Over 100 Bps Across the Curve, While the Offer Was Oversubscribed By 40.19%

·        Ghanaian Equities Posted a Historic Weekly Surge, Pushing the GSE-CI To 17.00% YTD, With the FSI Advancing To 20.08% YTD

• Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - February 16, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        US Inflation Slows More Than Expected in January

o   The US annual inflation rate eased to 2.4% in January 2026, below expectations of 2.5%, and down from 2.7% in the prior two months. The slowdown was largely driven by base effects and softer energy prices, particularly gasoline and fuel oil. Inflation also moderated for shelter and food, while used car prices declined. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.2%. Core inflation edged down to 2.5% annually, with monthly core prices up by 0.3%.

·        Eurozone Growth Holds Steady in Q4 2025

o   The euro area economy expanded by 0.3% in Q4 2025, confirming earlier estimates and matching Q3’s pace, underscoring resilience amid easing inflation and lower interest rates despite US tariff headwinds. Spain led with 0.8% growth, supported by strong consumption and investment, followed by the Netherlands at 0.5% on export strength. Germany and Italy each grew by 0.3%, while France rose by 0.2%. Annual growth stood at 1.3% in Q4, with full-year 2025 GDP up by 1.5%, accelerating from 2024.

·        United Kingdom Economy Grows 0.1% in Q4 2025

o   The UK economy expanded by 0.1% in Q4 2025, matching Q3’s pace but slightly below expectations of 0.2%, according to preliminary data. Production rose by 1.2%, rebounding from a prior decline, with manufacturing up by 0.9% as car output normalized. However, the services sector stalled after modest growth in Q3, while construction contracted sharply by 2.1%, weighing on overall performance. On an annual basis, GDP rose by 1.0% in Q4. For 2025 overall, the economy grew by 1.3%, slightly above 2024’s 1.1% expansion.

·        United States Nonfarm Payrolls Beat Expectations in January

o   The US economy added 130,000 jobs in January 2026, sharply above December’s downwardly revised 48,000 and well ahead of forecasts for 70,000, marking the strongest gain since December 2024. Job growth was led by health care (82,000), particularly ambulatory services, alongside gains in social assistance (42,000) and construction (33,000). Manufacturing added 5,000 jobs. However, federal government payrolls fell by 34,000, while financial activities declined by 22,000. Notably, 2025 job growth was revised sharply lower, pointing to much softer underlying labour market momentum.

·        China Inflation Slows Sharply in January

o   China’s annual inflation eased to 0.2% in January 2026, down from 0.8% in December and below expectations of 0.4%, marking the lowest reading since October. Food prices fell for the first time in three months, driven by declines in pork, eggs, and cooking oils, while non-food inflation also moderated. Housing and transport prices remained in decline, though clothing costs accelerated. Core inflation slowed to 0.8%, its weakest in six months. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.2%, below market forecasts.

·        Japan Records 0.2% Annualized Economic Growth in Q4

o   Japan’s economy expanded at an annualized rate of 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025, rebounding from a revised 2.6% contraction in the previous quarter but falling short of market expectations for 1.6% growth, according to preliminary figures. The mild recovery was driven by an uptick in business investment, a small boost from net exports, and sustained government spending. Nevertheless, private consumption, which makes up over half of Japan’s GDP, recorded its weakest increase in a year, weighed down by persistent cost pressures, especially higher food prices. The data underscores the uneven nature of Japan’s economic momentum as it heads into 2026.

• GHANA

·        Ghana Considers Cocoa Pricing Reform

o   Ghana is weighing a shift from its fixed cocoa pricing system to a flexible, market-linked model, amid a sharp downturn in global futures. The proposal would allow automatic domestic price adjustments in line with international markets, replacing the long-standing administered price set at harvest. The move follows a 70% plunge in New York cocoa futures from their 2024 peak, leaving Cocobod exposed after paying farmers 58,000 cedis per ton. The reform, expected to take effect from the next main crop in October pending parliamentary approval, aims to stabilize the sector while increasing domestic processing to 60% of output. Cocoa remains a vital export, generating $3.9 billion last year (2025) and supporting over 800,000 households.

• AFRICA

·        Egypt Cuts Rates to 19% as Inflation Continues to Ease

o   The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) reduced its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 19% on February 12, 2026, marking the second consecutive cut and the lowest level since July 2023. The move followed easing inflation, with urban inflation slowing to 11.9% and core inflation to 11.2% in January. The Egyptian pound has strengthened about 2% year-to-date, trading at 46.8 per dollar. The CBE also cut the discount rate to 19.5% and lowered banks’ reserve requirement ratio to 16%.

·        Kenya Extends Easing Cycle with 10th Straight Rate Cut

o   Kenya’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 8.75% on February 10, 2026, marking the tenth straight reduction following a similar cut in December. The Monetary Policy Committee noted that the move reinforces earlier efforts aimed at boosting private‑sector credit and supporting overall economic activity, while maintaining price stability and a steady exchange rate. Kenya’s annual inflation eased to a six‑month low of 4.4% in January 2026, down from 4.5% in December, remaining below the central bank’s 5% target midpoint and expected to stay subdued in the near term. The bank also highlighted the economy’s resilience, with GDP expanding 4.9% in Q3 2025.

   Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        Major global equity markets fell as the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady

·        Gold Prices Plunged By 1.87% w/w After Record High Amid Investor Profit-Taking

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Was Oversubscribed by 75.88%, Hitting a Ten-Week Streak as Long-End Demand Persists; Yields Decline Sharply Across the Curve

·        Ghanaian Equities Ended the Week in the Green as the GSE-CI Rose 0.33% W/W, Lifting YTD Returns To 2.69%, Financials Led the Charge 

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - February 2, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        Fed Holds Rates Steady at January 2026 Meeting

o   The US Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% in January 2026, in line with expectations, after three consecutive rate cuts in 2025. Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller dissented, favouring an additional 25bps cut. Policymakers noted solid economic growth, subdued job gains, stabilizing unemployment, and inflation that remains somewhat elevated. Chair Jerome Powell said the economy is entering 2026 on a firm footing and that current rates are appropriate, stressing that future decisions will remain data dependent.

·        Eurozone GDP Outperforms Forecasts in 2025

o   The Eurozone economy grew by 1.5% in 2025, accelerating from 0.9% in 2024 and surpassing the European Commission’s 1.3% forecast. Growth was driven by resilient household consumption supported by easing inflation and lower borrowing costs, a surge in exports to the US ahead of anticipated tariffs, and stronger-than-expected investment in equipment and intangible assets. Looking ahead, growth is projected to ease to 1.2% in 2026 amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties, before improving modestly to 1.4% in 2027.

·        US Producer Inflation Accelerates in December

o   US producer prices rose more than expected in December 2025, with headline PPI increasing by 0.5% month-on-month, the largest gain in three months and above forecasts of 0.2%. The rise was driven by a rebound in services prices, while goods prices were flat. Core PPI surged by 0.7%, its biggest increase since July (0.8%). On an annual basis, headline producer inflation held at 3%, while core inflation accelerated to 3.3%, both exceeding expectations and signalling persistent upstream price pressures.

·        Bank of Canada Keeps Policy Rate Steady Amid Trade Uncertainty

o   The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% at the January 2026 meeting, in line with expectations and prior guidance. Policymakers said current settings remain appropriate under the baseline outlook but flagged rising uncertainty from renewed US tariff threats, which could necessitate policy adjustments in either direction. Growth projections were broadly maintained, with GDP expected to exceed 1% in 2026, while inflation is seen hovering near the 2% target.

·        China Manufacturing PMI Slips Back into Contraction

o   China’s official Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in January 2026 from 50.1, missing expectations and signalling renewed contraction in factory activity. Weaker demand dragged new orders back into contraction, while output growth slowed and foreign sales deteriorated further. Employment and purchasing activity remained subdued, reflecting cautious business sentiment. Cost pressures intensified as input prices rose at a faster pace, while selling prices returned to expansion.

• GHANA

·        BoG Delivers a 250 bps Policy Rate Cut to 15.5%

o   The Bank of Ghana reduced its policy rate by 250 basis points to 15.5% at its first meeting of 2026, the lowest level since February 2022 (14.5%). Governor Johnson Asiama noted that headline inflation is expected to converge toward the 8.0% medium-term target, while economic growth remains strong. Inflation eased to 5.4% in December, the 12th consecutive month of disinflation. The central bank reaffirmed its commitment to safeguarding macroeconomic stability and supporting sustainable growth.

• AFRICA

·        South Africa Holds Repo Rate at 6.75% Amid Easing Inflation

o   The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) kept its key repo rate unchanged at 6.75% on January 29, 2026, in line with expectations, following a 25 bps cut in November. The decision was split, with two members favouring a further cut. While inflation prospects are improving, policymakers remain cautious due to electricity tariff risks and global uncertainty. SARB lowered its 2026 inflation forecast to 3.3% and expects inflation to reach the 3% target by 2028, with gradual rate cuts projected ahead.

            Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

• US Equity Markets Closed Mixed, with Sectoral Dynamics in Focus as a Tech-Led Selloff Weighed on Performance.
• Gold Prices Partially Recovered, Rising by 1.43% w/w Amid Heightened Volatility Following Recent Selling Pressure.
• Ghana’s Treasury Rejects 66.21% of Bids at Auction, Yet the Offer was 17.08% Oversubscribed as Yields Decline Further Across the Curve.
• Ghanaian Equities Recorded Twelve Gainers, with the GSE-CI Advancing by 1.62% w/w to Lift YTD Returns to 4.36%, While the FSI Strengthened to 8.39% YTD.

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - February 09, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        US Job Openings Drop to Post-Pandemic Low

o   US job openings fell sharply by 386,000 to 6.54 million in December 2025, the lowest level since September 2020 (6.51 million) and well below market expectations. Declines were broad-based, led by professional and business services, retail trade, and finance and insurance. Regionally, openings fell across all major areas. Despite softer labour demand, hiring and separations remained steady at 5.3 million, with quits and layoffs largely unchanged, pointing to cooling but orderly labour market conditions.

·        ECB Holds Rates, Flags Elevated Uncertainty

o   The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at its first meeting of 2026, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, with the deposit and marginal lending rates at 2.0% and 2.4%. The ECB reaffirmed that inflation is expected to stabilize around its 2% target and noted continued economic resilience. However, policymakers cautioned that the outlook remains highly uncertain amid global trade risks and geopolitical tensions, stressing a data-dependent approach to future decisions.

·        Bank of England Holds Rates, Signals Gradual Easing Ahead

o   The Bank of England kept the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% in February, with a close 5–4 vote highlighting growing divisions within the MPC. While inflation remains above target, easing pay growth, softer services inflation, and a cooling labour market suggest diminishing persistence risks. With economic growth subdued and downside risks rising, policymakers signalled that further rate cuts are likely but emphasized that future decisions will remain finely balanced and guided by incoming inflation data.

·        World Food Prices Extend Decline to Fifth Month

o   The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index fell by 0.4% to 123.9 points in January 2026, marking a fifth straight monthly decline and its lowest level since August 2024 (121.7 points). Sugar prices dropped on expectations of higher global supply, led by a production rebound in India and favourable prospects in Thailand. Dairy prices slid sharply, while meat prices eased modestly. In contrast, cereal prices edged higher, led by rice, and vegetable oil prices jumped on gains in palm, soy, and sunflower oils.

·        US Manufacturing Activity Rebounds Sharply in January

o   US manufacturing activity returned to expansion in January 2026, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI surging to 52.6 from 47.9 in December, well above expectations. The rebound was driven by sharp improvements in new orders, production, supplier deliveries, and employment, though jobs and inventories remained in contraction. Price pressures were broadly stable. ISM noted that part of the strength reflects seasonal restocking after the holidays and some front-loading of purchases ahead of potential tariff-related price increases.

• GHANA

·        Ghana Inflation Falls to 3.8% in January 2026

o   Ghana’s headline inflation declined sharply to 3.8% in January 2026, down from 5.4% in December, marking an almost three-decade low. Monthly inflation eased to 0.2%, while both food and non-food inflation slowed to 3.9%. The disinflation trend reflects improved fiscal conditions, a stronger Cedi, up about 40% year-on-year, and record gold prices. With inflation expected to stay within the 6%–10% target band, analysts see scope for further rate cuts in March and May.

• AFRICA

·        South Africa’s Forex Reserves Reach Record High

o   South Africa’s gross foreign exchange reserves surged to a record $80.2 billion in January 2026, the highest level since records began in 1998, up from $75.9 billion in December. The increase was driven by stronger gold reserves, higher SDR holdings, and a rise in foreign currency reserves. Meanwhile, the central bank’s forward position narrowed sharply, indicating fewer unsettled or swap transactions during the.

 Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week’s edition: 

·                  Major Global Equity Markets Ended in the Red as Investors Paused Ahead of Upcoming Earnings 

·                  Gold Prices Jumped by 8.52% W/W To Close at a Record High 

·                  Ghana’s Treasury Extends Oversubscription (30.32%) Streak to Nine Weeks as Long-End Demand Persists 

·                  Ghanaian Equities Ended the Week Strongly as the GSE-CI Rose 1.88% W/W, Lifting YTD Returns To 2.35% 

 Kindly click to view the full report: Global Markets Update - January 26, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE    

·                  US Q3 2025 GDP Growth Revised Up to 4.4% 

o        US GDP expanded at an annualized 4.4% in Q3 2025, slightly above the initial estimate and the fastest pace since Q3 2023. The revision reflected stronger exports and a smaller drag from inventories. Growth was driven by robust consumer spending, higher government outlays, and a rebound in exports. Consumer spending rose by 3.5%, exports surged by 9.6%, and inventory drag eased sharply, while fixed investment slowed to 0.8%. 

·                  US Manufacturing Shows Mild Momentum in January 

o        US manufacturing activity remained in modest expansion in January 2026, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI edging up to 51.9 from 51.8 in December, broadly in line with expectations. While overall improvement stayed subdued, output growth strengthened, while new orders rebounded after a prior-month decline. Employment growth slowed to a six-month low, supplier delivery times lengthened modestly, and input inventories were largely unchanged, pointing to cautious but steady factory momentum. 

·                  Eurozone Inflation Slips Below ECB Target 

o        Eurozone inflation eased to 1.9% in December 2025, falling below the ECB’s 2% target. The slowdown was driven by softer services and non-energy goods inflation, alongside a sharper decline in energy prices. Food inflation edged slightly higher, while core inflation fell to 2.3%, a four-month low. Inflation cooled across Germany, France, and Spain, though Italy recorded a modest uptick, reinforcing expectations of a prolonged ECB policy pause. 

·                  China FDI Declines for Third Straight Year 

o        Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into China fell by 9.5% to CNY 747.77 billion in 2025, extending the contraction for a third consecutive year after a steep drop in 2024. Despite the overall decline, inflows from Switzerland, the UAE, and the UK rose sharply. Manufacturing and services remained the main recipients, while high-tech sectors saw strong growth, particularly e-commerce, medical equipment, and aerospace. Notably, the number of newly established foreign-invested enterprises increased by 19.1% year-on-year. 

GHANA  

·                  Bank of Ghana MPC Convenes First Meeting of 2026 

o        The Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will hold its 128th meeting from today, January 26 to 28, 2026. The Committee will review recent economic and inflation developments to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance. With inflation easing to 5.4% in December 2025, well below the Bank’s target band, market expectations are tilted toward a possible policy rate cut to support economic activity. The outcome of the meeting will be announced through an official press release on Wednesday, January 28, 2026. 

·                  Ghana Secures $152.1m in Foreign Direct Investment in 2025 – GIPC 

o        Ghana attracted $152.1 million in foreign direct investment in 2025 across 26 projects spanning oil and gas, petroleum, agriculture, and road infrastructure, according to the Ghana Investment Promotion Centre (GIPC). The disclosure followed a Japanese business forum held after President John Mahama’s official visit to Japan. GIPC said the engagement underscores Ghana’s commitment to deepening bilateral ties with Japan and boosting FDI inflows. 

AFRICA  

·                  South Africa Inflation Edges Up to 3.6% in December 

o        South Africa’s annual inflation rate rose slightly to 3.6% in December 2025 from 3.5% in November, in line with expectations and within the SARB’s 3% target tolerance band. The uptick was driven by housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and insurance services. Core inflation increased to a ten-month high of 3.3%. Average inflation for 2025 fell to a 21-year low of 3.2%. 

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics