In this week’s edition: 

·                  U.S. Stocks Fell Last Week Amid Geopolitical Concerns, Fed Policy Uncertainty, And the Start of Q4 Earnings Season 

·                  Gold Prices Rose 1.92% W/W After Midweek Record Highs, Supported by Strong US Economic Data and Expectations of Prolonged Tight Monetary Policy 

·                  Ghana’s Treasury Records Eighth Straight Oversubscription at 40.68% as Demand Shifts to the Long End and Yields Firm 

·                  Ghanaian Equities Posted a Marginal Gain Despite MTNGH Pullback, With GSE-CI Up 0.04% W/W And 0.47% YTD 

 Kindly click to view the full report: Global Markets Update - January 19, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE    

·                  World Bank Lifts 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 2.6% 

o        The World Bank expects global GDP growth to reach 2.6% in 2026, slightly higher than its June projection, though easing from 2.7% in 2025 before rebounding in 2027. Upward revisions largely reflect stronger-than-expected US growth, forecast at 2.2% in 2026 despite trade disruptions. While resilience in advanced economies has improved the outlook, the World Bank cautioned that growth remains uneven and too weak overall to meaningfully reduce extreme poverty. 

·                  US Inflation Steady at 2.7%, Core Pressures Ease 

o        US headline inflation held at 2.7% in December 2025, in line with expectations, as easing energy prices offset firmer food and shelter costs. Energy inflation slowed sharply, helped by falling gasoline prices, while used car prices also rose more slowly. Core inflation remained unchanged at 2.6%, the lowest since 2021 and below forecasts. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.3%, driven mainly by shelter, while core inflation increased a softer-than-expected 0.2%. 

·                  UK Economic Growth Rebounds in November 

o        The UK economy grew by 0.3% month-on-month in November 2025, rebounding from October’s contraction and beating expectations. Services led the recovery, rising by 0.3%, driven by strong gains in professional services, information and communication, and trade. Production output increased by 1.1%, supported by a rebound in manufacturing, particularly transport equipment, as car production normalized. In contrast, construction activity fell by 1.3%, extending its recent decline. 

·                  China Q4 GDP Growth Slows, Full-Year Expansion Holds at 5% 

o        China’s economy grew by 4.5% year-on-year in Q4 2025, easing from 4.8% in Q3 and marking the slowest quarterly growth in three years, as weak domestic demand weighed on activity despite continued consumer subsidies. Nonetheless, full-year GDP growth held steady at 5%, in line with Beijing’s official target and matching the 2024 pace. The outcome was supported by a record trade surplus, with strong exports to non-US markets helping to offset pressure from US tariffs. 

GHANA  

·                  Ghana’s Reserves Rise to $13.8 Billion by End-2025 

o        Ghana’s foreign-exchange reserves reached $13.8 billion, providing 5.7 months of import cover, supported by strategic gold purchases, Central Bank Governor Johnson Asiama said. The gold acquisitions helped strengthen the country’s external buffers. With stability restored, the central bank emphasized that 2026 will focus on consolidation and fiscal discipline to maintain economic resilience. 

·                  IMF Confirms Afreximbank-Ghana Deal Meets Debt Criteria 

o        Ghana’s agreement in principle with the African Export‑Import Bank (Afreximbank) to restructure its debt, covering a US$750 million financing facility, meets the comparability of treatment requirement under the G20 Common Framework, the IMF confirmed. The deal is consistent with the objectives of Ghana’s IMF‑supported programme and clears a major hurdle in the country’s broader debt‑restructuring efforts after resolving disputes over the Afreximbank loan signed in 2022.  

AFRICA  

·                  Nigeria’s December Inflation Eases Amid Methodology Revision 

o        Nigeria’s annual inflation fell to 15.2% in December from 17.3% in November after the National Bureau of Statistics revised its methodology to avoid an artificial spike caused by last year’s CPI rebasing. The new approach uses a 12-month reference period with 2024 as the base year, replacing the single-month method. Officials emphasized the change was mathematical, not structural. The Central Bank targets 13% inflation in 2026, with interest rate cuts possible if disinflation persists. 

 Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week’s edition: 

·                  U.S. Stocks Closed 2025 in Positive Territory, Capping a Volatile Year Marked by Tariff Uncertainty Under President Trump and Strong AI-Driven Optimism 

·                  Gold Gained 64.58% Last Year on Trade Tensions, Fed Rate-Cut Expectations, Geopolitical Uncertainty, and Central Bank Buying, but Fell 4.43% W/W at the Start of 2026 on Sell-Off Pressure 

·                  Ghana’s Treasury Marks Sixth Consecutive Week of Oversubscription at 5.58%, With Mixed Yield Movements Across the Curve 

·                  Ghanaian Equities End the Year in Green: GSE-CI Up 0.16% w/w to 79.40% FY, while the Financial Index Outperformed at 95.19% FY 

 Kindly click to view the full report: Global Markets Update - January 5, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE    

·                  Fed Likely to Reduce Rates This Year 

o        The minutes from the Fed's December meeting showed that most FOMC members believe rate cuts will likely be suitable this year if inflation gradually declines. However, policymakers were split on whether the bigger risk is persistent inflation or rising unemployment. Some members expressed more concern about entrenched inflation possibly needing higher interest rates, while others favored larger rate cuts to address a weakening labor market. At the December meeting, the federal funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%–3.75%, which matched market expectations and marked the third and final cut of 2025. 

·                  US Jobless Claims Drop to Near-Year Lows  

o        Initial jobless claims in the US fell by 16,000 to 199,000 in the week ending December 27, a typically volatile period due to the holiday season, and well below market expectations of 220,000. The reading marked the lowest level since January, excluding the seasonally volatile Thanksgiving week, when claims briefly dipped to a three-year low of 192,000. Continuing claims also declined, falling to 1.89 million in the week ending December 20 from a downwardly revised 1.91 million in the prior period.  

·                  Eurozone Manufacturing Contraction Worse Than Expected 

o        The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.8 in December 2025, signalling the fastest contraction since March and falling below previous estimates and November’s reading. Output and new orders declined, especially in Germany. Italy and Spain stayed in contraction, while France saw its strongest expansion since June 2022. Regional employment kept falling; job losses have lasted over two-and-a-half years, with declining backlogs indicating adequate capacity. Sales weakened despite discounts, input cost inflation hit a 16-month high, but firms remain most optimistic about the year ahead since before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 

·                  China's Services PMI Reaches Highest Level in Four Months 

o        China’s NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in December 2025 from 49.5 in November, the highest since August and above expectations. This suggests government efforts boosted demand and supported service activity. New orders and employment declined but at a slower pace, while foreign demand remained weak. Supplier delivery times were stable, input costs rose modestly, and selling prices fell further. Overall sentiment hit a nine-month high due to optimism about policy support and domestic demand recovery. 

GHANA  

·                  Cryptocurrency Market Readies for Regulation after Presidential Approval 

o        Ghana’s crypto industry is preparing for formal regulation after the President assented to the VASP Bill 2025, which will introduce the country’s first legal framework for digital assets. Industry players at the WEB3 Accra summit welcomed the move, saying it will boost confidence and growth. The BoG and SEC will regulate the sector, with a two‑year transition period before licensing begins. Experts say regulation will improve security, protect users, and support innovation, while groups like Binance push for public education. 

AFRICA  

·                  Nigeria's Private Sector Continues Strong Growth 

o        Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria's PMI slipped slightly to 53.5 in December 2025 from 53.6 in November, yet still indicated strong monthly growth. Increased new orders, output, and purchasing activities pointed to greater customer demand. Although employment rose, job creation remained limited. Inflationary pressures edged up a bit in December but stayed near recent low levels. Importantly, business confidence saw a significant boost, reaching its highest point in six months due to planned investments such as business expansions, new branch openings, and enhanced product exports. 

·                  Kenya's December Inflation Holds at 4.5% 

o        Kenya's inflation rate stayed at 4.5% in December 2025, unchanged from November and below the central bank’s 5% target midpoint for the 19th straight month. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by 7.8%. Inflation was influenced by shifts in transport, housing, and utilities, leading to a 0.6% rise in the Consumer Price Index over the previous month. During the festive season, higher demand caused bus, matatu, and flight fares to increase. 

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        U.S. Stocks Ended Last Week Higher Amid Policy Shifts and Tariff Developments.

·        Ghana's Treasury Receives Record GHS 17.70 billion in Bids Amid Significant Yield Decline.

·        Ghana Stock Exchange Posts 2.08% Weekly Gain, YTD Return Reaches 9.47%.

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - February 17, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        US Producer Prices Rise More than Expected

o   US producer prices rose by 0.4% in January 2025, exceeding forecasts of 0.3%, driven by food and energy costs. Goods prices increased by 0.6%, led by a 10.4% surge in diesel fuel. Service prices rose by 0.3%, with traveller accommodation up by 5.7%. Annual PPI remained at 3.5%, above expectations of 3.2%. Core PPI increased by 0.3% monthly, with the annual rate at 3.6%, surpassing forecasts.

·        UK GDP Grew by 0.9% in 2024

o   The UK economy expanded by 0.9% in 2024, up from 0.4% in 2023, driven by a 1.3% rise in services. Construction growth slowed to 0.4% (from 2.4%), while production shrank by 1.7%, extending the 0.9% fall from 2023. Real GDP per head fell 0.1%. The Bank of England forecasts 0.7% growth in 2025.

·        Euro Area GDP Growth Eked Higher in Q4

o   The Eurozone economy grew by 0.1% in Q4 2024, slightly above the initial estimate. Germany (-0.2%) and France (-0.1%) contracted, while Italy stagnated. Spain (0.8%) and Portugal (1.5%) led growth, with gains in the Netherlands, Belgium, and Slovenia. Ireland’s GDP fell 1.3%. Year-on-year, GDP rose 0.9%, with full-year growth at 0.7%, up from 0.4% in 2023.

·        Japan’s 2024 GDP Growth Weakest in Four Years

o   Japan’s economy grew by just 0.1% in 2024, down from 1.5% in 2023, the weakest since 2020. Private consumption fell, business investment slowed, and exports posted minimal growth. The Bank of Japan’s rate hikes, yen depreciation, and global uncertainties weighed on activity. Japan’s nominal GDP hit JPY 609.29 trillion but fell behind Germany.

·        Russian Inflation Hits 2-Year High

o   Russia’s annual inflation rose to 9.9% in January 2025 from 9.5%, the highest since early 2023. The increase followed a weaker ruble, labour shortages from military mobilization, and soaring deficit spending. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 1.2%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures in the economy.

·        Bank of Russia Holds Rate at 21%

o   The Bank of Russia kept its key rate at 21% in February 2025, citing high inflation and excess demand. Despite previous hike signals, policymakers opted to wait for more data. Inflation expectations remain elevated amid strong growth and labour shortages from military mobilization. Annual inflation hit 10% in early February, reinforcing concerns about economic overheating.

GHANA

·        Ghana’s 2035 Eurobond Hits Record High Following IMF Deal Announcement

o   Ghana’s dollar bonds maturing in 2035 rose by 0.5% to 74.82 cents on the dollar on Friday, reaching their highest level since their launch as part of restructured debt instruments in October 2024. This surge followed news that the Ghanaian government had engaged with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a USD 3.0 billion credit facility, boosting investor confidence. 

AFRICA

·        Kenya to roll over Sh88bn IMF funding to new programme

o   Kenya’s move to roll over Sh88 billion in IMF funding signals a strategic push to secure continued financial support amid fiscal pressures. By extending the last disbursement into the next financial year, the government is clearly preparing for a fresh financing deal when the current program expires in April.

·        South Africa's Business Sentiment Remains Steady Amid Positive Economic Outlook

o   Business sentiment in South Africa remained stable in January, following a significant surge to a decade-high at the close of 2024. This steady outlook reflects continued optimism among firms regarding the country's economic prospects and the performance of its coalition government.

·        Trump’s Energy Policy Poses Threat to Nigeria’s N19.6 Trillion Revenue Target

o   As Nigeria intensifies efforts to implement its N54.9 trillion 2025 budget, experts are raising concerns that President Donald Trump’s energy policy, focused on boosting oil production, could undermine the $75 per barrel oil price assumption central to the budget. The policy’s potential impact could also affect inflation, Diaspora remittances, and other economic factors crucial to the country’s revenue targets.

o        Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week’s edition: 

·                  U.S. stocks Closed Near Fresh Highs, supported by Economic Growth Outlook and Accommodative Monetary Policy 

·                  Gold Prices Rose 4.48%, Driven by Strong Safe-Haven Demand Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Anticipation of US Interest Rate Cuts 

·                  Ghana’s Treasury Marks Fifth Consecutive Week of Oversubscription at 16.67%, With Mixed Yield Movements Across the Curve 

·                  GSE Ends Flat in a Christmas-Shortened Week, Dragged by a Single Financial Counter 

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Markets Update - December 29, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE    

·                  US GDP Growth Hits Two-Year High 

o        The US economy expanded at an annualized 4.3% in Q3 2025, the strongest pace in two years and well above forecasts, accelerating from 3.8% in Q2. Growth was driven by a sharp pickup in consumer spending, solid export growth, and a rebound in government spending. Household demand strengthened across both goods and services, while fixed investment rose modestly despite continued weakness in residential and structures investment. 

·                  US Jobless Claims Drop to Near-Year Lows  

o        Initial jobless claims in the US fell by 10,000 to 214,000 in the week ended December 20, well below expectations and the lowest level this year outside the holiday-affected Thanksgiving period. The decline points to continued labor market resilience despite subdued hiring. However, continuing claims edged up to 1.92 million, suggesting workers are taking longer to find new jobs. Claims filed by federal employees also fell, easing shutdown-related concerns. 

·                  Japan Industrial Output Contracts Sharply 

o        Japan’s industrial production fell by 2.6% m/m in November 2025, a sharp reversal from October’s growth and steeper than market expectations. The decline—the largest since January 2024—reflected weakening external demand and continued inventory adjustments. Major drags came from electrical machinery, motor vehicles, and fabricated metals. On an annual basis, output declined by 2.1%, ending a three-month expansion and marking the steepest y/y contraction since May. 

·                  Russia Manufacturing Remains in Contraction 

o        Russia’s Manufacturing PMI edged down to 48.1 in December 2025, marking a seventh consecutive month of contraction. Output fell at its fastest pace since March 2022, driven by weak domestic demand and persistently declining new and export orders. Firms responded by cutting employment and scaling back input purchases as outlooks softened. Meanwhile, input cost inflation hit a nine-month high, pushing output prices higher. Business sentiment weakened to its lowest level since May 2022.  

GHANA  

·                  Ghana’s GoldBod Surpasses 100-Ton Export Target in 2025 

o        Ghana’s Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) has exceeded its 2025 small-scale gold export target of 100 tonnes, generating over $10 billion in foreign exchange revenues, according to its CEO, highlighting strong performance under the government’s gold reforms. The milestone reflects accelerated exports from the artisanal and small-scale mining sector following the establishment of GoldBod to centralise purchases, improve traceability, and boost official foreign exchange inflows, reinforcing support for the Cedi and macroeconomic stability. 

AFRICA  

·                  Egypt Cuts Interest Rates by 100bps 

o        The Central Bank of Egypt cut its key policy rate by 100bps to 20% on December 25, 2025, marking the first easing since early 2024 as inflationary pressures continue to moderate. The move follows a slowdown in urban inflation to 12.3% in November, driven mainly by softer food prices. Authorities expect real GDP growth of around 5% for 2026 and aim to steer inflation toward the 5–9% target range by Q4 2026, signaling improved macroeconomic confidence. 

·                  Nigeria Secures $1.2 Billion UAE Loan for Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway 

o        Nigeria obtained $1.2 billion in funding from the UAE to finance a 56-kilometer section of the Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway, part of a planned 700-kilometer route linking major economic hubs. Fully underwritten by First Abu Dhabi Bank and insured by the Islamic Corporation for the Insurance of Investment and Export Credit, the loan ensures continued progress on one of Nigeria’s largest infrastructure projects. President Bola Tinubu emphasized ongoing efforts to secure innovative financing for national development. 

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics