In this week's edition:

·        U.S. equities Closed Lower Last Week as Investors Recalibrated Ahead of Delayed Macroeconomic Releases

·        Gold Prices Slip by 0.46% Amid Mixed US Economic Data and Dovish Fed Signals

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed by 24.62% as Yields Saw Mixed Move Across the Curve

·        Ghanaian Equities Market Extended Its Positive Momentum Last Week, GSE-CI Up by 1.2% w/w to 74.31% YTD

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - November 24, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        Eurozone Inflation Steady at 2.1% in October

o   Eurozone inflation held at 2.1% in October, staying close to the ECB’s 2% target. Food and industrial goods inflation eased, while energy prices fell further. However, services inflation rose to 3.4%, signaling persistent underlying pressures. Core inflation was unchanged at 2.4%. Among major economies, price growth slowed in Germany, France, and Italy but ticked up in Spain.

·        US Consumer Sentiment Remains Near Record Low in November 

o   US consumer sentiment edged down to 51.0 in November from 53.6 in October, remaining near historic lows amid persistent price pressures and weakening incomes. Current conditions plunged to a record low, driven by sharp declines in personal finance assessments and durable-goods buying conditions. Expectations improved only slightly. Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.5%, while long-term expectations fell to 3.4%, signaling modestly softer inflation outlooks despite subdued sentiment.

·        US Manufacturing PMI Slips to 4-Month Low in November 

o   The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.9 in November 2025 from 52.5 in October, hitting a four-month low but still signaling expansion. Production growth eased slightly, while new order growth softened from October’s strong pace. Employment rose at the fastest rate since August, and longer supplier lead times provided a modest boost to the headline reading. Input inventories were little changed, pointing to stable supply-chain dynamics.

·        Euro Area Manufacturing PMI Falls to 5-Month Low

o   The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.7 in November, a five-month low, down from 50 in October and below forecasts. New orders and employment continued to decline, while output rose only slightly. Input costs increased for the first time in three months, though selling prices were unchanged. Business confidence improved, but economists note that deeper inventory cuts signal the sector is still months—possibly quarters—away from a sustained recovery.

·        China FDI Decline Eases but Remains in Contraction

o   Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into China fell 10.3% y/y to CNY 621.93 billion in the year to October 2025, marking the 30th consecutive month of contraction but the mildest drop since late 2023. Manufacturing attracted CNY 161.91 billion, services CNY 445.82 billion, and technology industries CNY 192.52 billion. The UAE accounted for nearly half of all inflows, with the UK and Switzerland also contributing meaningful investments.

• GHANA

·        BoG MPC Convenes Amid Market Expectation of Another Rate Cut

o   The Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) begins its 127th meeting today, November 24, 2025, to review macroeconomic developments and signal policy direction in what is expected to be the committee’s last meeting for 2025. The Ghana Cedi has been relatively stable, though slight depreciation is emerging ahead of the holiday season. Consumer inflation fell to 8% in October, below the 11.9% year-end target, while economic growth for the first half of the year averaged 6.3%, fueling expectations of possible monetary easing.

·        US Lifts 15% Tariff on Ghanaian Cocoa

o   The United States has formally removed the 15% tariff on Ghana’s cocoa and select agricultural exports, effective November 13, 2025, according to Foreign Affairs Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa. The move, following an Executive Order by US President Donald Trump, provides relief to Ghanaian farmers and exporters and is projected to generate around US$60 million in additional revenue. Ghana’s cocoa and other crops are now exempt from the US reciprocal tariff policy. 

• AFRICA

·        South Africa Cuts Benchmark Rate Amid Favorable Outlook

o   On November 20, 2025, the South African Reserve Bank lowered its key repo rate by 25 bps to 6.75%, following a unanimous decision. The move reflects a more favorable inflation outlook, despite October’s inflation rising slightly to 3.6%. SARB revised 2025–2026 inflation forecasts marginally lower and lifted 2025 growth to 1.3%. Officials indicated that gradual rate cuts could continue as inflation trends toward the 3% medium-term target, supporting balanced economic growth.

·        Nigeria Inflation Falls to 3½-Year Low

o   Nigeria’s annual inflation eased to 16.05% in October 2025, the lowest since March 2022, down from 18.02% in September, marking the seventh consecutive month of slowing price growth. Food inflation fell sharply to 13.12%, aided by the harvest and a stronger naira, while core inflation eased to 18.7%, the lowest since February 2023. Monthly CPI rose 0.9% in October, slightly higher than September’s 0.7% increase.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        U.S. Stocks Closed Lower Last Week, Amid Concerns over AI valuations and health of the US economy.

·        Gold Prices Dropped by 0.04% to Record the Third Consecutive Week of Decline Despite Renewed Expectations of Fed Rate Cut.

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction was Undersubscribed by 34.19% as Interest Rates Inched Higher.

·        Ghanaian Equities Market Closed the Week in Negative Territory, Dragged Down By Heavily Weighted MTNGH. 

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - November 10, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        China Consumer Prices Post Surprise Increase

o   China’s consumer prices rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October, surprising forecasts of no change and rebounding from a 0.3% decline in September. The gain, China’s first inflation uptick since June, was driven by stronger non-food inflation and holiday-related spending during Golden Week. Food prices fell at a slower pace, and core inflation rose to 1.2%, the highest in 20 months.

·        US Inflation Expectations Ease in October

o   US one-year inflation expectations slipped to 3.2% in October from 3.4%, while the three- and five-year outlooks held steady at 3.0%. Home price expectations remained unchanged at 3.0%. Consumers now expect lower price increases for gas (3.5%) and food (5.7%). However, expectations rose for major expenses: college costs (+8.2%), medical care (+9.4%), and rent (+7.2%).

·        Bank of England Holds Rate at 4%

o   At its 5 November meeting, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5–4 to maintain the Bank Rate at 4%, aligning with market expectations. Policymakers observed that Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation has peaked and underlying disinflation is underway. This trend is being supported by a still-restrictive policy stance, slower wage growth, and easing inflation in the services sector. The MPC noted that risks to achieving the 2% inflation target are now more evenly balanced. Given that previous rate cuts have already reduced the restrictiveness of monetary policy, future rate reductions will depend on incoming economic data.

·        Eurozone Business Activity Hits Fastest Pace Since 2023

o   The Eurozone Composite PMI rose to 52.5 in October, the strongest expansion since May 2023. Growth was driven by a sharp pickup in services while manufacturing edged up slightly. New business increased at the fastest rate in over two years, and employment reached a 16-month high. Input cost pressures eased, though businesses raised selling prices at the quickest pace in seven months.

·        China Producer Prices Decline at Slowest Pace in Over a Year

o   China’s producer prices fell 2.1% year-on-year in October, easing from a 2.3% drop in September and marking the mildest decline in 14 months. The slowdown—slightly better than expectations—signals some relief from prolonged factory-gate deflation. Consumer goods prices fell at a slower pace, while production material costs remained weak. On a monthly basis, producer prices edged up 0.1%, hinting at tentative stabilization.

• GHANA

·        Ghana Inflation Drops to 8%, Hits Mid-Point of Central Bank Target Range

o   Ghana’s inflation slowed to 8% in October, down from 9.4% in September—its lowest level in over four years and staying within the Bank of Ghana’s target band of 6–10% for the second consecutive month. The decline was helped by a stronger Cedi, up nearly 35% this year on higher cocoa and gold prices. Food inflation eased to 9.5%, while non-food inflation fell to 6.9%. Month-on-month, consumer prices declined by 0.4%.

·        S&P Upgrades Ghana’s Credit Rating to B‑

o   S&P has upgraded Ghana’s long-term foreign and local currency debt to B‑ from CCC+, with a stable outlook. The move reflects stronger exports of gold and cocoa, a rising cedi, and foreign reserves reaching nearly $11 billion. Inflation is expected to remain below 10% in 2026, while fiscal reforms aim to strengthen budget discipline.

• AFRICA

·        Egypt Inflation Hits 3-Month High of 12.5%

o   Egypt’s annual urban inflation rose to 12.5% in October 2025, up from 11.7% in September and above the 12.0% forecast, marking the highest level since July. The increase was driven by rising fuel prices, following a nearly 13% government hike on October 17, while food inflation edged up to 1.5%. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 1.8%, matching September’s pace and the fastest in four months.

·        South Africa Forex Reserves Hit Record USD 71.55B

o   South Africa’s gross foreign exchange reserves rose to a record USD71.55 billion in October 2025, up from USD69.74 billion in September. Foreign currency reserves increased to USD48.84 billion and gold reserves to USD16.21 billion. SDR holdings declined slightly to USD6.50 billion, while the forward position fell to USD0.60 billion from USD1.18 billion.

 Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        U.S. Stocks Ended the Past Week Mixed as Investors Bought Back Major Tech Names and Reassessed the Likelihood of a December Rate Cut.

·        Gold Prices Advanced by 2.07% w/w, Snapping a Two-Week Losing Streak.

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Records Undersubscription for the Fifth Consecutive Week as Interest Rates Inch Higher. 

·        Ghanaian Equities Market Closed the Week in Positive Territory, Raising Year-to-Date performance to 72.07%

• Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - November 17, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        Trump Signs Bill Ending Record 43-Day Government Shutdown

o   President Donald Trump signed a government funding bill, officially ending the 43-day shutdown, the longest in U.S. history. The House approved the measure 222-209 after Senate passage. The legislation reopens federal operations but sets a new funding deadline of January 30 2026, requiring lawmakers to resume negotiations to avoid another shutdown.

·        Eurozone GDP Growth Revised Up to 1.4%

o   The Eurozone economy grew by 1.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025, slightly above the initial 1.3% estimate, following a 1.5% outturn in Q2. Spain led major economies with growth of 2.8% growth, followed by the Netherlands (1.6%) and France (0.9%). Italy and Germany remained steady at 0.4% and 0.3%, while Ireland (12.3%), Portugal (2.4%), and Slovenia (1.6%) recorded relatively faster growth. Finland contracted by 0.9%, and growth in Lithuania slowed to 1.9%. Quarter-on-quarter, the Eurozone expanded by 0.2%, up from 0.1% in Q2, in line with the initial estimate.

·        UK GDP Growth Below Forecasts

o   The UK economy grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September 2025, below the 0.2% forecast and down from 0.2% in the prior period. By sector, services and construction rose by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, while production fell by 0.5%. In September alone, GDP contracted by 0.1% month-on-month versus an expected growth outturn of 0.1%.

·        China Industrial Output Growth Hits 14-Month Low

o   China’s industrial production grew by 4.9% year-on-year in October 2025, down from 6.5% in September and below the 5.5% forecast, marking the slowest increase since August 2024. Slower growth reflected weaker manufacturing (4.9% vs 7.3%) and mining (4.5% vs 6.4%), partly due to the Golden Week holiday, while electricity, heat, gas, and water production accelerated to 5.4%. Among manufacturing sectors, 29 of 41 industries expanded, including automotive (16.8%), computers & communications (8.9%), and railway & shipbuilding (15.2%). Year-to-date, industrial output rose 6.1%, with 0.17% monthly growth in October.

·        Q3 GDP Shrinks Less than Expected

o   Japan’s economy shrank 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, its first decline since early 2024, as weak private consumption and falling exports—hit by new U.S. tariffs—offset gains in government spending and business investment. The drop was smaller than the expected 0.6% fall and comes ahead of a planned stimulus to ease cost pressures and support exporters.

• GHANA

·        Ghana Eyes 4.8% Growth in 2026 as Economy Rebounds

o   Ghana’s economy has bounced back from its deepest crisis in a generation and is set for sustained growth in 2026, Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson told parliament during the budget presentation. Forson attributed the recovery to fiscal reforms and prudent policies, projecting real GDP growth of at least 4.8% next year. The government also targets a fiscal deficit of 4.0% of GDP and a primary surplus of around 1.5%, signalling a stronger macroeconomic footing. Other key targets for 2026 include a budget deficit of 2.0% of GDP on a commitment basis, a primary balance surplus of 1.5% of GDP and capital expenditure of 3.6% of GDP.

• AFRICA

·        S&P Upgrades South Africa’s Credit Rating to BB

o   Standard & Poor’s raised South Africa’s foreign currency long-term sovereign rating to BB from BB‑ on November 14, 2025, with a positive outlook—the country’s first upgrade since 2005. The upgrade reflects improving growth, a stronger fiscal trajectory, and reduced financial risks from state-owned enterprises, particularly Eskom. S&P noted that continued fiscal consolidation and accelerated economic reforms could further stabilise government debt and support stronger growth, despite trade and tariff challenges.

·        Egypt Unemployment Rises to 6.4% in Q3

o   Egypt’s jobless rate increased to 6.4% in Q3 2025, up from 6.1% in Q2. Male unemployment rose to 4.0% (from 3.5%), while female unemployment fell to 15.0% (from 15.8%). The labour force expanded by 3.3% to 34.73 million, up from 33.61 million in the previous quarter.

    Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        U.S. Stocks Extended the Previous Week’s gains Last Week, as Tech Stocks Rallied on AI optimism

·        Gold Prices Dropped by 2.68% to Record the Second Consecutive Week of Decline Due to Fading Expectations of a Federal Reserve Rate Cut

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction was Undersubscribed by 13.31% Amid Mixed Yield Movements, Although All Bids were Accepted

·        Ghanaian Equities Market Regained Its Bullish Momentum with Seven Gainers Elevating the GSE-CI by 0.22%

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - November 3, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        Trump, Xi Set to Finalize Trade and Tariff Deal

o   President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are expected to seal a long-awaited trade and tariff agreement Thursday in South Korea after months of strained relations. The deal could see the U.S. reduce tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for Beijing’s pledge to curb precursor chemicals used in fentanyl production. Trump also hinted at possible progress on TikTok’s U.S. ownership issue. Beijing expressed readiness to achieve “positive results.” Existing agreements that lowered retaliatory tariffs to roughly 55% on U.S. goods and 10% on Chinese goods, and reopened the rare earth magnet trade, are set to expire on November 10.

·        US Mortgage Rates Fall to 13-Month Low

o   The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 6.17% as of October 30, 2025 — the lowest since October 2024 and down from 6.19% a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac. The decline followed the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday. “Mortgage rates decreased for the fourth consecutive week. The last few months have brought lower rates, and homebuyers are increasingly entering the market,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

·        Euro Area Inflation Slows to 2.1%, Near ECB Target

o   Euro area inflation eased to 2.1% in October 2025, matching market expectations and down slightly from 2.2% in September, edging closer to the European Central Bank’s 2% goal, preliminary data showed. Food, alcohol, and tobacco prices rose at a slower 2.5% pace (vs 3.0%), driven by declines in both processed (2.4% vs 2.6%) and unprocessed food (3.2% vs 4.7%). Non-energy industrial goods inflation cooled to 0.6% (vs 0.8%), while energy costs fell further by 1.0% (vs -0.4%). Meanwhile, services inflation climbed for a second month to 3.4%, the highest since April, and core inflation stayed steady at 2.4%, just above forecasts of 2.3%.

·        UK House Prices Rise Above Forecasts

o   UK house prices rose 2.4% year-on-year in October 2025, topping forecasts of 2.3% and up from 2.2% in September, Nationwide reported. Prices increased 0.3% month-on-month, beating expectations of no change. Chief Economist Robert Gardner said the market remains resilient despite weak confidence and higher mortgage rates, with steady approvals and strong first-time buyer demand. He added that affordability could improve as income growth outpaces prices, supported by low unemployment and potential Bank Rate cuts.

·        China Manufacturing Growth Below Forecasts

o   China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.6 in October 2025 from September’s 51.2, missing the 50.9 forecast. Slower growth in new orders and output drove the slowdown, with domestic demand supporting orders while exports fell at the fastest pace since May. Employment rose for the first time in seven months, and purchasing activity increased for the fourth month. Input prices climbed moderately, but selling prices fell. Business sentiment slipped to a six-month low amid trade concerns. 

• GHANA

·        BoG to Inject $1B into Forex Market in November

o   The Bank of Ghana will inject $1 billion into the market in November under its FX Intermediation Programme, auctioning about $300 million twice weekly to licensed banks on a spot basis. In October, the BoG injected $1.15 billion, contributing to a 13.9% cedi appreciation against the dollar and a 34.86% YTD gain. The shift to spot, market-neutral auctions has improved dollar supply, market efficiency, and transparency. 

• AFRICA

·        Kenya Inflation Steady at 4.6%

o   Kenya’s annual inflation remained at 4.6% in October 2025, unchanged from September and the highest since June last year. Inflation stayed below the 5% midpoint of the central bank’s target for the 17th consecutive month, supported by weak domestic demand. Core inflation—the central bank’s preferred gauge—slowed to 2.7% from 2.9% in September. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2%, matching the previous month’s pace

·        South Africa PPI Inflation Rises Less than Expected

o   South Africa’s PPI inflation rose to 2.3% in September 2025 from 2.1% in August, below analysts’ forecast of 2.6% and the highest since August 2024. The increase was driven by food, beverages, tobacco, textiles, petroleum, and metals. On a monthly basis, producer prices fell 0.1%, down from a 0.3% rise in August.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics