In this week's edition:

• U.S. Stocks Closed in the Green, Amid Expectations of a Strong Earnings Season.
• Gold Prices Rose by 1.28%, as Investors Weighed a Softer US Dollar Against the Prospect of a Fed Rate Hike.
• Ghana’s Treasury Auction Oversubscribed by 53.37% as Yields Decline Further Across the Curve.
• GSE-CI Falls by 0.13% w/w to 60.24% YTD as Sell-off in Heavyweight MTNGH Weighed on the Broader Index.

AROUND THE GLOBE   

• US 10-Year Treasury Yield Edges Up
  • The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged up to 5.26% on Friday, following a volatile session on Thursday, when the benchmark yield fell 6 bps from its highest level since 2002. Investors continued to assess developments in the Middle East and their implications for energy prices and inflation. Oil prices eased after US President Trump pledged to refrain from attacking Iran until after the midterm elections.
• US Mortgage Rates Climb to Highest Since 2023
  • The US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.4% as of October 8th, 2026, rising further above 7% to reach its highest level since November 2023 and up from 7.28% in the previous week. This marks the seventh consecutive week with rate increases, as an intensifying selloff in the bond market amid expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates has kept 10-Year Treasury yields at their highest level in decades.
• ECB Keeps Rate Path Open Amid Inflation Uncertainty
  • ECB policymakers saw inflation risks skewed to the upside when they delivered their first rate hike since 2023 at the September meeting, but stressed the importance of not signaling any further policy moves and keeping all options open, according to the meeting accounts released last Thursday. Officials warned that eurozone inflation could come in higher than projected, but stressed the importance of avoiding guidance on the future interest-rate path given the high uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook and range of possible scenarios due to the ongoing fighting between the US and Iran, as well as Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• Offshore Yuan Rises as PBoC Defends Policy
  • The offshore yuan rose to around 6.69 per dollar last Friday, after holding steady for two consecutive sessions as China defended its exchange-rate policy amid trade talks with the European Union. EU officials have increasingly pointed to exchange-rate imbalances, arguing that the yuan’s undervaluation bolsters Chinese exporters’ competitiveness and exacerbates the bloc’s widening trade deficit with China, which exceeds €1 billion ($1.12 billion) a day.

GHANA

• Ghana Inflation Rate Rises for 2nd Month
  • The annual inflation rate in Ghana rose to 5.2% in September 2026 from 5% in August, accelerating for a second consecutive month. Food inflation picked up to 4% from 3% in the prior month. In contrast, non-food inflation slowed to 6.2% from 6.8%, while inflation for services softened to 8.3% from 8.6%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.8%, doubling from a 0.4% rise the month before.
• Moody’s Raises Ghana’s Credit Rating
  • Moody’s Ratings upgraded Ghana’s sovereign credit rating as the nation’s sustained fiscal reforms post debt restructuring, help to tame inflation and reduce debt burden. The country’s long-term foreign currency score was raised to B3 from Caa1, the ratings firm said last Friday. The outlook was moved to stable from positive. Africa’s top gold producer is currently assessed at B- by S&P Global Ratings and B by Fitch Ratings.

AFRICA

• Central Bank of Kenya Leaves Rates Steady
  • The central bank of Kenya left its key interest rate steady at 8.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting in October 2026, saying it saw inflation staying within its target range in the short term despite edging up in the past three months. Inflation in Kenya reached 6.8% in September 2026, its highest level since January 2024. Policymakers noted that government interventions, including subsidies and the temporary reduction of VAT on fuel, continue to mitigate inflationary pressures. The central bank also revised upwards its 2026 growth forecast to 5% from 4.9% seen in August, with El Niño representing a key risk to growth.
• South Africa Manufacturing Production Falls Again
  • Manufacturing production in South Africa declined 4.3% year-on-year in August 2026, reversing a 1.1% rise in July. The largest negative contributions came from petroleum, chemical products, rubber and plastic products (-5%); motor vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment (-8.8%); wood and wood products, paper, publishing and printing (-7%); food and beverages (-3%); and basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery (-3%).

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economic

In this week's edition:

• U.S. Stock Indices Closed Higher as Easing Oil Prices Halted the Rise in Treasury Yields.
• Gold Prices Fell More than 1% w/w as Elevated U.S. Treasury Yields and Expectations of Further Fed Rate Hikes Weighed on the Metal.
• Ghana’s Treasury Auction Oversubscribed by 5.34% as Yields Decline Further Across the Curve.
• Ghanaian Equities Extend Losing Streak: GSE-CI Falls 2.95% w/w to 58.34% YTD as MTNGH Sell-Off Weighs on Market.

 AROUND THE GLOBE   

• U.S. Current Account Deficit Widens to $246 Billion in Q2
  • The U.S. current account deficit widened to $246.0 billion in Q2 2026, from a revised $212.6 billion in Q1, reflecting a larger goods trade shortfall as imports increased more than exports. The deficit represented 3.0% of GDP, up from 2.7% in the previous quarter. The goods deficit expanded to $291.3 billion, partly offset by a $91.5 billion services surplus and narrower primary and secondary income deficits. The data highlight continued external imbalances, with stronger import growth driving the deterioration in the current account.
• US–China Trade Truce Extended to January 2027
  • The United States and China extended their trade truce to January 10, 2027, prolonging tariff relief and the flow of rare-earth materials beyond the original November expiry. The extension provides additional time for negotiations on outstanding trade commitments ahead of further discussions between Washington and Beijing. The agreement reduces near-term trade uncertainty and supports continued bilateral trade, although longer-term tariff arrangements remain unresolved.
• U.S. Private Sector Growth Hits Five-Year High in September
  • U.S. private-sector activity accelerated sharply in September, with the S&P Global Flash Composite PMI rising to 58.4 from 56.0 in August, marking the strongest expansion since July 2021. Growth was broad-based, led by services, where activity reached a five-year high, while manufacturing also strengthened. New orders and employment increased, with backlogs rising at their fastest pace since May 2022. However, inflationary pressures intensified as input costs rose at the fastest pace in nearly four years, driven by higher energy and transport costs, reinforcing concerns over persistent price pressures.
• Eurozone Business Activity Accelerates to Three-Year High
  • Eurozone business activity accelerated in September, with the S&P Global Composite PMI rising to 53.1 from 52.0 in August, exceeding expectations of 51.7. The reading marked the third consecutive month of expansion and the strongest growth in nearly three-and-a-half years, supported by improving manufacturing and services activity. Germany recorded its fastest expansion in almost a year, while France returned to growth after 10 months of contraction. New orders increased at their fastest pace since May 2022, although rising input and output prices point to renewed inflationary pressures.

GHANA

• Bank of Ghana Holds Policy Rate at 14%
  • The Bank of Ghana maintained its benchmark policy rate at 14.0% in September, marking its third consecutive pause. The MPC cited broadly balanced risks to inflation and growth, while noting that inflation is projected to rise in coming quarters from 5.0% in August. Governor Johnson Asiama highlighted risks from higher global energy and fertiliser prices linked to the Middle East conflict, alongside vulnerabilities in the current account and international reserves. The Bank emphasised rebuilding external buffers to strengthen resilience against potential external shocks.

AFRICA

• Nigeria Cuts Policy Rate by 350bps to 23%
  • The Central Bank of Nigeria cut its Monetary Policy Rate by 350bps to 23%, the largest reduction since 2007, following two consecutive holds. The CBN said the adjustment aims to restore effective monetary policy transmission as market rates had diverged from the benchmark. The move comes as inflation eased to 15.39% in August, its third consecutive monthly decline. Governor Cardoso expects further moderation, supported by exchange-rate stability, improved inflation expectations, and the effects of previous tightening.
• South Africa Raises Repo Rate to 7.25%
  • The South African Reserve Bank raised its repo rate by 25bps to 7.25%, unanimously, citing upside inflation risks. Inflation rose to 4.4% in August, with fuel prices expected to push headline inflation above 5% later this year and early 2027. The SARB raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.4% while projecting a return to 3% by late 2027. Meanwhile, the 2026 growth forecast was cut to 1.2% from 1.4%, reflecting weaker economic conditions and global shocks.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

• U.S. Stocks Closed Mixed, as Rising Treasury Yields Offset a Weaker-Than-Expected Jobs Report.
• Gold Prices Fell by 3.35%, as Weak Jobs Data Reinforced Expectations of Unchanged Fed Rates at the Upcoming Meeting.
• Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed by 20.90% as Yields Decline Further Across the Curve.
• Ghanaian Equities Break Six-Week Losing Streak: GSE-CI Rises 1.33% w/w to 60.45% YTD Despite Financial Sector Weakness.

AROUND THE GLOBE   

• Global Food Prices Rise to Nearly Four-Year High
  • The FAO Food Price Index rose for a third consecutive month to 136 in September, its highest level since November 2022. Sugar prices surged 6.1% amid tightening supply prospects, while cereal prices increased 5.1%, led by a 6.3% rise in wheat due to Black Sea logistical constraints and dry weather in North America. Vegetable oil prices also rose 0.9%, reaching their highest since June 2022. Conversely, meat prices declined 1.1%, while dairy prices were broadly unchanged.
• U.S. Employment Growth Slows Sharply in September
  • The U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below the 90,000 forecast, signalling a marked slowdown in labour-market momentum. The August gain was revised down to 133,000, while July was revised to a 10,000 decline, leaving combined employment for the two months 60,000 below previous estimates. Health care, construction and manufacturing recorded modest gains, while financial activities declined. The weak report reinforces signs of a cooling labour market and could strengthen expectations for further monetary easing.
• Eurozone Inflation Accelerates to Three-Year High
  • Eurozone annual inflation accelerated to 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August and above the 3.6% forecast, reaching its highest level since September 2023. The increase was driven mainly by energy prices, with energy inflation surging to 18.8%, while services and unprocessed food inflation also strengthened. Core inflation edged up to 2.5%. Inflation accelerated across major economies, including Germany, France, Spain and Italy, reinforcing near-term challenges for the ECB’s disinflation efforts.
• Eurozone Unemployment Rate Holds at 6.4%
  • The Eurozone’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 6.4% in August, unchanged since February and in line with expectations, indicating continued labour-market resilience despite higher energy costs and interest rates. The number of unemployed rose by 26,000 to 11.36 million, while youth unemployment edged down to 15.0%. Labour-market conditions varied across major economies, with Germany and the Netherlands at 4.0%, compared with 10.0% in Spain and 8.2% in France. The EU-wide unemployment rate also held steady at 6.1%.

GHANA

• Bank of Ghana Exits FX Intermediation as GoldBod Takes Over
  • The Bank of Ghana has exited FX intermediation, with GoldBod assuming full responsibility from October. GoldBod targets US$1.5 billion in FX generation for October, of which US$1.0 billion will be sold to commercial banks to support market stability and up to US$500 million allocated to BoG for reserve accumulation under GANRAP. The programme will operate under GoldBod’s new Spot FX Sales/Intermediation Framework. GoldBod generated US$1.87 billion in September, exceeding its US$1.4 billion target by 34%.

AFRICA

• South Africa Manufacturing Returns to Growth
  • South Africa’s Absa Manufacturing PMI rose sharply to 50.7 in September from 45.8 in August, returning to expansion territory for the first time since May. New orders rebounded to 50.8 from 40.3, while business activity improved to 49.3. However, actual activity remained marginally below the 50 threshold, with employment and order backlogs still weak. Logistics bottlenecks and elevated input costs continued to weigh on manufacturers. Meanwhile, six-month business expectations improved to 55.3, pointing to cautious optimism about the sector’s outlook.
• Senegal Economic Growth Slows to 3.1% in Q2
  • Senegal’s economy expanded 3.1% y/y in Q2 2026, easing from 4.3% growth in Q1 2026. Growth was supported by the tertiary and secondary sectors, while GDP excluding hydrocarbons increased a stronger 6.4%. On the expenditure side, fixed investment and final consumption rose 8.0% and 5.5%, respectively. However, exports declined 2.7% as imports increased 4.8%, weighing on net trade. On a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP grew 0.1% q/q.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

• U.S. Stock Indices Closed Mixed as Rebounding Treasury Yields Rekindled Concerns Over the Macroeconomic Outlook.
• Gold Price Edged Higher W/W, Marking its First Weekly Gain in Four Weeks as Falling Oil Prices Eased Inflation Concerns.
• Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed by 46.33% as High Bid Rejections Persist Despite Further Yield Declines.
• Ghanaian Equities Extend Losing Streak: GSE-CI Falls 2.06% w/w to 63.16% YTD as Broad-Based Selling Persists.
   

 AROUND THE GLOBE   

• Fed Raises Rates by 25 bps, First Time Since 2023
  • The US Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% in September 2026, marking its first hike since 2023. The move reflects persistent inflation, with the Fed projecting 2026 PCE inflation at 3.7% and core inflation at 3.4%. Policymakers also raised their growth forecasts to 2.3% for 2026 and 2.4% for 2027, while lowering unemployment projections to 4.1%. The September projections indicate scope for at least one further 25 bps hike this year, underscoring a more restrictive policy outlook.
• Bank of England Holds Rate at 3.75% Amid Inflation Risks
  • The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 to maintain the Bank Rate at 3.75% in September, with three members favouring a 25-basis-point increase to 4%. The Bank highlighted renewed energy price pressures linked to the prolonged Middle East conflict, which have pushed UK CPI inflation to 3.1% in August and are expected to drive further increases in coming quarters. While second-round effects on wages and prices remain limited, the risk could rise if energy prices stay elevated. The MPC also approved a multi-year programme to unwind its government bond holdings to zero by 2034.
• BOJ Raises Rate to 31-Year High at 1.25%
  • The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its key policy rate by 25bps to 1.25% in a 7–2 vote, taking borrowing costs to their highest level since 1995. The decision reflects persistent inflation pressures, including higher energy costs, and growing concern that underlying inflation could overshoot the 2% target. The hike, the first in three months, was opposed by Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato, highlighting differing views on the pace of policy normalization. Governor Kazuo Ueda kept the door open to further increases, including consecutive hikes, depending on inflation and economic conditions.
• US Export Prices Rebound Sharply in August
  • U.S. export prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month in August 2026, exceeding expectations of 0.5% and reversing a revised 1.4% decline in July. The increase was broad-based, with agricultural export prices rising by 0.5%, supported by higher corn and animal feed prices, while non-agricultural prices increased by 0.7%, led by industrial supplies, capital goods and automotive products. On an annual basis, export prices increased by 8.6%, highlighting continued upward price pressures despite the sharp decline recorded in July.
• Eurozone Current Account Surplus Widens in July
  • The eurozone’s current account surplus increased to €36.5 billion in July 2026, from €29.7 billion a year earlier, supported by stronger goods and services balances. The goods surplus rose to €39.8 billion, while the services surplus increased to €19.3 billion. These gains were partly offset by wider primary and secondary income deficits of €4.4 billion and €18.1 billion, respectively. For the first seven months of 2026, the current account surplus reached €151.1 billion, up from €131.6 billion over the same period in 2025.

GHANA

• Ghana MPC Begins September Policy Meeting
  • The Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has begins its 132nd regular meeting, running from September 22–24, 2026, to assess recent economic and financial developments. The Committee is expected to weigh the recent rise in inflation to 5.0% in August, continued economic growth, exchange-rate stability and easing financial conditions against renewed energy-price and geopolitical risks. The MPC has maintained the policy rate at 14% over its past two meetings. The policy decision and accompanying guidance are scheduled for release at a press conference on September 24.

AFRICA

• Nigeria Inflation Eases for Third Consecutive Month
  • Nigeria’s annual inflation rate eased marginally to 15.39% in August from 15.43% in July, marking its third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since March. Food inflation also fell to 19.57% from 20.31%, recording its first decline in seven months, while the relative strength of the naira provided further support. Core inflation moderated more significantly to 13.29%, its lowest since March 2021. Monthly CPI growth slowed to 0.71% from 1.57%, indicating a broader moderation in near-term price pressures.
• South Africa Inflation Expectations Ease in Q3
  • South Africa’s inflation expectations moderated in the third quarter, following a sharp increase in the previous period amid the global energy shock. Household inflation expectations for the next 12 months eased to 4.0% from 4.2%, while two-year-ahead expectations declined to 3.8% from 3.9%. Professional forecasts for 2027 and 2028 also softened to 4.0% and 3.8%, respectively. The moderation comes as headline inflation eased to 4.3% in July from 5.0% in June, providing a more favourable backdrop for monetary policy.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics