In this week's edition:

•    U.S. Equities Extended Gains, As Technology Stocks and Optimism Over the U.S.-Iran Agreement Offset Concerns About a Hawkish Federal Reserve.
•    Gold Prices Fell 1.51% W/W, As Hawkish Fed Signals Outweighed Support from the U.S.-Iran Peace Agreement.
•    Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed (20.24%) Amid a Sharp Rise in Yields Across the Curve.
•    GSE Extends Winning Streak to Three Weeks; GSE-CI Rises 2.27% w/w to 68.40% YTD, While GSE FI Rose 2.03% W/W to 80.65% YTD.

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - June 22, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

•    Fed Holds Rates Steady, Signals Higher Inflation Outlook

The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17, 2026, marking a fourth consecutive hold and aligning with market expectations, in the first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Updated projections revealed a divided policy outlook, with 9 officials expecting at least one rate hike, 6 seeing at least two, while another 9 anticipate no change or potential cuts, alongside a slight downgrade in 2026 GDP growth (2.2% vs 2.4% in March). At the same time, PCE inflation forecasts were revised sharply higher to 3.6% for 2026 (from 2.7%) and 3.3% for 2027 (from 2.7%), underscoring persistent price pressures despite solid economic activity and labour market resilience.

•    BoE Holds Rates Steady Amid Persistent Uncertainty

The Bank of England held its Bank Rate at 3.75% on June 18, 2026, with a 7–2 vote split, as policymakers balanced easing inflation against ongoing energy related uncertainty tied to Middle East tensions. While CPI inflation has moderated to 2.8%, two members voted for a 25bps hike to 4.0%, citing risks of renewed inflation pressures. The Bank noted that although energy prices have eased from recent highs, they remain elevated, with potential second round effects on wages and prices posing risks if pressures persist.

•    US Import Prices Rise Sharply Above Expectations

U.S. import prices increased by 1.9% m/m in May 2026, following an upwardly revised 2.0% gain in April, the strongest rise in four years and significantly above expectations of 1.0%. The surge was driven by a sharp jump in fuel and lubricant prices (+12.5%), reflecting higher global energy costs linked to Middle East supply disruptions, while non fuel import prices rose by 0.8%, supported by gains across capital goods, industrial supplies, and consumer goods.

•    Euro Area Inflation Confirmed at 2½ Year High

Euro area inflation was confirmed at 3.2% in May 2026, unchanged from April and the highest since September 2023, remaining well above the ECB’s 2.0% target. The increase was driven by a sharp rise in energy prices (+10.8%), alongside faster growth in services (3.5% vs 3.0% in April 2026) and non energy industrial goods (0.9% vs 0.8% in April 2026), although food, alcohol, and tobacco inflation eased to 1.9% from 2.4% m/m. Core inflation also strengthened to 2.6% from 2.2% in April, reflecting broadening price pressures.

•    China Keeps LPR Unchanged for 13th Straight Month

The People’s Bank of China held its key lending rates steady for a 13th consecutive month on June 21, 2026, with the one year LPR at 3.0% and the five year LPR at 3.5%, in line with market expectations. The decision reflects a cautious stance amid mixed economic signals, including weaker retail sales, persistent property sector weakness, and ongoing global uncertainties linked to the Middle East conflict.

•    U.K. Inflation Holds Steady Below Expectations

U.K. annual inflation remained unchanged at 2.8% in May 2026, below market expectations of 3.0% and holding at its lowest level since March 2025. The stability reflected softer price pressures in housing and household services (2.7% vs 3.0% in April 2026), alongside a further slowdown in food and non alcoholic beverages (2.2% vs 3.0% in April 2026), which dropped to their lowest level since December 2024.

 GHANA

 BoG Balance Sheet Expands as Assets Climb in March

The Bank of Ghana’s balance sheet strengthened in March 2026, with total assets rising to GH¢321.38 billion, up from GH¢310.58 billion in February, representing a 3.5% month on month increase and a 2.6% year on year gain. The expansion was driven largely by a sharp increase in foreign assets, which jumped to GH¢128.0 billion from GH¢109.48 billion, alongside a significant rise in foreign securities holdings to GH¢81.56 billion, reflecting stronger investment in external assets. Despite remaining slightly below March 2025 levels (GH¢129.73 billion), the improvement signals a recovery in the Bank’s external position, supported by continued gold accumulation and diversified reserve investments.

AFRICA

Nigeria Inflation Rises to Six Month High

Nigeria’s annual inflation accelerated to 15.93% in May 2026, up from 15.69% in April, marking a six month high and extending the recent upward trend. The increase was driven by a sharp pickup in food inflation (17.8% vs 16.6% in April 2026) and transport costs (17.1% vs 16.0% in April 2026), reflecting ongoing pass through effects from earlier fuel price shocks, while price pressures remained elevated across health, hospitality, and personal services, though easing slightly in some categories. Core inflation also climbed to 16.82% from 15.86% in April, highlighting broader underlying pressures. On a monthly basis CPI rose by 1.75%, slowing from 2.13% in April, indicating a modest moderation in momentum.

•    South Africa Inflation Accelerates but Misses Expectations
South Africa’s annual inflation rose to 4.5% in May 2026, up from 4.0% in April, marking the fastest pace since July 2024, though slightly below expectations of 4.7%. The increase was driven mainly by a sharp rise in transport costs (9.4% vs 4.9%) and housing and utilities (5.3% vs 5.2%), reflecting higher fuel prices and electricity tariffs, while pressures also picked up in restaurants and hotels (5.8% vs 5.2% in April 2026), even as food inflation eased to 1.9% from 2.9%. Core inflation edged higher to 3.8% from 3.6%. On a monthly basis CPI rose by 0.7%, slowing from a 1.1% increase in April.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        Tech-Led Selloff Sends U.S. Stocks Sharply Lower, as a Steep Decline in Semiconductor Shares Weighed on Investor Sentiment.

·        Gold Prices Fell 4.63% W/W, as a Stronger-than-Expected U.S. Jobs Report and Ongoing Middle East Tensions Fuelled Inflation and Interest Rate Concerns.

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Records 7.16% Oversubscription as Long-End Yields Rise Sharply.

·        GSE Extends Losing Streak as Selling Pressure Persists; GSE-CI Down 0.38% w/w to 63.04% YTD; Meanwhile, GSE‑FI Rose 0.74% W/W to 70.24% YTD. 

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - June 08, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

• U.S. Unemployment Holds Steady in May

o   The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.3% in May 2026, in line with expectations, while labour market conditions showed modest improvement. The number of unemployed fell by 66,000 to 7.31 million, as total employment rose by 149,000, alongside a 83,000 increase in the labour force, with the participation rate holding at 61.8%. The employment‑to‑population ratio edged up to 59.2% from 59.1%, while the broader U‑6 unemployment rate eased to 8.1% from 8.2%, indicating slightly reduced labour market slack.

• Eurozone GDP Growth Revised Sharply Lower in Q1

o   Eurozone GDP growth was revised down to 0.3% y/y in Q1 2026, from an earlier estimate of 0.8%, marking the weakest expansion since Q4 2023 amid energy and inflation pressures. The data reflected a sharp slowdown in investment (0.3% inQ1 2026 vs 3.3% in Q4 2025), a contraction in exports (-0.9% vs 2.1%), and softer consumer spending (1.1% vs 1.3%), partly offset by stronger government expenditure (2.3% vs 1.5%). At the country level, Ireland contracted sharply (-16.8% vs 2.9%), while growth slowed across major economies, although Spain remained resilient (2.7% vs 2.6%), with quarterly GDP declining by 0.2% q/q, the first contraction since 2022.

• Euro Area Private Sector Contracts for Second Straight Month

o   Euro area private‑sector activity continued to weaken in May 2026, with the S&P Global Composite PMI revised up to 48.5 from 47.5, but still below April’s headline number (48.8), marking the fastest contraction in 18 months and a second consecutive month of decline. The downturn was driven by services (47.7 in May vs 47.6 in April), while manufacturing remained in expansion (51.6 in May vs 52.2 in April), as overall demand softened, particularly from export markets, where new orders fell at the fastest pace in five months. Labour market conditions also weakened with rising job losses, while input costs remained elevated and output price inflation accelerated for a third consecutive month, although business confidence showed a modest improvement.

• China FX Reserves Rise to Highest Since 2015

o   China’s foreign exchange reserves increased by USD 31.7 billion to USD 3.442 trillion in May 2026, up from USD 3.411 trillion in April, reaching their highest level since October 2015. The gains came alongside currency movements, with the yuan appreciating by 0.95% against the US Dollar even as the Dollar strengthened by 0.85% against a basket of major currencies. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China extended its gold‑buying streak to 19 consecutive months, with holdings rising to 74.96 million ounces, although their value declined slightly to USD 340.07 billion from USD 344.17 billion. 

• GHANA
• Ghana Inflation Rises to Four‑Month High in May

o   Ghana’s annual inflation rate increased to 3.7% in May 2026, up from 3.4% in April, marking the highest level since January and extending the recent upward trend. The rise was driven mainly by a sharp pickup in food inflation (3.3% in May vs 2.2% in April), reflecting higher energy and fertilizer costs linked to the Middle East conflict, alongside climate‑related pressures on agricultural output. Meanwhile, non‑food inflation edged down to 4.1% from 4.2%, while on a monthly basis, CPI rose by 1.1%, slightly above the 1.0% increase recorded in April.

• AFRICA
• Egypt Non‑Oil Private Sector Contraction Eases

o   Egypt’s non‑oil private sector showed signs of stabilization in May 2026, with the S&P Global PMI rising to 47.1 from 46.6 in April, indicating a slower pace of contraction. Activity improved across manufacturing and construction, supported by a sharp build‑up in inventories, the fastest in nearly three years—although input cost pressures intensified to the highest level since January 2023, driven by higher fuel, electricity, and wage costs alongside currency weakness. Despite rising costs and worsening supply chain conditions, with delivery delays at a near four‑year high, firms cut employment at the fastest rate since June 2020, even as business confidence improved to its strongest level since August 2024.

• South Africa Private Sector Activity Slips to Five‑Month Low

o   South Africa’s private‑sector activity weakened in May 2026, with the S&P Global PMI falling to 49.6 from 51.6 in April, dropping below the 50.0 threshold for the first time in five months. The decline was driven by renewed contractions in output and new orders, particularly in wholesale and retail, although the services sector remained in expansion. Cost pressures intensified, with input price inflation rising to its highest level since July 2022, pushing selling prices to a 46‑month high, even as firms continued to increase hiring at the fastest pace since September 2022.

• South Africa FX Reserves Decline Further in May

o   South Africa’s gross foreign exchange reserves fell to USD 76.58 billion in May 2026, down from USD 77.09 billion in April, remaining at their lowest level since December 2025. The decline was driven mainly by a reduction in the US dollar value of gold holdings (USD 18.27 billion vs USD 18.70 billion) and lower foreign currency reserves (USD   51.66 billion vs USD51.73 billion), alongside government‑related FX outflows. Meanwhile, SDR holdings dipped slightly to USD 6.65 billion from USD 6.66 billion, and the forward position edged down to USD0.58 billion, indicating modest adjustments across reserve components.

        Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        U.S. Equities Advanced, Supported by Strong Investor Sentiment Following SpaceX’s Market Debut and Optimism Over the U.S.-Iran peace deal.

·        Gold Prices Fell 2.52% W/W, as Improving Geopolitical Sentiment Reduced Demand for Safe-Haven Assets.

·        Ghana’s Treasury Records Second Consecutive Oversubscription (11.70%) as Yields Rise at the Short and Long Ends.

·        Financial Stocks Fuel Market Rebound; GSE-CI Up 1.00% w/w to 64.67% YTD, While GSE‑FI Rose 4.00% W/W to 77.05% YTD.

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - March 15, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

• U.S. Inflation Climbs to Fresh 2023 High

o   U.S. headline inflation accelerated to 4.2% y/y in May 2026, up from 3.8% in April 2026 and in line with expectations, marking its highest level since April 2023 and the third consecutive monthly increase. The rise was driven primarily by a surge in energy prices (+23.5% vs 17.9% in April 2026), including sharp gains in gasoline (40.5% vs 28.4% in April 2026) and fuel oil (58.9% vs 54.3% in April 2026), alongside stronger inflation in shelter (3.4% vs 3.3% in April 2026) and food (3.1% vs 2.3% in April 2026). On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.5%, easing slightly from 0.6% in April, while core inflation edged up to 2.9% from 2.8%, although core monthly prices slowed to 0.2% from 0.4%, coming in below the 0.3% forecast.

• U.S. Producer Prices Accelerate While Core PPI Trails Expectations

o   U.S. producer prices rose by 1.1% m/m in May 2026, unchanged from a revised 1.1% increase in April and above forecasts of 0.7%, driven largely by a 2.8% surge in goods prices, including a sharp 23.4% jump in gasoline. In contrast, services inflation slowed to 0.3% from 0.7%, even as gains in portfolio management were partially offset by declining margins in wholesale and retail segments. On an annual basis, PPI accelerated to 6.5% from 6.4%, the highest since November 2022, while core PPI rose by 0.4% m/m and 4.9% y/y, both below expectations, indicating some easing in underlying price pressures.

• U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows as Exports Reach Record High

o   The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $55.9 billion in April 2026, from a revised $56.6 billion in March, outperforming expectations of $56.1 billion. Exports rose by 2.6% to a record $327.1 billion, driven by strong gains in capital goods (+$4.0 billion), industrial supplies (+$2.5 billion), notably crude oil and petroleum products and consumer goods (+$1.7 billion), although services exports dipped slightly. Meanwhile, imports increased by 2.0% to $383.0 billion, the highest in a year, largely due to higher capital goods imports (+$7.0 billion), alongside modest gains in services, reflecting continued strong domestic demand.

• ECB Raises Rates for First Time Since 2023

o   The European Central Bank (ECB) increased interest rates by 25 basis points in June 2026, marking its first hike since 2023, as policymakers moved to reinforce their commitment to the 2% inflation target amid rising price pressures. The decision reflects concerns over elevated energy costs and persistent inflation risks linked to the Iran conflict and disruptions to global oil supply routes. The ECB revised its inflation forecasts upward, projecting 3.0% in 2026 (from 2.6%) and 2.3% in 2027 (from 2.0%), while core inflation was also raised, even as growth projections were slightly lowered to 0.8% for 2026 and 1.2% for 2027, highlighting a more challenging economic outlook.

• UK Economy Contracts Slightly in April

o   The UK economy contracted by 0.1% m/m in April 2026, in line with expectations, reversing a 0.3% expansion in March and marking the first decline since August 2025. The downturn was driven by a 0.2% drop in services output, led by weakness in administrative activities (-2.2%), arts and recreation (-4.3%), and wholesale and retail trade (-0.4%), although information and communication rose by 1.1%. Meanwhile, production remained flat after a 0.2% decline, and construction grew modestly by 0.1%, while on an annual basis GDP expanded by 1.2%, slightly below the 1.3% forecast.

• China Inflation Holds Steady in May

o   China’s annual inflation rate remained unchanged at 1.2% y/y in May 2026, slightly below expectations of 1.3%, as rising non‑food prices offset continued food‑price weakness. Non‑food inflation edged up to 1.9% from 1.8%, driven by higher transport costs (5.4% vs 4.6% in April 2026), while food prices declined further to -1.7% from -1.6% m/m, marking a second consecutive drop. Meanwhile, core inflation eased to 1.1% from 1.2%, and on a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.1%, reversing a 0.3% increase but outperforming forecasts for a 0.2% decline. 

• GHANA
• Ghana GDP Growth Accelerates in Q1 2026

o   Ghana’s economy expanded by 6.4% y/y in Q1 2026, up from 5.8% in Q4 2025 and marking the fastest growth since Q2 2025, driven largely by stronger non‑oil sector activity. The services sector grew by 7.1%, contributing 48.3% of total growth, led by information and communication (25.2%), alongside solid gains in transport (13%) and trade (9%), while the industrial sector rose by 6.9%, supported by mining (10.7%) and oil and gas (7.0%). Meanwhile, agriculture expanded 4.0%, and on a quarterly basis, GDP increased 1.6%, reflecting improving economic momentum.

• AFRICA
• Egypt Inflation Slows to Three‑Month Low in May

o   Egypt’s annual urban inflation eased to 14.6% in May 2026, down from 14.9% in April and slightly above expectations of 14.5%, marking the lowest level since February. The moderation was driven by a sharp slowdown in transport inflation (24.7% vs 29.2% in April 2026), alongside easing pressures in health, restaurants and recreation, although housing and utility costs accelerated to 40.4% from 38.5%. Meanwhile, food inflation rose to 7.6% from 6.7% m/m, and on a monthly basis, CPI increased 1.6%, up from 1.1%, indicating persistent underlying pressures.

• Kenya Holds Policy Rate Steady for Second Consecutive Meeting

o   The Central Bank of Kenya left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.75% in June 2026, marking a second consecutive hold as policymakers aim to anchor inflation expectations and support exchange rate stability. Inflation rose for a third straight month to 6.7% in May, the highest since January 2024, driven by higher energy costs but remaining within the 5±2.5% target band. The bank expects inflation to stay within target, supported by policy measures, government interventions, stable food prices, and exchange rate stability, even as growth is projected at 4.9%, down from 5.3%, reflecting ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainties.

• South Africa GDP Growth Surpasses Expectations in Q1

o   South Africa’s economy expanded by 0.5% q/q in Q1 2026, up from 0.4% in Q4 2025 and above forecasts of 0.3%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of growth and the strongest performance since Q2 2025. The expansion was broad‑based, with nine of ten sectors growing, led by finance (0.9%), agriculture (3.9%), trade (0.7%), and transport (0.7%), although manufacturing contracted (-0.8%). Growth was supported by net exports (+0.9pp) as imports declined, while household consumption (0.1%) and government spending (0.6%) provided modest support, even as investment fell (-1.1%). On an annual basis, GDP rose by 1.9%, accelerating from 0.8% and slightly exceeding expectations of 1.8%.

 Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week’s edition:

·        U.S. Stocks Closed at Record Highs, As Investors Assessed the Sustainability of the AI Rally Alongside Middle East Oil Supply Risks and Inflation Implications.

·        Gold Prices Rose 0.68% W/W, Supported by Reports That the U.S. and Iran May Extend Their Ceasefire.

·        Ghana’s Treasury Records Second Consecutive Undersubscription as Yields Rise Across the Curve.

·        GSE Extends Decline as Broad-Based Pullbacks Persist Across Key Counters; GSE-CI Down 1.14% W/W to 63.67% YTD, While GSE‑FI Dropped 0.35% W/W to 68.99% YTD.

 Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Updates - June 1, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        U.S. Q1 GDP Growth Revised Lower

o   U.S. economic growth was revised down to an annualized 1.6% in Q1 2026, from an initial estimate of 2.0%, though still up from 0.5% in Q4 2025, reflecting downward revisions to consumer spending and investment. Consumer spending rose by 1.4% (vs 1.6%), driven mainly by services, while private investment increased by 7.0% (vs 8.7%), with strong gains in equipment and intellectual property offset by declines in structures and residential investment. Meanwhile, net trade weighed on growth (-1.25pp) as imports (21.1%) outpaced exports (13.1%), while government spending rose by 4.4%, unchanged from the earlier estimate.

·        Euro Area Unemployment Rate Edges Above Expectations

o   The Euro area unemployment rate stood at 6.3% in April 2026, unchanged from March but slightly above expectations of 6.2%, despite a decline in the number of unemployed by 84,000 to 11.08 million. Youth unemployment improved to 14.7% from 15.1%, while disparities across major economies persisted, with Spain (10.3%), France (8.2%), and Italy (5.1%) recording higher rates compared to Germany (3.8%) and the Netherlands (3.9%). The jobless rate was unchanged from a year earlier, while the broader EU unemployment rate held at 6.0%.

·        Japan Manufacturing Growth Confirmed at Slower Pace

o   Japan’s manufacturing activity was confirmed at a PMI of 54.5 in May 2026, unchanged from the preliminary estimate but down from 55.1 in April, signalling a moderation from the strongest reading since January 2022. Output continued to expand, supported in part by stockpiling efforts amid Middle East‑related supply disruptions, while new order growth eased slightly despite export demand rising at the fastest pace in five years.

·        China Composite PMI Edges Higher as Overall Activity Expands

o   China’s National Bureau Statistics Composite PMI rose to 50.5 in May 2026, up from 50.1 in April, marking a third consecutive month of expansion in overall business activity. The improvement was driven by a modest rebound in the services sector, while manufacturing remained broadly stable, although external headwinds continued to weigh on momentum. Elevated energy costs and supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, alongside lingering trade uncertainty with the US, continued to pressure margins and dampen business confidence.

GHANA 

·        Ghana Reserves Hit Multi‑Year High

o   Ghana’s gross international reserves climbed to a year‑plus high in May, reflecting improved external balances, yet the cedi continues to face sustained pressure from elevated dollar demand, dividend repatriation, and rising oil prices. Bank of Ghana data show reserves increasing to $14.4 billion as of May 18, 2026, up from US$13.8 billion at end‑2025, equivalent to 5.7 months of import cover, alongside a widening current account surplus to US$3.10 billion from US$2.43 billion a year earlier. Governor Dr. Johnson Asiama attributed the currency weakness to strong FX demand from the energy sector and seasonal corporate outflows, noting that the central bank continues to provide liquidity through regular auctions without resorting to aggressive intervention.

AFRICA 

·        South Africa Raises Policy Rate by 25bps Amid Rising Inflation Risks

o   The South African Reserve Bank increased its benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 7% on May 28, 2026, in line with expectations, marking the first rate hike since May 2023 (50 bps). The decision saw four of the six Monetary Policy Committee members vote in favor, while two preferred to maintain the current rate. The central bank cited heightened inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict and warned that overlapping shocks could lead to second-round effects, warranting tighter monetary policy to keep inflation within target.

·        Kenya Inflation Climbs to Near 2½‑Year High

o   Kenya’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 6.7% in May 2026, up from 5.6% in April and marking the highest level since January 2024. The increase was driven largely by a sharp rise in transport costs (16.5% vs 10.0%) following fuel price hikes linked to higher global energy prices amid geopolitical tensions. Additional upward pressure came from food inflation (9.4% vs 8.8%) and housing and utility costs (3.4% vs 2.4%), reflecting broadening price pressures.

·        Nigeria Private Sector Activity Climbs to Nine‑Month High

o   Nigeria’s private‑sector activity strengthened in May 2026, with the Stanbic IBTC Bank PMI rising to 54.1 from 52.4 in April, marking the strongest growth since August 2025. The expansion was driven by faster increases in output and new orders, prompting firms to scale up purchasing and inventory levels, while supplier performance improved and employment continued to rise modestly. Although input and output price pressures remained elevated due to higher fuel costs, inflation eased to multi‑month lows, while business confidence stayed positive despite slipping to a one‑year low amid ongoing cost pressures and uncertainty.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics