In this week's edition:

·        US Equities Extend Gains as Nonfarm Payrolls Beat Estimates

·        Gold Rises 1.29% Amid U.S. Fiscal Deficit Concerns and Lingering Tariff Uncertainty

·        Ghana’s Treasury Accepts All Bids but Records 11.57% Undersubscription, Sixth Straight Week of Shortfall

·        The Ghana Stock Exchange Rally Continues, Led by Financials and TOTAL; GSE-CI Climbs to 29.84% YTD, GSE-FSI Soars to 43.03% YTD. 

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - July 7, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        US Nonfarm Payrolls Beat Forecasts in June

o   US nonfarm payrolls rose by 147K in June 2025, surpassing forecasts of 110K and matching the 12-month average. Government hiring led gains (+73K), mostly in state and local education. Health care added 39K jobs, while social assistance rose 19K. However, federal employment declined (-7K). Despite current resilience, hiring may slow amid trade and immigration uncertainty. The stronger-than-expected job growth could reduce the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the near term.

·        Trump’s Tariffs Set to Take Effect August 1

o   US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that new tariffs will begin on August 1, as President Trump finalizes trade deals and sets rates. Trump noted that some agreements are already in place, while official notices will be sent to other nations. If no deal is reached, tariffs could revert to April 2 levels, ending a 90-day reprieve.

·        Eurozone Inflation Hits ECB Target in June

o   Eurozone inflation rose to 2.0% in June 2025, up slightly from 1.9% in May, matching the ECB’s target. Services inflation quickened to 3.3%, while energy price declines eased. Inflation for food and industrial goods moderated. Core inflation stayed at 2.3%, its lowest since January 2022. Germany’s inflation slowed, while France and Spain posted slight increases.

·        Eurozone Unemployment Ticks Up from Record Low

o   The Euro Area unemployment rate edged up to 6.3% in May 2025 from April’s record low of 6.2%, slightly above expectations. The number of unemployed rose by 54,000 to 10.83 million. Youth unemployment held at 14.4%. Germany and the Netherlands posted the lowest rates, while Spain, France, and Italy reported higher figures.

·        China Composite PMI Rebounds to 3-Month High

o   China’s Caixin Composite PMI rose to 51.3 in June 2025 from 49.6 in May, the strongest since March. A pickup in manufacturing offset slowing services growth. While new business rebounded, exports remained weak and job cuts continued. Firms reduced selling prices sharply, the biggest drop in over two years, to spur demand, even as input costs slightly declined.

•  GHANA

·        Ghana Inflation Falls to 13.7% in June, Lowest Since 2021

o   Ghana’s annual inflation rate dropped to 13.7% in June 2025, its lowest in three and half years, driven by continued Cedi appreciation. Food inflation slowed sharply to 16.3% from 22.8% in May, while non-food inflation eased to 11.4% from 14.4%. This marks the sixth consecutive month of disinflation, reinforcing expectations of further price stability. The sustained downward trend in inflation strengthens the case for a potential policy rate cut at the Bank of Ghana’s next MPC meeting.

·        Ghana Pays US$1.17bn in Eurobond Coupons, Fully Meets 2025 Obligations

o   Ghana has completed all Eurobond coupon payments for 2025, disbursing US$1.17 billion since the October 2024 debt restructuring deal. The latest US$349.52 million payment on July 3 confirms the country’s commitment to prudent debt management. Officials expect this discipline to boost investor confidence and credit ratings, ahead of higher external obligations in 2026. 

• AFRICA

·        Kenya GDP Grows 4.9% in Q1 2025 on Strong Agricultural Output

o   Kenya’s economy expanded by 4.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, following a 5.1% increase in Q4 2024. Growth was driven by a 6% rise in agriculture, supported by favorable rains and government subsidies. Key sectors like ICT, trade, real estate, and finance also posted solid gains. Seasonally adjusted quarterly growth slowed to 0.8%, the weakest in a year.

·        South Africa’s Forex Reserves Hit Record $68.4bn in June

o   South Africa’s gross foreign exchange reserves rose to a record $68.42 billion in June 2025, up from $68.12 billion in May. The increase was driven by higher SDR holdings and foreign currency reserves, despite a slight dip in gold reserves. The central bank’s forward position also edged up to $0.532 billion, reflecting stronger external buffers.

·        South Africa, Nigeria Propel Intra-Africa Trade to $220.3bn in 2024

o   Intra-Africa trade rose by 12.4% to $220.3 billion in 2024, rebounding from a 5.9% decline in 2023, per Afreximbank's African Trade Report. South Africa led with $42.14 billion, while Nigeria’s trade surged to $18.43 billion, driven by refined oil and manufactured goods exports. The Dangote Refinery played a key role in Nigeria’s export momentum.

        Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        Global Equity Markets Rebound Sharply on Optimism Over Trade Agreement and Easing Uncertainty.

·        Gold Prices Drop 2.79% as Reduced Market Uncertainty Weakens Safe-Haven Demand.

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed by 13.39%, Marking Fifth Consecutive Week of Shortfall.

·        Financial Stocks Drive GSE-FSI Above 40%, Extending YTD Outperformance to 41.80% Over Broader Market.

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - June 30, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        US PCE Prices Rise Slightly in May; Core Inflation Picks Up

o   US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices rose by 0.1% in May 2025, matching April's increase and in line with expectations. Goods and services prices rose by 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Core PCE inflation accelerated to 0.2%, topping forecasts. Annually, headline inflation edged up to 2.3% and core to 2.7%. The data may influence Fed policy as inflation shows signs of renewed momentum.

·        US Economy Shrinks More Than Expected in Q1 2025

o   The US economy contracted at a 0.5% annualized rate in Q1 2025, steeper than the previous 0.2% estimate and marking the first decline in three years. Consumer spending and exports were sharply downgraded, while a spike in imports ahead of tariffs added to the drag. Government spending fell, though fixed investment provided some support with a 7.6% gain.

·        China Factory Contraction Eases in June

o   China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 in June 2025 from 49.5 in May, marking a third straight contraction but the mildest in the current sequence. Output and new orders increased, supported by US trade relief and domestic stimulus. Foreign sales and buying declined more slowly, while employment fell faster. Input and selling prices dropped at a slower pace. Business sentiment dipped.

·        UK GDP Growth Holds Steady at 1.3% in Q1 2025

o   The UK economy expanded by 1.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, in line with earlier estimates but slightly down from 1.5% in Q4. Services and construction sectors supported output, while production stagnated. On the expenditure side, household spending rose by 0.9% and business investment surged by 6.1%. However, net trade dragged, as imports jumped by 7.5% and exports fell by 0.5%.

·        Eurozone Economic Sentiment Dips in June

o   The Euro Area economic sentiment index fell to 94 in June 2025 from 94.8, missing forecasts for a rise to 95.1. Confidence declined in industry, retail, and among consumers, though services and construction saw modest gains. France, Spain, and Germany posted notable declines, while sentiment improved in Poland and was stable in Italy and the Netherlands.

•  GHANA

·        World Bank Approves $360m for Ghana to Bolster Economic Stability

o   The World Bank has approved $360 million in support of Ghana’s efforts to restore macroeconomic stability and promote job creation. The funding, under the Second Resilient Recovery Development Policy Financing operation, aims to boost fiscal sustainability, financial sector stability, private sector development, and energy sector discipline. Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson welcomed the intervention.

·        BoG to Roll Out Digital Finance Rules to Boost SME Access and Innovation

o   The Bank of Ghana is set to introduce regulatory frameworks for open banking, digital credit, and digital banking by year-end to expand financial access for SMEs. Deputy Governor Dr. Zakari Mumuni said the move aims to enhance financial inclusion and innovation, leveraging technologies like blockchain and AI, while ensuring a safe and competitive digital finance space.

• AFRICA

·        Egypt’s GDP Growth Hits 3-Year High at 4.77% in Q3 FY2024/25

o   Egypt’s economy expanded by 4.77% in Q3 of FY2024/25, the highest in three years, up from 2.2% a year earlier, according to preliminary data. Manufacturing led the rebound with 16.3% growth, while oil and gas extraction contracted by 10.38%. Activity through the Suez Canal also declined, falling by 23.1% year-on-year.

·        South African Consumer Confidence Rebounds in Q2

o   South Africa’s consumer confidence index rose to -10 in Q2 2025 from -20 in Q1, according to FirstRand’s FNB. The rebound was supported by early pension withdrawals under the two-pot system, lower fuel prices, falling interest rates, and cheaper vehicles. Despite the improvement, sentiment remains well below average, with spending growth expected to slow into 2026.

·        Nigeria’s Public Debt Rises to N149.39 Trillion in Q1 2025

o   Nigeria’s total public debt climbed to N149.39 trillion as of March 31, 2025, reflecting a 3.3% increase from N144.67 trillion in the previous quarter, according to the DMO. The Federal Government accounts for N74.89 trillion, with states and the FCT owing N3.87 trillion. Domestic debt rose to N78.76 trillion, while naira depreciation pushed external debt higher.

                  Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        U.S. Stocks React Adversely to Escalating Conflict in the Middle East.

·        Gold Prices Decline as Investors Anticipate a Stronger Dollar.

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Records Undersubscription for the 4th Consecutive Week.

·        The GSE Financial Stock Index continued its positive momentum, posting a gain of 1.09% w/w and lifting its YTD return to 39.59%

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - June 23, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·       US Fed Keeps Rates Steady

·    The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% for the fourth consecutive time at the end of its June 2025 meeting, aligning with expectations. Policymakers are taking a cautious approach to thoroughly assess the economic impact of President Trump's policies, especially those concerning tariffs, immigration, and taxation. Officials also mentioned that while uncertainty about the economic outlook has lessened, it remains high. Nevertheless, the Fed still forecasts two rate cuts later this year, with only one quarter-percentage-point cut anticipated in 2026 and 2027.

·        BoE Signals Cautious Approach Amid Persistent Inflation

·    The Bank of England voted 6-3 to keep the Bank Rate steady at 4.25% at its June meeting, navigating a challenging backdrop of heightened global uncertainty and persistent inflationary pressure. The central bank noted that consumer price inflation is likely to remain broadly at current rates for the rest of the year before easing back toward the target next year. However, it warned of “two-sided risks to inflation,” expressing concern over rising energy prices amid the escalating Middle East conflict and potential trade disruptions from proposed US tariffs. It also noted that underlying UK GDP growth "appears to have remained weak,” while the labor market has “continued to loosen.”

·        Eurozone Inflation at 8-Month Low

·    Eurozone consumer price inflation was confirmed at 1.9% year-on-year in May 2025, down from 2.2% in April, marking the first time it has fallen below the European Central Bank's 2.0% target since September 2024. This slowdown was primarily due to a significant drop in services inflation, which decreased to 3.2% from 4.0% in April, reaching its lowest level since March 2022. Energy prices continued their decline, falling by 3.6% year-on-year, while inflation for non-energy industrial goods remained steady at 0.6%.

·        Eurozone Business Activity Grows Slightly

·     The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI remained unchanged from the previous month at 50.2 in June of 2025, slightly under market expectations of 50.5, according to a flash estimate. The result reflected the sixth consecutive month above the expansionary threshold, yet continued to indicate a muted pace of growth.

·        FDI in China Slips 13.2% Despite Surge in High-Tech Sectors

·     Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China fell by 13.2% year-on-year to CNY 358.19 billion (USD 49.88 billion) from January to May 2025. The manufacturing sector attracted CNY 91.52 billion, while the services sector received CNY 259.64 billion. High-tech industries saw significant investment, particularly in e-commerce services (146%), aerospace and equipment manufacturing (74.9%), chemical and pharmaceutical manufacturing (59.2%), and medical equipment and device manufacturing (20%). Regionally, FDI from ASEAN countries increased by 20.5%, with notable rises from Japan (70.2%), the United Kingdom (60.9%), South Korea (10.3%), and Germany (7.1%).

GHANA

·        Bank of Ghana to Push for 10% lending rate

·        The Bank of Ghana plans to overhaul the Ghana Reference Rate to help reduce lending rates to 10% over the next four years. Governor Dr. Johnson Pandit Asiama highlighted that high credit costs hinder private sector growth. The central bank's reforms aim to facilitate expansion without making finance inaccessible to businesses. They believe that a recalibrated reference rate, along with better regulatory oversight and market discipline, will lower borrowing costs and enhance long-term economic resilience.

AFRICA

·        Nigeria Inflation Softens for 2nd Month

·     Nigeria’s annual inflation rate eased for the second month to 22.97% in May 2025, from 23.71% in the prior month. This slowdown is largely a technical adjustment, supported by favourable base effects and a slight strengthening of the naira, which has helped cap the import costs. Food inflation, the largest component of the inflation basket, remained elevated but continued to decelerate to 21.14% in May from 21.26% in April.

·        South Africa Inflation Holds Steady at 2.8% in May

·    South Africa’s annual inflation rate held steady at 2.8% in May 2025, matching April’s five-year low. Faster price increases for food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.8% vs. 4.0% in April), housing and utilities (4.5% vs. 4.4%), and clothing and footwear (1.3% vs. 1.2%) were offset by slower inflation in alcoholic beverages and tobacco (4.3% vs. 4.7%), restaurants and accommodation services (1.8% vs. 3.0%), and personal care and miscellaneous services (1.7% vs. 1.6%).

·        Senegal Industrial Output Growth Accelerates in April

·     Senegal’s industrial production, excluding cotton ginning, surged by 24.9% year-on-year in April 2025, accelerating from a 19.7% increase in the previous month. This marked the strongest growth in three months, largely driven by a sharp rise in output from extractive industries (+82.7%) and, to a lesser extent, manufacturing industries (+4.1%). Within manufacturing, production saw significant increases in refined petroleum and coking products (+260.5%), paper, cardboard, printing, and reproduction of records (+140.5%), as well as chemical, pharmaceutical, rubber, and plastic products (+132.5%).

           Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        U.S. Stocks Declined Week-on-Week Amid Flight to Safe-haven Assets.

·        Gold Prices Advanced to a New Record High as Investors Seek Safety Due to Escalating Conflict Between Iran and Israel.

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Records 5% Undersubscription; Yields Decline Across all Tenors.

·        GSE Records Gains After Three-week Losing Streak as Heavily Weighted MTNGH Witnessed Price Uptick. 

• Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - June 16, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        US Core PPI Rises Less than Anticipated

o   Core producer prices in the United States, which exclude food and energy, rose by 0.1% over a month in May of 2025, after a revised 0.2% fall in the prior month and below market estimates of a 0.3% increase. From the previous year, core producer prices rose 3% in May, the least since August 2024, slowing from an upwardly revised 3.2% increase in April and below the expected 3.1% advance.

·        Trump Warns of Higher Auto Tariffs to Spur U.S. Investment

o   President Donald Trump last Thursday signaled a possible hike in auto tariffs, saying it could push foreign automakers to invest more in the U.S. Automakers, including the Detroit Three, have urged the White House to ease the current 25% tariffs, especially after a deal cutting tariffs on British car imports excluded Canada and Mexico, but Trump pointed to recent investment pledges, such as GM’s $4 billion plan to upgrade three U.S. plants and shift SUV production from Mexico, and Hyundai’s $21 billion U.S. investment, including a steel plant as reasons why more tariffs are needed.

·        US Budget Deficit Shrinks on Surge in Tariff Revenues

o   The US government recorded a $316 billion budget deficit in May, down 9% from a year earlier, driven in part by a surge in customs receipts to a record $23 billion due to new tariffs imposed by President Trump. Gross customs receipts jumped from $6 billion in May 2024, as the tariffs on imports from most trading partners increased port-of-entry collections. Year-to-date customs revenue rose nearly 60% to $86 billion.

·        US Consumer Sentiment Rebounds in June

o   Preliminary estimates show that the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for the U.S. rose to 60.5 in June 2025, up from a near-record low of 52.2 in both May and April, and significantly exceeding market expectations of 53.5. This marks the first increase in sentiment in six months, driven by broad improvements in both current conditions and future expectations.

·         UK GDP Contracts More than Expected

o   The British economy shrank by 0.3% month-over-month in April 2025, marking its first contraction in six months and the steepest decline since October 2023. This followed a 0.2% growth in March and was worse than the expected 0.1% drop. The downturn was driven by several factors, including higher energy and regulated service costs, increased employers’ National Insurance contributions, a rise in Stamp Duty Land Tax rates, and major tariff announcements from President Trump. The services sector, which played the biggest role in the GDP decline, saw output fall by 0.4%.

·        China to Eliminate Tariffs for African Nations in New Trade Pact

o   China is set to sign a new economic agreement with 53 African nations it maintains diplomatic relations with, aiming to eliminate all tariffs and expand market access beyond just least developed countries (LDCs) to include middle-income nations as well. Although Beijing already provides duty- and quota-free access to many African LDCs, the new pact seeks to create a more level playing field. To help LDCs like Tanzania and Mali compete with more developed countries such as South Africa, China has also committed to providing additional support, including training and marketing assistance.

• GHANA

·        Ghana’s Economy Gains Traction in Q1

o   Ghana’s economy grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, up from 3.6% in the previous quarter. Growth in the industrial sector strengthened to 3.4%, compared with just 0.2% earlier, largely driven by a 5.6% surge in gold production. The agricultural sector—employing around 40% of the workforce—also saw faster growth at 6.6%, up from 2.9% in Q4 2024, boosted by a recovery in cocoa output after six consecutive quarters of decline. Meanwhile, the services sector continued to expand, rising by 5.9%, slightly below the 6.3% increase in the prior quarter.

·        Cedi’s appreciation could lead to revision of programme targets – IMF

o   The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revealed that the cedi’s sharp appreciation against the US dollar in the first half of 2025 could lead to a revision of some of the fund’s programme targets with Ghana. The IMF noted that future programme reviews will provide an opportunity for the team to carefully assess all of the evolving macroeconomic and financial conditions.

• AFRICA

·        Angola Inflation Rate Slows to 2023-Lows

o   The annual inflation rate in Angola continued to decelerate to reach 20.74% in May 2025, the lowest since December 2023, easing from 22.32% in the prior month. The stabilization of the kwanza has helped contain imported inflation, while elevated interest rates and improved availability of consumer goods have supported a sustained disinflationary trend since July 2024.

·        Kenya Cuts Rates for Sixth Straight Meeting

o   The Central Bank of Kenya lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 9.75% in June 2025, marking a sixth consecutive cut. The Monetary Policy Committee noted that inflation eased to 3.8% in May from 4.1% in April, staying below the 5±2.5% target midpoint. The decision aimed to support lending and economic activity, with the bank citing room for further monetary easing.

                  Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics