In this week’s edition: 

·                  Most Global Equity Markets Closed Lower as Investors Reassessed Elevated Technology Valuations Following Disappointing Signals from Major Tech Players 

·                  Gold Traded Near Record Highs, Rising by 2.4% for the Week on Expectations of Further US Monetary Easing 

·                  Ghana’s Treasury Auction Posts 22.57% Oversubscription with Mixed Yield Movements 

·                  Ghanaian Equities Extend Winning Streak: GSE-CI Up 0.66% w/w to 77.54% YTD as Financials Provide Support 

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Markets Update - December 15, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE    

·                  Fed Lowers Rates for 3rd Time 

o        The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.50%–3.75% in December, its third consecutive reduction and the lowest level since 2022. The committee signaled only one additional 25 bps cut in 2026, while revising GDP growth higher and lowering inflation projections slightly. Unemployment forecasts were unchanged at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026. 

·                  US Exports Climb to Second-Highest on Record   

o        US exports of goods and services increased 3% to $289.3bn in September 2025, marking the second-highest level on record. The rise was driven mainly by goods exports, which grew on the back of higher shipments of nonmonetary gold and pharmaceuticals, despite a decline in computer exports. Services exports edged lower, as weakness in travel and transport services offset modest gains in financial services. 

·                  UK Economy Contracts Again in October 

o        The UK economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% m/m in October 2025, matching September’s decline and missing forecasts for modest growth, marking a fourth straight month of stagnation. The downturn was driven by a 0.3% fall in services, led by sharp drops in wholesale and retail trade and IT-related activities, alongside a 0.6% contraction in construction, weighed down by private housing. In contrast, production rebounded 1.1%, supported by manufacturing—particularly motor vehicles, mining, and utilities. Over the three months to October, GDP also fell 0.1%, underscoring persistent growth headwinds. 

·                  Eurozone Industrial Output Hits 5-Month High 

o        Eurozone industrial production rose 0.8% m/m in October 2025, the strongest gain since May, supported by broad-based growth across sectors. Durable consumer goods led the increase, alongside solid gains in non-durables, energy, capital goods, and intermediate goods. Among major economies, Germany, Ireland, Spain, the Netherlands, and France recorded higher output, while Italy, Belgium, and Sweden saw declines. On a yearly basis, production expanded 2.0% y/y, a five-month high, signaling improving industrial momentum across the bloc. 

·                  China Inflation Climbs to 21-Month High 

o        China’s annual inflation rose to 0.7% in November 2025, up from 0.2% in October and in line with expectations, marking the highest level since February 2024. The pickup was driven by food prices, which rose for the first time in ten months as declines in pork prices eased and fresh produce rebounded. Non-food inflation remained firm, supported by consumer trade-in programs, with steady gains in clothing, healthcare, and education. Core inflation held at 1.2% y/y, its strongest pace in 20 months. On a monthly basis, however, consumer prices slipped 0.1%, the first decline in five months, reflecting lingering demand softness.

GHANA  

·                  Ghana GDP Growth Eases in Q3 

o        Ghana’s economy grew 5.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025, slowing from a revised 6.5% in Q2 and marking the weakest expansion since Q3 2024. The moderation was driven by a sharp slowdown in industry, which expanded just 0.8% (from 2.3%), and softer growth in services at 7.6% (down from 9.6%), though services remained resilient. Agriculture strengthened, accelerating to 8.6% from 7.1%, largely supported by the fishing sector. On a seasonally adjusted basis, quarterly GDP rose 1.3%, slightly below the 1.4% recorded in the previous quarter.  

AFRICA  

·                  Egypt November Inflation Slows to 12.3%, Below Forecasts 

o        Egypt’s annual urban inflation eased to 12.3% in November 2025, down from October’s 12.5% and below the 13.1% forecast. The slowdown was mainly due to softer food price increases (0.7% vs 1.5%), the lowest since April 2021, and moderation in clothing (14.9% vs 15.7%) and communications (11.7% vs 11.9%). However, housing (27.9%) and transport (28.9%) costs rose faster, driven by fuel price hikes and new rental laws, while restaurants, hotels, and miscellaneous goods also accelerated. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose just 0.3%, the softest increase in four months. 

·                  Kenya Cuts Key Policy Rate to 9% for 9th Consecutive Meeting 

o        The Central Bank of Kenya reduced its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 9% in December 2025, marking the ninth consecutive cut. Governor Kamau Thugge said the move aims to boost lending, support economic activity, and maintain stable inflation expectations and exchange rates. Kenya’s annual inflation eased to 4.5% in November, below the 5% midpoint of the central bank’s target band for over a year, supported by lower processed food prices, stable energy costs, and exchange rate stability. 

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        Major Global Equity Indices Closed in the Green, Supported by Investor Expectations of an 80%–85% Probability of a Near-Term Fed Rate Cut

·        Gold Prices Rose by 4.29% as Markets Increased Bets on a Potential December Fed Rate Cut

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Records 102.04% Oversubscription with Mixed Yield Movements Across the Curve

·        Ghanaian Equities Extend Winning Streak: GSE-CI Up by 1.05% w/w to 76.13% YTD as Financials Lead Rally

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - December 1, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        US Core PPI Rises Less Than Expected in September

o   US core producer prices, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.1% month-on-month in September 2025, following a 0.1% decline in August and below the 0.2% forecast. Final demand service prices were flat, while goods prices increased by 0.9% after a revised 0.2% rise in August. On an annual basis, core PPI climbed by 2.6%, the slowest since July 2024 and slightly below the 2.7% estimate, reflecting moderating underlying inflation pressures.

·        Euro Area Manufacturing Slows Amid Weak Demand 

o   The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for November 2025 was revised down to 49.6, the lowest in five months, reflecting weakened demand. Factory job losses accelerated, and inventories declined faster, though production continued to rise at a slower pace. Business confidence improved, with expectations above the long-term average. Input costs saw the sharpest increase since March, yet output prices fell slightly, highlighting limited pricing power for Eurozone manufacturers despite ongoing production growth.

·        UK Manufacturing Returns to Growth After Over a Year 

o   The UK Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in November 2025, its first expansion since September 2024. Output increased for a second month, driven by stronger domestic demand and a milder fall in export orders, while new orders stabilised after a long contraction. Large firms and investment goods led the improvement. Employment fell amid cost-cutting and budget uncertainty. Input inflation eased, output prices declined, and business optimism hit a nine-month high.

·        China Manufacturing Activity Slips to 4-Month Low

o   China’s General Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9 in November 2025, a four-month low and below expectations. Output and new orders were broadly flat, with firms cutting jobs and keeping purchases subdued. Foreign demand, however, rose at the fastest pace in eight months. Improved supplier communication shortened lead times. Input costs increased on higher metal prices, though inflation softened, while output prices fell amid competition. Business confidence strengthened on supportive policies and expansion plans.

·        Canada’s Economy Rebounds in Q3 on Trade and Public Investment

o   Canada’s GDP grew 0.6% q/q in Q3 2025, reversing the prior quarter’s contraction. The rebound was driven by a stronger trade balance as imports fell and exports inched higher. Government-led capital spending surged—particularly an 82% jump in weapon system expenditures and notable investment in institutional buildings. Business investment was flat, while household consumption and government spending declined. Annualized growth hit 2.6%, far surpassing expectations.

• GHANA

·        BoG Delivers a Third Policy Rate Cut as Expected

o   The Bank of Ghana cut its policy rate by 350 bps to 18% on November 26, 2025, marking its third rate reduction this year. The decision reflects improving macroeconomic conditions and a sustained decline in inflation, which fell to 8% in October, its lowest level in over four years. Governor Johnson Asiama noted inflation could reach 4%–6% by year-end, with growth expected to remain solid through 2025.

• AFRICA

·        Egypt GDP Growth Hits Over 3-Year High of 5.3%

o   Egypt’s economy expanded by 5.3% in Q1 FY 2025/26, its strongest growth in more than three years and up from 3.5% a year earlier. The rebound was fueled by robust non-oil manufacturing, tourism, ICT, and financial services. Suez Canal activity also posted an 8.6% rise. However, the extraction sector contracted by 5.3% due to lower petroleum and natural gas output, partially offsetting the broader economic gains.

·        South Africa PPI Inflation Rises for Fifth Consecutive Month

o   South Africa’s producer price index (PPI) inflation increased for the fifth month, reaching 2.9% in October 2025, up from 2.3% in September, though slightly below the 3.1% forecast. Key drivers included food, beverages, and tobacco (+0.9 pp), coke and petroleum products (+0.5 pp), and furniture/manufacturing (+0.5 pp). On a monthly basis, producer prices declined 0.1% in October, continuing the modest downward trend seen in the prior month.

            Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        U.S. Stocks Closed Last Week Slightly Higher as PCE Inflation Print Lighter

·        Gold Prices Dropped by 0.98% as U.S. Economic Data Strengthened Expectations for a Near-Term Fed Rate Cut

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Posts 19.82% Oversubscription with Mixed Yield Movements

·        Ghanaian Equities Stay in the Green: GSE-CI Climbs 0.15% w/w to 76.39% YTD Despite Mixed Sentiment

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - December 8, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        US PCE Inflation Edges Higher in September

o   The US PCE price index rose 0.3% in September 2025, matching August’s pace and expectations. Goods prices jumped 0.5%, while services inflation slowed to 0.2%. Core PCE increased 0.2%, unchanged from August. Food prices rose 0.4% and energy costs surged 1.7%. Annually, headline PCE accelerated to 2.8%, the highest since April 2024, while core PCE eased slightly to 2.8%. The report, delayed by the government shutdown, reinforced the Fed’s cautious inflation outlook.

·        US Private Employers Cut Jobs for First Time in Over a Year 

o   US private-sector payrolls fell by 32,000 in November, the largest decline since March 2023 and well below expectations for a gain. The drop was driven by a steep 120,000 loss at small firms, while medium and large companies added jobs. Manufacturing, professional services, information, construction, and finance all posted declines, partly offset by gains in health, leisure, mining, and trade. Wage growth continued to cool, with pay rising by 4.4% for job-stayers.

·        Eurozone Annual Growth Confirmed at 1.4% 

o   Eurozone GDP grew by 1.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, easing from 1.6% in the first half but aligning with earlier estimates. Household spending and investment slowed, while government expenditure and trade volumes strengthened. Among major economies, Spain remained the fastest growing, followed by the Netherlands and France, with Italy accelerating slightly and Germany steady at 0.3%. On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded by 0.3%, an upward revision from the initial 0.2% estimate.

·        India Cuts Policy Rate and Lifts Growth Outlook

o   The Reserve Bank of India cut its repo rate by 25 bps to 5.25% in December 2025, marking 125 bps of easing year-to-date and the lowest rate since mid-2022. To support liquidity, the RBI announced INR 1 trillion in bond purchases and USD 5 billion in forex swaps. It also upgraded FY2025/26 GDP growth to 7.3% and lowered its inflation forecast to 2.0%, keeping price pressures well within target.

• GHANA

·        Inflation Continues Its Steady Decline

o   Ghana’s annual inflation continued its downward trajectory, falling for the 11th consecutive month to 6.3% in November 2025 from 8% in October, aided by a stronger cedi supported by rising cocoa and gold prices. Food inflation eased to 6.6% from 9.5%, while non-food inflation slowed to 6.1% from 6.9%. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose by 0.9% in November after a 0.4% decline in October. 

• AFRICA

·        Nigeria GDP Growth Slows but Remains Resilient

o   Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.98% year-on-year in Q3 2025, easing from 4.23% in Q2 but maintaining a solid pace. The non-oil sector, accounting for 96.6% of GDP, expanded by 3.91%, supported by agriculture, finance and insurance, construction, trade, and real estate. The oil sector grew by 5.84%, sharply down from 20.46% previously. Average daily crude production reached 1.64 million barrels, slightly below Q2 levels but above the same period in 2024.

·        South Africa’s Forex Reserves Hit Record High in November

o   South Africa’s gross foreign exchange reserves rose to a historic high of $72.07 billion in November 2025, up from $71.55 billion in October. The increase was driven mainly by higher gold reserves, which climbed to $16.84 billion, and marginally higher SDR holdings. Foreign currency reserves, however, dipped to $48.73 billion, while the central bank’s forward position declined to $0.55 billion, reflecting reduced unsettled swap transactions.

 Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        U.S. equities Closed Lower Last Week as Investors Recalibrated Ahead of Delayed Macroeconomic Releases

·        Gold Prices Slip by 0.46% Amid Mixed US Economic Data and Dovish Fed Signals

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed by 24.62% as Yields Saw Mixed Move Across the Curve

·        Ghanaian Equities Market Extended Its Positive Momentum Last Week, GSE-CI Up by 1.2% w/w to 74.31% YTD

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - November 24, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        Eurozone Inflation Steady at 2.1% in October

o   Eurozone inflation held at 2.1% in October, staying close to the ECB’s 2% target. Food and industrial goods inflation eased, while energy prices fell further. However, services inflation rose to 3.4%, signaling persistent underlying pressures. Core inflation was unchanged at 2.4%. Among major economies, price growth slowed in Germany, France, and Italy but ticked up in Spain.

·        US Consumer Sentiment Remains Near Record Low in November 

o   US consumer sentiment edged down to 51.0 in November from 53.6 in October, remaining near historic lows amid persistent price pressures and weakening incomes. Current conditions plunged to a record low, driven by sharp declines in personal finance assessments and durable-goods buying conditions. Expectations improved only slightly. Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.5%, while long-term expectations fell to 3.4%, signaling modestly softer inflation outlooks despite subdued sentiment.

·        US Manufacturing PMI Slips to 4-Month Low in November 

o   The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.9 in November 2025 from 52.5 in October, hitting a four-month low but still signaling expansion. Production growth eased slightly, while new order growth softened from October’s strong pace. Employment rose at the fastest rate since August, and longer supplier lead times provided a modest boost to the headline reading. Input inventories were little changed, pointing to stable supply-chain dynamics.

·        Euro Area Manufacturing PMI Falls to 5-Month Low

o   The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.7 in November, a five-month low, down from 50 in October and below forecasts. New orders and employment continued to decline, while output rose only slightly. Input costs increased for the first time in three months, though selling prices were unchanged. Business confidence improved, but economists note that deeper inventory cuts signal the sector is still months—possibly quarters—away from a sustained recovery.

·        China FDI Decline Eases but Remains in Contraction

o   Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into China fell 10.3% y/y to CNY 621.93 billion in the year to October 2025, marking the 30th consecutive month of contraction but the mildest drop since late 2023. Manufacturing attracted CNY 161.91 billion, services CNY 445.82 billion, and technology industries CNY 192.52 billion. The UAE accounted for nearly half of all inflows, with the UK and Switzerland also contributing meaningful investments.

• GHANA

·        BoG MPC Convenes Amid Market Expectation of Another Rate Cut

o   The Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) begins its 127th meeting today, November 24, 2025, to review macroeconomic developments and signal policy direction in what is expected to be the committee’s last meeting for 2025. The Ghana Cedi has been relatively stable, though slight depreciation is emerging ahead of the holiday season. Consumer inflation fell to 8% in October, below the 11.9% year-end target, while economic growth for the first half of the year averaged 6.3%, fueling expectations of possible monetary easing.

·        US Lifts 15% Tariff on Ghanaian Cocoa

o   The United States has formally removed the 15% tariff on Ghana’s cocoa and select agricultural exports, effective November 13, 2025, according to Foreign Affairs Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa. The move, following an Executive Order by US President Donald Trump, provides relief to Ghanaian farmers and exporters and is projected to generate around US$60 million in additional revenue. Ghana’s cocoa and other crops are now exempt from the US reciprocal tariff policy. 

• AFRICA

·        South Africa Cuts Benchmark Rate Amid Favorable Outlook

o   On November 20, 2025, the South African Reserve Bank lowered its key repo rate by 25 bps to 6.75%, following a unanimous decision. The move reflects a more favorable inflation outlook, despite October’s inflation rising slightly to 3.6%. SARB revised 2025–2026 inflation forecasts marginally lower and lifted 2025 growth to 1.3%. Officials indicated that gradual rate cuts could continue as inflation trends toward the 3% medium-term target, supporting balanced economic growth.

·        Nigeria Inflation Falls to 3½-Year Low

o   Nigeria’s annual inflation eased to 16.05% in October 2025, the lowest since March 2022, down from 18.02% in September, marking the seventh consecutive month of slowing price growth. Food inflation fell sharply to 13.12%, aided by the harvest and a stronger naira, while core inflation eased to 18.7%, the lowest since February 2023. Monthly CPI rose 0.9% in October, slightly higher than September’s 0.7% increase.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics