In this week's edition:

·        U.S. Stocks Declined Week-on-Week Amid Flight to Safe-haven Assets.

·        Gold Prices Advanced to a New Record High as Investors Seek Safety Due to Escalating Conflict Between Iran and Israel.

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Records 5% Undersubscription; Yields Decline Across all Tenors.

·        GSE Records Gains After Three-week Losing Streak as Heavily Weighted MTNGH Witnessed Price Uptick. 

• Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - June 16, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        US Core PPI Rises Less than Anticipated

o   Core producer prices in the United States, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.1% over a month in May of 2025, after a revised 0.2% fall in the prior month and below market estimates of a 0.3% increase. From the previous year, core producer prices rose 3% in May, the least since August 2024, slowing from an upwardly revised 3.2% increase in April and below the expected 3.1% advance.

·        Trump Warns of Higher Auto Tariffs to Spur U.S. Investment

o   President Donald Trump last Thursday signaled a possible hike in auto tariffs, saying it could push foreign automakers to invest more in the U.S. Automakers, including the Detroit Three, have urged the White House to ease the current 25% tariffs, especially after a deal cutting tariffs on British car imports excluded Canada and Mexico, but Trump pointed to recent investment pledges, such as GM’s $4 billion plan to upgrade three U.S. plants and shift SUV production from Mexico, and Hyundai’s $21 billion U.S. investment, including a steel plant as reasons why more tariffs are needed.

·        US Budget Deficit Shrinks on Surge in Tariff Revenues

o   The US government recorded a $316 billion budget deficit in May, down 9% from a year earlier, driven in part by a surge in customs receipts to a record $23 billion due to new tariffs imposed by President Trump. Gross customs receipts jumped from $6 billion in May 2024, as the tariffs on imports from most trading partners increased port-of-entry collections. Year-to-date customs revenue rose nearly 60% to $86 billion.

·        US Consumer Sentiment Rebounds in June

o   Preliminary estimates show that the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for the U.S. rose to 60.5 in June 2025, up from a near-record low of 52.2 in both May and April, and significantly exceeding market expectations of 53.5. This marks the first increase in sentiment in six months, driven by broad improvements in both current conditions and future expectations.

·         UK GDP Contracts More than Expected

o   The British economy shrank by 0.3% month-over-month in April 2025, marking its first contraction in six months and the steepest decline since October 2023. This followed a 0.2% growth in March and was worse than the expected 0.1% drop. The downturn was driven by several factors, including higher energy and regulated service costs, increased employers’ National Insurance contributions, a rise in Stamp Duty Land Tax rates, and major tariff announcements from President Trump. The services sector, which played the biggest role in the GDP decline, saw output fall by 0.4%.

·        China to Eliminate Tariffs for African Nations in New Trade Pact

o   China is set to sign a new economic agreement with 53 African nations it maintains diplomatic relations with, aiming to eliminate all tariffs and expand market access beyond just least developed countries (LDCs) to include middle-income nations as well. Although Beijing already provides duty- and quota-free access to many African LDCs, the new pact seeks to create a more level playing field. To help LDCs like Tanzania and Mali compete with more developed countries such as South Africa, China has also committed to providing additional support, including training and marketing assistance.

• GHANA

·        Ghana’s Economy Gains Traction in Q1

o   Ghana’s economy grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, up from 3.6% in the previous quarter. Growth in the industrial sector strengthened to 3.4%, compared with just 0.2% earlier, largely driven by a 5.6% surge in gold production. The agricultural sector—employing around 40% of the workforce—also saw faster growth at 6.6%, up from 2.9% in Q4 2024, boosted by a recovery in cocoa output after six consecutive quarters of decline. Meanwhile, the services sector continued to expand, rising by 5.9%, slightly below the 6.3% increase in the prior quarter.

·        Cedi’s appreciation could lead to revision of programme targets – IMF

o   The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revealed that the cedi’s sharp appreciation against the US dollar in the first half of 2025 could lead to a revision of some of the fund’s programme targets with Ghana. The IMF noted that future programme reviews will provide an opportunity for the team to carefully assess all of the evolving macroeconomic and financial conditions.

• AFRICA

·        Angola Inflation Rate Slows to 2023-Lows

o   The annual inflation rate in Angola continued to decelerate to reach 20.74% in May 2025, the lowest since December 2023, easing from 22.32% in the prior month. The stabilization of the kwanza has helped contain imported inflation, while elevated interest rates and improved availability of consumer goods have supported a sustained disinflationary trend since July 2024.

·        Kenya Cuts Rates for Sixth Straight Meeting

o   The Central Bank of Kenya lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 9.75% in June 2025, marking a sixth consecutive cut. The Monetary Policy Committee noted that inflation eased to 3.8% in May from 4.1% in April, staying below the 5±2.5% target midpoint. The decision aimed to support lending and economic activity, with the bank citing room for further monetary easing.

                  Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        U.S. Stocks Extend Gains as Jobs Data Reflects Labour Market Resilience

·        Gold Edges Up 0.64% W/W, Supported by Safe-Haven Demand Despite Improving Economic Sentiment and New US Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Records 34.39% Undersubscription; Yields Stable at Short End but Continue Declining at Longer Tenors

·        GSE Extends Three-Week Losing Streak Amid Deepening MTNGH Slump; GSE-CI Falls to 22.83% YTD While Financial Stocks Index Shows Resilience, Rising to 36.29%

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - June 9, 2025

 AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        US Jobs Report Beats Expectations Despite Slowdown

o   US nonfarm payrolls rose by 139K in May 2025, topping forecasts of 130K but slowing from April’s 147K. Gains were led by health care, leisure, and social assistance, while manufacturing and federal jobs declined. March and April's figures were revised downwards by 95K. The labor market remains solid but may face pressure from Trump-era policy changes.

·        US Consumer Credit Growth Beats Forecasts

o   US consumer credit rose by $17.87 billion in April 2025, far exceeding expectations. Revolving credit (e.g., credit cards) jumped at a 7% annual rate, signaling stronger consumer spending, while nonrevolving credit (e.g., auto and student loans) grew at a slower 3.3% rate, reflecting steady but cautious borrowing for big-ticket items.

·        Eurozone GDP Growth Hits 2-Year High

o   The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.6% in Q1 2025, the fastest pace since Q3 2022 and double the initial 0.3% estimate. Growth was led by Ireland’s 9.7% surge and solid performances from Germany and Spain. Fixed investment rose sharply, while household spending moderated. Net trade contributed positively, though inventories dragged slightly on overall growth.

·        China Consumer Prices Fall for Fourth Straight Month

o   China’s CPI fell 0.1% year-on-year in May 2025, extending its deflation streak to four months amid weak domestic demand and trade tensions. Food prices dropped 0.4%, while non-food prices remained flat. Core inflation rose to 0.6%, the highest since January. On a monthly basis, CPI slipped 0.2%, reversing April’s 0.1% gain.

·        Japan Q1 GDP Revised Up, But Growth Stalls

o   Japan’s economy showed no growth in Q1 2025, better than the initial -0.2% estimate but down from 0.6% in Q4 2024. Consumer spending edged up 0.1% and business investment rose 1.1%. However, government spending fell 0.5% and net trade dragged on growth as exports declined and imports surged ahead of U.S. tariffs.

·        Russia Cuts Interest Rate by 100bps to 20%

o   The Bank of Russia slashed its key rate by 100bps to 20% on June 6, citing easing inflation, now at 9.8%. A stronger ruble and tight policy helped slow consumer price growth, though food and service inflation remain high. The Bank pledged to maintain tight conditions to return inflation to 4% by 2026.

• GHANA

·        Ghana’s Inflation Falls to 18.4% in May 2025, Lowest Since Early 2022

o   Ghana's annual inflation rate fell to 18.4% in May 2025, down from 21.2% in April, marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest since February 2022 . The decrease was driven by lower transportation costs and reduced non-food inflation . Despite the improvement, inflation remains above the Bank of Ghana's 6–10% target range.

·        GRA to Implement GH₵1 Fuel Levy from June 16, 2025

o   The Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA) will implement a GH₵1.00 per litre fuel levy starting June 16, 2025, following consultations with oil marketers who requested a delay from the original June 9 date. The new levy aims to address energy sector debts and will apply to petroleum products lifted on or after this date, with rates revised under the Energy Sector Levies Act.

•  AFRICA

·        South Africa’s Current Account Deficit Narrows Slightly in Q1

o   South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed to R35.6 billion ($2 billion) in Q1 2025 from a revised R39.3 billion, defying expectations of a wider gap. The deficit remained at 0.5% of GDP, better than the 0.7% forecast. A slightly lower trade surplus and improved terms of trade contributed to the outcome, per central bank data.

·        Nigeria–U.S. Trade Hits $13bn, 2nd Largest in Africa — U.S. Envoy

o   U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria, Richard Mills, has reaffirmed America’s commitment to boosting trade and investment in Africa, noting Nigeria ranked second in U.S. trade partnerships on the continent with $13 billion in goods and services exchanged in 2024. Speaking at Lagos Business School, Mills said the Trump-led administration is refocusing U.S. strategy in Africa. 

·                  Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        US Stocks Rebound Following Court Ruling Against Trump’s Tariff Policies

·        Gold Pulls Back with a 2.03% Weekly Decline as Strong Economic Data Temper Safe-Haven Demand Amid Trade War Risks

·        Ghana’s Treasury Accepts All Bids but Records 9.06% Undersubscription as Yields Continue to Decline Across the Curve

·        Broader Market Weakens Further as MTNGH Sell-Off Deepens; GSE-CI Drops to 25.81% YTD, While Financial Stocks Index Maintains Momentum, Rising to 35.13%

• Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - June 2, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        US Economy Contracts Slightly in Q1, Revised Data Shows

o   The US economy shrank by 0.2% on an annualized basis in Q1 2025, less than the initially reported 0.3% decline. The revision reflects stronger fixed investment (+7.8%) and export growth (+2.4%) but was weighed down by weak consumer spending (+1.2%) and a sharp surge in imports (+42.6%) ahead of new tariffs. Federal spending also fell by 4.6%, marking its steepest drop since early 2022.

·        US PCE Inflation Cools in April 2025

o   US PCE inflation rose by 0.1% in April 2025, matching expectations and indicating stable price growth. Core PCE also increased by 0.1%. Annually, headline inflation eased to 2.1%, the lowest in seven months, while core inflation dropped to 2.5%, a four-year low. The data signals cooling inflation and strengthens the case for a possible Federal Reserve rate cut.

·        OPEC+ Announces an Increase in Output

o   OPEC+ announced it will increase oil output in July by the same amount as in the past two months, alleviating concerns of a larger hike. On Saturday, the group agreed to add 411,000 barrels per day, signaling a continued strategic shift that has contributed to falling crude prices. The move is seen as a way to rein in overproducing members like Iraq and Kazakhstan, while enabling major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia to regain market share.

·        Eurozone Credit Growth Hits 11-Month High

o   Eurozone bank lending accelerated in April 2025, with household loans rising by 1.9% YoY and business loans up by 2.6%—both marking the fastest growth since mid-2023. Overall credit to the private sector expanded by 2.7%, driven by stronger demand amid ECB policy easing.

·        China Factory Contraction Eases in May 2025

o   China’s official manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.5 in May from 49.0 in April, signaling a slower pace of contraction and aligning with market forecasts. Output returned to growth (50.7), aided by a temporary trade truce and domestic stimulus. Although new orders, exports, and employment remained in decline, the rates eased. Input and selling prices posted the steepest declines in eight months, indicating deflationary pressures. Despite persistent weakness, business confidence improved to 52.5, hinting at cautious optimism ahead.

·        Canada GDP Beats Expectations in Q1 2025

o   Canada's economy grew by 0.5% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, matching Q4’s pace and exceeding forecasts. Growth was largely driven by strong net exports (+1.6%) and a sharp rise in business inventories (+$8.7B), as firms rushed to beat US tariffs. However, core domestic demand softened—household spending slowed to 0.3% (from 1.2%), and government spending fell by 0.8%. On an annualized basis, GDP rose by 2.2%, well above the 1.7% forecast.

GHANA

·        BoG Disburses $20 Million to BDCs in Latest Forex Auction to Support Fuel Imports

o   The Bank of Ghana (BoG) released $20 million to six Bulk Oil Distribution Companies (BDCs) in its recent foreign exchange auction. This move aims to support fuel imports and stabilise the cedi. BoG plans to auction a total of $120 million to BDCs in Q2 2025 to ensure steady petroleum supply.

·        Fuel Prices to Drop by up to 9% as Cedi Strengthens

o   Ghana’s fuel prices are set to fall by 5-9% in the next pricing window, mainly due to the Cedi’s recent appreciation against the US Dollar, says the Africa Sustainable Energy Centre. Petrol may sell for GH¢12.00–12.60 per litre and diesel GH¢12.60–13.20. Lower crude prices also contribute but the Cedi’s strength is the key driver.

 AFRICA

·        Moody’s Upgrades Nigeria’s Credit Rating to B3

o   Moody’s upgraded Nigeria’s credit rating from Caa1 to B3, citing improved external and fiscal positions and easing inflation risks. The outlook was revised from positive to stable, reflecting expected slower progress if oil prices fall. Nigeria’s S&P rating remains at B- with a stable outlook.

·        South Africa Cuts Interest Rate to 7.25% Amid Improved Inflation Outlook

o   The South African Reserve Bank cut its key rate by 25 bps to 7.25% in May 2025, citing easing inflation and weaker growth. Inflation is now projected at 3.2% in 2025, while growth was revised down to 1.2%. Policymakers aim to anchor inflation expectations closer to 3%, the lower end of the target range.

·        Kenya Inflation Eases to 3.8% in May

o   Kenya's annual inflation rate slowed to 3.8% in May 2025 from 4.1% in April, staying well within the central bank's target range of 2.5% to 7.5%. The deceleration was driven by slower price increases for food and non-alcoholic beverages (6.3% vs 7.1%). Transport inflation held steady at 2.3%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.5%, up from a 0.3% increase in April.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week’s edition: 

·                  US Stocks Decline Amid Escalating Trade Tensions, While European Markets See Mixed Performance 

·                  Gold Rebounds with 4.80% Weekly Gain as Trade Tensions and Weak US Fiscal Outlook Drive Safe-Haven Demand 

·                  Ghana’s Treasury Auction Oversubscribed by 7.63%, Though Yields Continue to Decline Across the Curve 

·                  MTNGH Drives Sharpest Weekly Market Pullback in Four Years; GSE-CI Falls to 29.97% YTD, Financial Stocks Index Up to 33.37%

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - May 26, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE    

·                  US Manufacturing Activity Rebounds Sharply in May 

o        The S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 in May 2025, the highest since February and beating expectations. The uptick reflected renewed production growth and a 15-month high in new orders. Inventory buildup and longer delivery times boosted the index, though employment declined again. Selling prices and input costs also surged at the fastest pace in over 18 months.  

·                  US New Home Sales Surge in April 

o        Sales of new single-family homes in the US jumped 10.9% in April 2025 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 743,000 units, beating expectations and hitting the highest level since February 2022. Strong gains were seen in the South and Midwest, while the Northeast declined. The median home price rose 0.8% to $407,200, with inventory at 8.1 months’ supply.  

·                  Eurozone Private Sector Activity Contracts in May 

o        The Eurozone Composite PMI dropped to 49.5 in May 2025 from 50.4 in April, marking the first private sector contraction this year and missing expectations of 50.7. Services declined to 48.9, while factory activity eased its fall to 49.4, the softest contraction in nearly three years. New orders fell amid tariff concerns, with business confidence hitting a 19-month low. 

·                  UK Private Sector Activity Contracts for Second Month in May 

o        The S&P Global UK Composite PMI edged up to 49.4 in May 2025 from 48.5 in April but remained below 50, signaling a second consecutive month of private sector contraction. Manufacturing activity fell sharply to 45.1, the worst in 19 months, while services saw a slight rebound. New orders dropped to a 2.5-year low amid rising global uncertainty and tariffs. Rising costs and weak demand led to the fastest job cuts in factories in five years. 

·                  Canadian Retail Sales Continue Upward Trend 

o        Canadian retail sales likely rose 0.5% month-on-month in April 2025, following a revised 0.8% gain in March to C$69.8 billion—the strongest growth this year. Gains were broad-based, led by motor vehicles and parts (+4.8%), clothing (+2.6%), furniture and electronics (+2.1%), and building materials (+2.6%). Gasoline and food retail sales declined amid lower prices. 

·                  Japan Inflation Steady at 3.6% in April 

o        Japan’s annual inflation held steady at 3.6% in April 2025, the lowest since December. Food price growth eased despite rice costs surging 94.8% year-on-year. Inflation moderated for clothing and education but rose for energy and services as subsidies tapered off. Core inflation climbed to a 27-month high of 3.5%, while monthly CPI increased 0.1%. 

GHANA  

·                  BoG Holds Policy Rate Steady at 28% 

o        The Bank of Ghana (BoG) maintained its policy rate at 28% during its latest meeting, signaling a continued focus on controlling inflation and stabilizing the cedi. The decision reflects cautious monetary policy amid ongoing economic challenges, aiming to balance growth support with price stability in the near term. 

·                   IMF to Disburse $360 Million to Ghana in June 2025 

o        The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is poised to release $360 million to Ghana in June 2025, pending approval by the IMF Executive Board on June 3. This disbursement follows a staff-level agreement on the fourth review of Ghana’s $3 billion Extended Credit Facility, supporting ongoing economic stabilization efforts in the country. 

AFRICA  

·                  South Africa Building Permits Decline 6.7% in March  

o        The value of building plans approved in South Africa dropped 6.7% year-on-year to ZAR 7.29 billion in March 2025. Non-residential permits led the decline, falling 17.3%, with shopping space down 21% and other structures plunging 46.5%. Approvals for additions dropped 8%, while residential permits saw a slight 0.7% decrease. 

·                  Kenyan Banks Intensify Auctions as Bad Loans Reach Sh717 Billion 

o        Kenyan banks have stepped up auctioning of assets to recover rising non-performing loans, which have surged to Sh717 billion. The increase in bad debts reflects growing credit risk amid economic challenges. Lenders are increasingly relying on asset sales to manage loan defaults and shore up balance sheets as the banking sector faces mounting pressure. 

·                  Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics