In this week's edition:

·        U.S. Stocks Extended the Previous Week’s gains Last Week, as Tech Stocks Rallied on AI optimism

·        Gold Prices Dropped by 2.68% to Record the Second Consecutive Week of Decline Due to Fading Expectations of a Federal Reserve Rate Cut

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction was Undersubscribed by 13.31% Amid Mixed Yield Movements, Although All Bids were Accepted

·        Ghanaian Equities Market Regained Its Bullish Momentum with Seven Gainers Elevating the GSE-CI by 0.22%

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - November 3, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        Trump, Xi Set to Finalize Trade and Tariff Deal

o   President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are expected to seal a long-awaited trade and tariff agreement Thursday in South Korea after months of strained relations. The deal could see the U.S. reduce tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for Beijing’s pledge to curb precursor chemicals used in fentanyl production. Trump also hinted at possible progress on TikTok’s U.S. ownership issue. Beijing expressed readiness to achieve “positive results.” Existing agreements that lowered retaliatory tariffs to roughly 55% on U.S. goods and 10% on Chinese goods, and reopened the rare earth magnet trade, are set to expire on November 10.

·        US Mortgage Rates Fall to 13-Month Low

o   The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.17% as of October 30, 2025 — the lowest since October 2024 and down from 6.19% a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac. The decline followed the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday. “Mortgage rates decreased for the fourth consecutive week. The last few months have brought lower rates, and homebuyers are increasingly entering the market,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

·        Euro Area Inflation Slows to 2.1%, Near ECB Target

o   Euro area inflation eased to 2.1% in October 2025, matching market expectations and down slightly from 2.2% in September, edging closer to the European Central Bank’s 2% goal, preliminary data showed. Food, alcohol, and tobacco prices rose at a slower 2.5% pace (vs 3.0%), driven by declines in both processed (2.4% vs 2.6%) and unprocessed food (3.2% vs 4.7%). Non-energy industrial goods inflation cooled to 0.6% (vs 0.8%), while energy costs fell further by 1.0% (vs -0.4%). Meanwhile, services inflation climbed for a second month to 3.4%, the highest since April, and core inflation stayed steady at 2.4%, just above forecasts of 2.3%.

·        UK House Prices Rise Above Forecasts

o   UK house prices rose 2.4% year-on-year in October 2025, topping forecasts of 2.3% and up from 2.2% in September, Nationwide reported. Prices increased 0.3% month-on-month, beating expectations of no change. Chief Economist Robert Gardner said the market remains resilient despite weak confidence and higher mortgage rates, with steady approvals and strong first-time buyer demand. He added that affordability could improve as income growth outpaces prices, supported by low unemployment and potential Bank Rate cuts.

·        China Manufacturing Growth Below Forecasts

o   China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.6 in October 2025 from September’s 51.2, missing the 50.9 forecast. Slower growth in new orders and output drove the slowdown, with domestic demand supporting orders while exports fell at the fastest pace since May. Employment rose for the first time in seven months, and purchasing activity increased for the fourth month. Input prices climbed moderately, but selling prices fell. Business sentiment slipped to a six-month low amid trade concerns. 

• GHANA

·        BoG to Inject $1B into Forex Market in November

o   The Bank of Ghana will inject $1 billion into the market in November under its FX Intermediation Programme, auctioning about $300 million twice weekly to licensed banks on a spot basis. In October, the BoG injected $1.15 billion, contributing to a 13.9% cedi appreciation against the dollar and a 34.86% YTD gain. The shift to spot, market-neutral auctions has improved dollar supply, market efficiency, and transparency. 

• AFRICA

·        Kenya Inflation Steady at 4.6%

o   Kenya’s annual inflation remained at 4.6% in October 2025, unchanged from September and the highest since June last year. Inflation stayed below the 5% midpoint of the central bank’s target for the 17th consecutive month, supported by weak domestic demand. Core inflation—the central bank’s preferred gauge—slowed to 2.7% from 2.9% in September. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2%, matching the previous month’s pace

·        South Africa PPI Inflation Rises Less than Expected

o   South Africa’s PPI inflation rose to 2.3% in September 2025 from 2.1% in August, below analysts’ forecast of 2.6% and the highest since August 2024. The increase was driven by food, beverages, tobacco, textiles, petroleum, and metals. On a monthly basis, producer prices fell 0.1%, down from a 0.3% rise in August.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        US Stocks Closed Higher Last Week, Boosted by President Trump’s Reassuring Comments That Eased Concerns Over Escalating Trade Tensions with China

·        Gold Posted Its Strongest Week in Five Years, Rising by 5.82% as Investors Sought Safety Amid Heightened Economic Uncertainties

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed by 56.07% as Yields Rise Across the Curve

·        Ghana Stock Market Extends Winning Streak for Sixth Straight Week as GSE-CI Inches Up 0.08% w/w, YTD Return Hits 73.79%

• Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - October 20, 2025

 AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        China Q3 GDP Growth Weakest in a Year

o   China’s economy grew by 4.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025, easing from 5.2% in Q2 2025 and matching forecasts, marking the slowest pace since Q3 2024. Growth momentum weakened amid U.S. trade tensions, a prolonged property downturn, and subdued consumer demand. Industrial output accelerated, while retail sales rose at their slowest in a year. Authorities noted lingering external risks but said year-to-date growth of 5.2% keeps the full-year target within reach.

·        Euro Area Inflation Inches Above ECB Target 

o   Eurozone inflation was confirmed at 2.2% year-on-year in September 2025, rising slightly above the ECB’s 2.0% target after holding steady for three months. Services inflation picked up to 3.2%, while energy costs fell marginally by 0.4%. Food inflation eased to 3.0%, and non-energy industrial goods stayed flat at 0.8%. Core inflation rose to 2.4%, signaling persistent underlying price pressures despite earlier moderation.

·        China Holds LPR Rates Steady for Fifth Straight Month

o   The People’s Bank of China kept its one-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5% in October 2025, both unchanged for a fifth month and in line with expectations. The move followed the Federal Reserve’s shift to easing and ongoing Sino-US trade tensions. Policymakers maintained record-low borrowing costs to support growth, with new Yuan loans more than doubling in September on seasonal demand and policy support.

·        UK Economy Returns to Modest Growth in August 

o   The UK economy expanded by 0.1% month-on-month in August 2025, rebounding from a 0.1% contraction in July and matching expectations. Industrial output rose by 0.4%, led by a 0.7% gain in manufacturing, while mining and quarrying fell by 2.3%. The services sector stagnated for a second month, as strength in administrative and health services was offset by declines in retail, transport, and recreation. Construction output slipped by 0.3% amid weaker maintenance activity.

·        Eurozone Current Account Surplus Narrows in August 

o   The Eurozone’s current account surplus shrank to EUR 13 billion in August 2025 from EUR 25.3 billion a year earlier, driven by a smaller goods surplus (EUR 8 billion vs. 17.1 billion) and a reduced primary income surplus (EUR 2 billion vs. 5 billion). The secondary income deficit widened to EUR 15 billion, while the services surplus rose slightly to EUR 18 billion. Seasonally adjusted, the surplus dropped to EUR 11.9 billion from EUR 29.8 billion in July.

• GHANA

·        IMF Board to Consider Ghana’s 5th Programme Review in December

o   The IMF Executive Board will meet in early December to consider Ghana’s fifth programme review, paving the way for a $380 million disbursement. The approval, once confirmed, will bring total disbursements to over $2.8 billion under Ghana’s $3 billion Extended Credit Facility. The funds will support ongoing reforms aimed at fiscal consolidation, debt sustainability, and economic recovery.

·        Ghana’s Growth Slows to 4.5% in July, Says GSS

o   Ghana’s economy expanded by 4.5% year-on-year in July 2025, according to the Monthly Indicator of Economic Growth (MIEG), a newly introduced high-frequency indicator from the Ghana Statistical Service. That marks a significant drop from the 8.3% growth recorded in July 2024. The slower pace was driven by an industrial sector that barely grew (+0.1%), while agriculture rebounded at 8% and services grew at 6.4%. 

• AFRICA

·        S&P Upgrades Egypt’s Rating to ‘B’; Fitch Maintains Outlook

o   S&P Global raised Egypt’s sovereign credit rating to ‘B’, citing sustained reform momentum and a sharp recovery in GDP growth. The move marks S&P’s first upgrade since Egypt began receiving international financial support in March 2024. Meanwhile, Fitch affirmed its ‘B’ rating, underscoring Egypt’s robust growth prospects and strong backing from global and Gulf partners. Both agencies kept a ‘stable’ outlook, while Moody’s maintained its ‘Caa1’ rating with a positive outlook.

·        Nigeria Inflation Rate Lowest Since May 2022

o   Nigeria’s annual inflation rate eased to 18.02% in September 2025, its lowest level since May 2022, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline. The moderation was driven by higher crude production, stable Naira, and lower food prices during harvest season, alongside favourable base effects. Food inflation fell sharply to 16.87% from 21.87%, while core inflation eased to 19.53% from 20.3% in July.

·        South Africa Retail Sales Growth Slows Sharply in August

o   South Africa’s retail sales growth decelerated to 2.3% year-on-year in August 2025, sharply down from an upwardly revised 5.7% in July. The slowdown was broad-based, with notable declines across general dealers, clothing and footwear, household goods, and hardware segments. Sales of food, beverages and tobacco fell by 3.7%, while pharmaceutical and medical goods rebounded by 4.1%. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail trade contracted by 1.2% following a 2.3% growth in July.

                  Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        U.S. Stocks Closed at Record Highs Last Week, Driven by Softer-Than-Expected Inflation Data and Hopes of Rate Cuts Later This Year

·        Gold Prices Dropped by 3.26 w/w as Weaker U.S. CPI Data Boosted Expectations of Lower Interest Rates, Reducing Demand for the Safe-Haven Asset

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed by 24.88% Amid Mixed Yield Movements Although All Bids were Accepted

·        Heavyweight MTNGH Drags the Ghana Stock Market Lower to Snap a Six-Week Winning Streak as GSE-CI Slips 1.52% w/w; YTD Gains Ease to 71.16%

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - October 27, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE  

·        US Inflation Eases Slightly Below Expectations

o   The annual inflation rate in the US rose to 3.0% in September 2025 from 2.9% in August, below forecasts of 3.1% and marking the highest reading since January. Energy prices climbed by 2.8%, the most since May 2024, led by fuel oil and gasoline, while food and transportation costs rose more slowly. Core inflation eased to 3.0% from 3.1%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose by 0.3% and core CPI increased by 0.2%, both below expectations.

·        UK Inflation Holds Steady at 3.8% in September 

o   The UK’s annual inflation rate stayed unchanged at 3.8% in September 2025, below market expectations of 4%. Higher transport and hospitality costs offset slower price growth in food, recreation, and housing. Core inflation eased slightly to 3.5% from 3.6%, while monthly CPI was flat. The data suggests inflationary pressures remain contained, supporting expectations that the Bank of England could maintain a cautious policy stance in the coming months.

·        US Manufacturing PMI Rises to 10-Month High 

o   The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.2 in October 2025 from 52.0 in September, slightly above expectations. The reading marked the ninth expansion in ten months and the strongest since December 2024, driven by faster output growth and the sharpest rise in new orders in 20 months. However, employment growth softened to a three-month low, and inventories expanded only slightly, while supplier delivery times improved modestly.

·        Euro Area Manufacturing Activity Stabilizes in October

o   The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.0 in October 2025 from 49.8 in September, beating expectations of 49.5 and signaling a stabilization in factory activity. Output expanded for an eighth straight month, while new orders steadied after prior declines. However, employment fell at the fastest pace in four months, and business confidence softened. Input costs edged up, prompting firms to raise selling prices for the first time in six months.

·        China FDI Falls 10.4% in First Nine Months of 2025 

o   Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into China declined by 10.4% year-on-year to CNY 573.75 billion (USD 80.9 billion) in January–September 2025, reflecting global economic headwinds. The services sector attracted the bulk of inflows (CNY 410.93 billion), followed by manufacturing (CNY 150.09 billion). High-tech industries drew CNY 170.84 billion, led by e-commerce (+155.2%) and aerospace manufacturing (+38.7%). Notably, FDI from Japan and the UAE surged, while September alone saw an 11.2% annual rise.

• GHANA

·        Ghana Seeks $200 Premium for EUDR-Compliant Cocoa

o   Ghana plans to charge a $200-per-ton premium for sustainably grown and traceable cocoa as it aligns with the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). According to Barnett Quaicoo, Deputy Managing Director of the Cocoa Marketing Company, the premium reflects the cost of compliance and traceability. Ghana has invested in digital systems to verify cocoa origins, and major buyers are reportedly willing to pay the surcharge to avoid EU penalties.

·        Ghana Targets GH¢75.7bn in Domestic Borrowing for Q4

o   The Government of Ghana plans to raise GH¢75.7 billion from the domestic market in Q4 2025. Of this, GH¢67.5 billion will refinance maturing debt, while GH¢8.2 billion will support new spending. Instruments include treasury bills and reopened bonds. The move comes amid missed auction targets and liquidity concerns, testing investor confidence and fiscal resilience as the government navigates debt servicing and economic stabilization. 

• AFRICA

·        South Africa Inflation Rises Slightly, Stays Within Target

o   South Africa’s annual inflation rate edged up to 3.4% in September 2025 from 3.3% in August, remaining comfortably within the SARB’s 3–6% target range and slightly below market expectations of 3.5%. Price growth quickened for housing and utilities, restaurants, and miscellaneous goods, while fuel and food inflation eased. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.2%, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in August.

·        Nigerians Spend 70% of Income on Transport, Energy

o   The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) reports that rising transport and energy costs now consume over 70% of household income, slashing demand for manufactured goods. Unsold inventory surged 87.72% to ₦2.14 trillion in 2024. Real investment dropped 35.3%, while naira depreciation raised import costs. MAN also criticized low government patronage of local products, warning the trend threatens industrial growth and economic stability.

   Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        U.S. Stocks Fell as President Donald Trump’s New Tariff Threat Shook Markets

·        Gold Gained 3.38% W/W, Marking an Eighth Straight Rise on Safe-Haven Demand

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Records 20.26% Oversubscription, with Mixed Yield Movements Across the Curve

·        Ghana Stock Market Extends Rally for Fifth Consecutive Week as GSE-CI Gains 0.93% w/w, YTD Return Reaches 73.65%

• Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - October 13, 2025

 AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        US Moves to Impose 100% Tariffs on Chinese Imports Starting November

o   The White House announced plans to apply a sweeping 100% tariff on all Chinese imports beginning November 1, amid escalating tensions over China’s new rare-earth export restrictions. Beijing blasted the measure as a trade escalation and promised “resolute measures” in response. The decision sent markets reeling—U.S. equity indices fell sharply as investors braced for global supply chain and inflationary disruptions.

·        ECB Sees Policy as Appropriate Amid Balanced Risks

o   The European Central Bank (ECB) judged its current policy stance as consistent with its 2% medium-term inflation goal, minutes from the September meeting showed. While views on inflation risks were mixed, officials agreed rates are sufficiently restrictive to manage potential shocks. Policymakers noted growth remains weak despite a resilient economy, with risks from geopolitical tensions and rising defense spending. The ECB has cut rates by 200 bps since mid-2024.

·        US 1-Year Inflation Expectations Edge Lower in October 

o   The University of Michigan’s preliminary survey for October 2025 shows that year-ahead inflation expectations eased for the second consecutive month, declining to 4.6% from 4.7% in September. Meanwhile, the five-year inflation outlook held steady at 3.7%, signaling that long-term inflation expectations remain anchored despite short-term fluctuations.

·        China’s Exports Surge to 6-Month High in September

o   China’s exports rose 8.3% year-on-year to $328.6 billion in September 2025, the strongest growth since March and well above market expectations of 6%. The rebound reflected improved demand from key Asian and European markets, offsetting a 27% slump in shipments to the U.S. amid ongoing trade tensions. Export gains were led by cars, integrated circuits, and fertilizers, while rare earth exports declined by 7.6%. Year-to-date exports grew 6.1%, reaching $2.78 trillion.

·        Canada’s Jobless Rate Holds at 7.1% as Employment Rebounds

o   Canada’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.1% in September 2025, slightly below expectations of 7.2%. Despite coming in below expectation, the unemployment rate is at its highest level since Agust 2021. Employment rebounded by 60,400 jobs (+0.3%), driven by a strong gain of 106,100 full-time positions that offset a 45,600 drop in part-time work. The employment rate edged up to 60.6%, while labor force participation rose to 65.2%, signaling modest improvement in labor market conditions after two months of declines.

• GHANA

·        Moody’s Upgrades Ghana’s Credit Rating; Assigns Stable Outlook

o   Moody’s has upgraded Ghana’s long-term foreign currency rating to Caa1 from Caa2, citing improved debt sustainability and macroeconomic stability under the IMF-supported reform program. The outlook was revised to stable, reflecting stronger fiscal discipline, successful debt restructuring, and rising reserves. The upgrade underscores Ghana’s economic recovery, with lower inflation, a firmer Cedi, and improved investor confidence, enhancing market sentiment.

·        IMF Staff Reach Agreement on Ghana’s Fifth Programme Review

o   The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached a staff-level agreement with Ghana on the fifth review of its $3 billion programme, paving the way for a $385 million disbursement pending Executive Board approval. This will bring total disbursements to over $2.8 billion, supporting Ghana’s ongoing recovery efforts. The IMF said macroeconomic stabilization is strengthening, with stronger-than-expected growth in H1 2025 driven by services and agriculture. The external sector has also improved on the back of robust gold and cocoa exports. The Fund projects growth of 4.8% in 2026, with inflation expected to stay within the Bank of Ghana’s target band.

·        BoG Gold Reserves Rise to 37.06 Tonnes, up 21.3% YTD

o   Ghana’s gold reserves increased to 37.06 tonnes in September 2025, up 21.3% since January, according to the Bank of Ghana. The steady buildup, driven by the Domestic Gold Purchase Programme (DGPP), aims to strengthen FX reserves, stabilize the Cedi, and boost investor confidence. The BoG noted that the initiative diversifies reserve assets, reduces global market exposure, and enhances FX liquidity while lowering reliance on external borrowing. 

• AFRICA

·        S&P Upgrades Egypt’s Rating to ‘B’; Fitch Maintains Outlook

o   S&P Global raised Egypt’s sovereign credit rating to ‘B’, citing sustained reform momentum and a sharp recovery in GDP growth. The move marks S&P’s first upgrade since Egypt began receiving international financial support in March 2024. Meanwhile, Fitch affirmed its ‘B’ rating, underscoring Egypt’s robust growth prospects and strong backing from global and Gulf partners. Both agencies kept a ‘stable’ outlook, while Moody’s maintained its ‘Caa1’ rating with a positive outlook.

·        Kenya Delivers 8th Consecutive Rate Cut

o   The Central Bank of Kenya lowered its policy rate by 25 bps to 9.25% in October 2025, marking the eighth straight cut since April 2024. Governor Kamau Thugge said the move supports credit expansion and economic growth, with GDP projected to rise by 5.2% in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026. The decision reflects stable inflation expectations, a stronger shilling, and improved foreign inflows from Kenya’s recent $1.5bn eurobond.

·        Kenya to Resume IMF Talks for New Loan Programme

o   Kenya will resume negotiations with the IMF next week in Washington to secure a new loan programme, according to Central Bank Governor Kamau Thugge. The talks follow the expiry of the country’s $3.6 billion IMF programme earlier this year, with authorities seeking a renewed deal that includes a funded component. Thugge expressed optimism about reaching an agreement soon, underscoring the programme’s role in maintaining macroeconomic stability.

·        Nigeria Plans $2.3 Billion Eurobond Issuance

o   Nigeria plans to raise $2.3 billion from the Eurobond market before year-end to help finance its 2025 budget and refinance a $1.1 billion bond maturing in November, according to the Debt Management Office. The government is also considering a $500 million sukuk issuance to diversify funding sources. The move underscores renewed investor confidence following recent fiscal reforms and improved macroeconomic conditions.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics