Weekly Market Update - Monday, August 17, 2026

In this week's edition:

  • U.S. Stocks Closed Mixed Last Friday, as Macroeconomic Headwinds Weighed against Signs of Tech Optimism.
  • Gold Increased by 0.80% w/w as Expectations of a Fed Rate Hike Declined.
  • Ghana’s Treasury Rejects 56.72% of Total Bids Tendered, Forcing Interest Rates Down.
  • Broader Market Appreciation as GSE-CI Rises by 0.79% w/w to 74.54% YTD, GSE-FSI Also Rose by 1.19% w/w to 74.67% YTD.
Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - August 17, 2026

 

AROUND THE GLOBE   

  • Fitch Affirms U.S. at AA+ Amid Fiscal Strains
    • Fitch affirmed the U.S. sovereign credit rating at AA+ with a stable outlook, highlighting the country’s large economy, high per-capita income, and the dollar’s global reserve status. Despite tariffs, spending cuts, tighter border controls, and policy uncertainty, the economy has shown resilience and flexibility. Growth is projected to slow to 1.9% in 2026-2027 from 2.8% in 2025, with weaker labour demand and slower job creation. The fiscal outlook is pressured, with the deficit expected to widen to 7.4% of GDP in 2026-2027, the highest among AA-rated peers, driven by military, interest, Medicare, and Social Security costs.
  • U.S. Budget Deficit Widens in July
    • The US government posted a $432 billion budget deficit in July 2026, widening from a $291 billion shortfall a year earlier and exceeding forecasts for a $346 billion gap. Government outlays rose to $766 billion from $630 billion in July 2025, led by Medicare spending of $174 billion. Social Security costs reached $141 billion, while net interest accounted for $104 billion and national defence for $91 billion. Meanwhile, government receipts fell to $334 billion from $338 billion a year earlier, with individual income taxes contributing $173 billion and social insurance and retirement receipts totalling $139 billion.
  • U.S. Consumer Sentiment Falls in August
    • The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 51 in early August 2026, down from 55.2 in July and below market expectations of 54.5, ending two consecutive months of improvement. Both major components weakened, with the current conditions index declining to 51.8 and the expectations measure falling to 50.6. The deterioration was broad-based across political and demographic groups, with particularly sharp declines among older, lower-income and less-educated consumers, who are more exposed to rising prices.
  • Euro Area GDP Annual Growth Rate Confirmed at 1% in Q2
    • The Eurozone economy grew 1.0% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, accelerating from an upwardly revised 0.5% in the previous quarter, according to second estimates. Strong AI-related investment, resilient government spending, and one-off factors helped offset the impact of the conflict in Iran and higher energy prices. Among the largest euro area economies, Spain remained the standout performer, with annual GDP growth of 2.7%, followed by the Netherlands (1.3%), Italy (1.0%), Germany (0.9%), and France (0.7%). Quarterly, the Eurozone economy expanded 0.4%, its strongest pace since the first quarter of 2025.
  • PBoC Signals Targeted Support, No Major Easing
    • The People's Bank of China pledged to roll out “practical and effective” policy support promptly, while avoiding signals of major easing. In its quarterly monetary policy report released Wednesday, the central bank said it will intensify countercyclical adjustments, boost domestic demand, and channel more resources toward technological innovation and smaller firms. It vowed to conduct overnight reverse repo operations more frequently to fine-tune short-term rates, and urged that loans and bond financing be assessed together rather than focusing solely on credit growth.

AFRICA

  • Kenya Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged for 3rd Meeting
    • The Central Bank of Kenya left its benchmark interest rate at 8.75% on August 11th, 2026, a third straight hold, as policymakers stated that the current stance of monetary policy remained appropriate to ensure price and exchange rate stability. Headline inflation rose to 6.5%, driven by higher fuel costs that pushed up transportation and food prices, but remained within the bank’s 5% ±2.5% target range. Meanwhile, economic growth accelerated to 5.3% in the first quarter of 2026, from 4% in the previous quarter. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to remain within the target range in the near term, assuming a de-escalation of the Middle East conflict.
  • Egypt Jobless Rate Hits Record Low
    • Egypt’s unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in Q2 2026, down from 6% in the previous quarter, reaching a record low. The labour force increased by 0.6% to around 35.64 million, as the number of unemployed declined by 2.4% to approximately 2.08 million, and employment rose by 0.8% to 33.6 million, the highest level on record, suggesting an improved capacity of the economy to absorb new labour market entrants, despite persistent gender disparities in labour market participation.
  • South Africa Unemployment Rate Highest in 4 Years
    • South Africa’s unemployment rate rose to 33.6% in second quarter of 2026 from 32.7% in the first quarter, the highest since the second quarter of 2022. The number of unemployed people increased by 4.2% to 8.481 million, while employment edged down by 0.1% to 16.739 million. The labour force grew 1.3% to 25.220 million, although the participation rate slipped to 59.6%. The potential labour force, comprising people available but not seeking work or seeking work but unavailable, fell by 280,000 to 4.571 million, while those outside the labour force for other reasons increased by 72,000 to 12.519 million.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

Weekly Market Update - Monday, August 10, 2026

In this week's edition:

  • Gold Surged 7.30% w/w as a Weak U.S. Payrolls Report Lowered Interest Rate Expectations.
  • Ghana’s Treasury Auction Oversubscribed by 51.50% as Demand Stays Skewed to the Long End Despite Mixed Yield Movements.
  • Broader Market Declines as GSE-CI Falls by –1.60% w/w to 73.17% YTD, GSE-FSI Also Declines by –2.63% w/w to 72.60% YTD.
 

AROUND THE GLOBE   

  • U.S. Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.10% in July
    • The U.S. unemployment rate declined to 4.10% in July 2026, from 4.20% in June 2026, coming in below market expectations and marking the lowest level in four months. The improvement was largely driven by a contraction in the labour force, with the number of unemployed falling to 6.92 million (vs. 7.09 million in June), while total employment also declined to 162.18 million (vs. 162.26 million in June). Meanwhile, the labour force participation rate fell to 61.40% (vs. 61.50% in June), its lowest level since early 2021, and the employment-to-population ratio edged down to 58.90% (vs. 59.00% in June).
  • China Inflation Falls to Six‑Month Low in July
    • China’s annual inflation rate eased to 0.50% in July 2026, down from 1.00% in June 2026 and below market expectations of 0.80%, marking the weakest pace of inflation since January. The slowdown was driven by continued weakness in food prices, with food inflation remaining negative at -1.50% (vs. -1.60% in June), while non-food inflation slowed to 0.90% (vs. 1.50% in June), reflecting softer increases in transport costs (0.40% vs. 4.10%) following fuel price cuts and easing global energy prices. Meanwhile, core inflation eased to 0.90% (vs. 1.00% in June). On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.10% (vs. -0.30% in June), defying expectations for a 0.20% increase.
  • US Imposes a 15% Tariff on Polysilicon Imports
    • The Trump administration has imposed a 15.00% tariff on products made from polysilicon, a key input used in semiconductors and solar panels, as part of efforts to strengthen domestic manufacturing and curb China's influence in critical supply chains. In addition to the tariff, the administration introduced minimum import prices for polysilicon, wafers, solar cells, and solar modules, while authorizing the Commerce Department to establish incentive programs for firms investing in US-based polysilicon production. The measures, enacted under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, are intended to bolster domestic capacity in strategically important industries, though they could raise input costs for downstream manufacturers and renewable energy projects.
  • Euro Area Business Activity Expands at Fastest Pace in Eight Months
    • The S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI was revised higher to 52.00 in July 2026, from a preliminary estimate of 51.90 and 50.00 in June 2026, signalling the strongest expansion in business activity since November 2025. The improvement was broad-based, with the services sector returning to growth and manufacturing output expanding at a faster pace, while new business increased for the first time this year and at the strongest rate since November. Meanwhile, both input cost and output price inflation eased further, and business confidence rose to a five-month high, reflecting improving optimism about the Eurozone economic outlook.
  • U.K. Private Sector Activity Returns to Growth in July
    • The S&P Global UK Composite PMI rose to 52.20 in July 2026, from 49.003 in June 2026, broadly matching the preliminary estimate of 52.1 and marking the strongest expansion in private-sector activity since April. The recovery was driven by renewed growth in the services sector and the strongest increase in manufacturing output since September 2024, while new business expanded for the first time in three months, signaling improving demand conditions. Meanwhile, employment continued to decline, reflecting ongoing job losses in the services sector. 
  • Ghana Inflation Slows to 4.6% in July
    • Ghana’s annual inflation rate eased to 4.60% in July 2026, down from a six-month high of 5.30% in June 2026, marking the first decline after three consecutive monthly increases. The moderation was driven by softer food inflation (3.10% vs. 3.90% in June) and a slight easing in non-food inflation (6.10% vs. 6.30% in June), supported by a more stable exchange rate that helped contain imported price pressures. Accordingly, inflation for imported goods slowed to 2.00% (vs. 2.30% in June). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.10% (vs. 0.20% in June).

Egypt Inflation Accelerates to Three‑Month High in July

  • Egypt’s annual urban inflation rate rose to 14.90% in July 2026, up from 14.30% in June 2026, marking the first increase in four months and the highest reading since April, although it remained below market expectations of 15.10%. The acceleration was driven mainly by food and beverage inflation, which climbed to 8.00% (vs. 5.40% in June), the strongest increase in 14 months, while transport inflation edged up to 24.50% (vs. 24.40% in June) as the impact of earlier fuel price hikes continued to filter through the economy. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat (0.00% vs. -0.40% in June), following the first monthly decline recorded since July 2025.

Nigeria Private Sector Growth Moderates in July

  • Nigeria’s private-sector activity continued to expand in July 2026, although the pace of growth eased, with the Stanbic IBTC PMI falling to 52.5 from 53.4 in June. Growth remained supported by rising new orders, stronger customer demand, competitive pricing, and product launches, while business activity increased further, led by the agriculture and manufacturing sectors. Firms continued to increase employment and purchasing activity to meet higher workloads, although backlogs rose slightly amid logistical challenges.

South Africa Private Sector Expands for Second Straight Month

  • South Africa’s private-sector activity remained in expansion territory in July 2026, with the S&P Global PMI easing slightly to 50.3 from 50.5 in June, signaling a modest improvement in business conditions. While business activity returned to growth for the first time in three months, supported by softer inflationary pressures and improved operational efficiency, new orders contracted for a third consecutive month amid weak consumer demand, political protests, and competition from cheaper imports, although export orders increased for a second straight month.

South Africa FX Reserves Fall to Eight‑Month Low

  • South Africa’s gross foreign exchange reserves declined to USD 73.45 billion in July 2026, from USD 74.11 billion in June, marking their lowest level since November 2025. The decline was primarily driven by a drop in foreign currency reserves to USD 50.41 billion (vs. USD 51.22 billion in June), partly reflecting government foreign exchange payments, including the repayment of a USD 574.00 million foreign loan. In contrast, gold reserves increased to USD 16.38 billion (vs. USD 16.26 billion in June), supported by higher US Dollar gold prices, while SDR holdings rose to USD 6.67 billion (vs. USD 6.63 billion).

Weekly Market Update - Monday, July 27, 2026

In this week’s edition:

  • U.S. Equities Declined at Week Close as Escalating Middle East Tensions and Rising Oil Prices Fuel Inflation Concerns and Reinforce Expectations of a More Hawkish Federal Reserve.

  • Gold Gained 0.88% W/W, Supported by a Strong Safe-haven Demand Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty and Red Sea Supply Disruptions.

  • Ghana’s Treasury Auction Oversubscribed by 21.63% as Long-Term Demand Remains Strong.

  • GSE Glides in Positive Territory as Broad-Based Gains Lift Market; GSE-CI Up 2.63% w/w to 74.80% YTD, While GSE‑FI Rose 0.19% W/W to 78.20% YTD.

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Updates - July 27, 2026

 

AROUND THE GLOBE   

  • U.S Business Activity Growth Accelerates to Eight‑Month High

    • US private‑sector activity strengthened in July 2026, with the S&P Global Composite PMI rising to 53.6 from 51.9 in June, marking the strongest expansion since November 2025. The improvement was driven by the services sector, where activity accelerated to an eight‑month high, while manufacturing output continued to grow but at a slower pace, recording its weakest increase since March. Hiring increased for the first time in three months and business confidence climbed to an eight‑month high, although supplier delivery times deteriorated to their worst level in nearly four years amid Middle East-related disruptions.

  • ECB Holds Rates Steady as Energy Risks Persist

    • The European Central Bank left its key interest rates unchanged in July 2026, following a 25bp increase in June, as policymakers adopted a more cautious stance amid easing inflationary pressures and softer economic momentum. The ECB noted that while energy prices remain volatile, the outlook is broadly consistent with its June projections, though uncertainty remains elevated and the full impact of the recent energy shock has yet to be reflected in inflation data. 

  • UK Inflation Eases More Than Expected in June

    • The UK’s annual inflation rate slowed to 2.6% in June 2026, down from 2.8% in May 2026 and below market expectations of 2.7%, marking the lowest reading since March 2025. The moderation was driven by softer transport inflation (5.7% vs. 6.8% in May), largely reflecting lower fuel prices, while food inflation eased to 1.7% (vs. 2.2% in May), its lowest level since August 2024. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.1% (vs. 0.2% in May), in line with market forecasts.

  • Euro Area Services Activity Returns to Expansion in July

    • The Eurozone services sector returned to growth in July 2026, with the S&P Global Services PMI rising to 51.6 from 49.4 in June, marking a five‑month high and comfortably exceeding market expectations of 49.8. The rebound reflected renewed growth in business activity, while employment improved, with service providers leading overall job creation across the private sector.

  • UK Private Sector Activity Rebounds in July

    • The S&P Global UK Composite PMI rose to 52.1 in July 2026, up from 49.3 in June and well above market expectations of 49.7, marking a return to expansion after two consecutive months of contraction. The improvement was supported by stronger activity in both manufacturing (53.6 vs. 52.6 in June) and services (51.8 vs. 48.8 in June), with the latter recovering from second-quarter weakness caused by the Iran conflict, which had pushed up energy costs and weighed on consumer demand.

 

GHANA 

  • BoG Keeps Policy Rate Unchanged at 14%

    • The Bank of Ghana (BoG) maintained its benchmark interest rate at 14.0% during its July 2026 meeting, extending a pause in its easing cycle after five consecutive rate cuts. The decision reflects a cautious policy stance amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and renewed inflation risks, with Governor Johnson Asiama noting that policymakers need more time to assess incoming data and its implications for the domestic economy. Meanwhile, headline inflation accelerated to 5.3% in June from 3.7% in May, driven largely by higher fertilizer and energy-related costs following the earlier surge in global oil prices.

 

AFRICA 

Nigeria Holds Policy Rate at 26.5% Amid Persistent Inflation Risks

  • The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 26.5% at its July 2026 meeting, maintaining a cautious stance amid persistent inflationary pressures and heightened uncertainty stemming from renewed tensions in the Middle East. Governor Olayemi Cardoso noted that the Nigerian economy has remained relatively resilient to external shocks, supported in part by expanding domestic refining capacity, while policymakers opted to hold rates steady to assess incoming economic data.

    South Africa Unexpectedly Holds Rates Steady

  • The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 7.0% in July 2026, surprising markets that had widely expected a 25bp rate increase, as policymakers sought to balance persistent inflation risks against a fragile economic recovery. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 4–2 in favor of holding rates, citing a more favorable inflation outlook and weaker growth conditions, while reaffirming its commitment to gradually steering inflation toward its 3.0% target.

 

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economic

Weekly Market Update - Monday, August 3, 2026

In this week's edition:

  • U.S. Stocks Closed Higher Last Week as Gains in Major Technology Stocks Lifted the Market in a Volatile Week.
  • Ghana’s Treasury Auction Oversubscribed by 47.48% as Demand Stays Skewed to the Long End Despite Mixed Yield Movements.
  • Broader Market Extends Gains as GSE-CI Rises 0.68% w/w to 75.99% YTD Despite Continued Pullback in Financial Stocks. 
Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - August 03, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

  • U.S GDP Growth Slows in Q2 2026
    • The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized 1.50% in Q2 2026, slowing from 2.10% in Q1 2026 and falling short of market expectations of 2.10%, according to the advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The moderation reflected slower growth in non-residential fixed investment (8.40% in Q2 vs. 10.60% Q1), a deeper drag from net exports (-1.01pp in Q1 vs. -0.37pp in Q2) due to weaker export growth (4.50% in Q2 vs. 10.90% in Q1), and a decline in government spending (-0.80% in Q2 vs. 4.40% in Q1). However, consumer spending accelerated sharply to 3.20% (vs. 0.50% in Q2), supported by stronger spending on vehicles, healthcare, furniture, and hospitality services, while residential investment rose 1.50%, marking its first increase in six quarters.
  • Fed Holds Rates Steady, Signals Potential for Further Tightening
    • The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29, 2026, marking a fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change and aligning with market expectations. However, three FOMC members dissented in favor of a 25bp rate hike, signaling that policymakers remain concerned about inflation and leaving the door open to a possible rate increase in September. While acknowledging the economy's resilience, policymakers stressed that inflation remains above the 2.00% target, partly reflecting energy-related supply shocks, and reaffirmed their commitment to restoring price stability.
  • BoE Holds Rates Steady, Warns of Upside Inflation Risks
    • The Bank of England left its Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% on July 30, 2026, with a 6–3 vote split, as policymakers balanced easing inflation against persistent risks from higher energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty. While headline inflation slowed to 2.60%, the Bank cautioned that price pressures could re-emerge later this year as elevated energy costs feed through to households and businesses, prompting three MPC members to vote for a 25bp hike to 4.00%.
  • Eurozone Inflation Rises to 2.90% in July
    • The Eurozone annual inflation accelerated to 2.90% in July 2026, up from 2.80% in June 2026 and in line with market expectations, remaining well above the ECB’s 2.0% target. The increase was driven mainly by a renewed pickup in energy inflation (10.00% vs. 8.50% in June) following the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran, while services inflation edged higher to 3.30% (vs. 3.20% in June) and non-energy industrial goods inflation rose to 0.90% (vs. 0.70% in June). Meanwhile, food, alcohol, and tobacco inflation eased to 1.20% (vs. 1.50% in June), but core inflation increased to 2.50% (vs. 2.40% in June), signalling firmer underlying price pressures.
  • Eurozone Growth Beats Expectations in Q2 2026
    • The Eurozone economy expanded by 1.00% y/y in Q2 2026, accelerating from an upwardly revised 0.50% in Q1 2026 and comfortably surpassing market expectations of 0.50%, according to preliminary estimates. Growth was supported by strong AI-related investment, resilient government spending, and temporary one-off factors, which helped offset the impact of the Iran conflict and higher energy prices. Among the bloc’s largest economies, Spain (2.70%) remained the strongest performer, followed by the Netherlands (1.30%), Italy (1.00%), Germany (0.90%), and France (0.70%). On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 0.40% q/q, accelerating from 0.2% in Q1 2026 and doubling market expectations, marking the strongest expansion since Q1 2025.
  • IMF Completes Final ECF Review, Unlocks US$371mn for Ghana

    • The IMF Executive Board has approved the final review of Ghana’s US$3.00 billion Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme, unlocking a final disbursement of about US$371.00 million and bringing the three-year bailout arrangement to a successful conclusion. The programme, launched in 2023, supported fiscal reforms, macroeconomic stabilization, and debt sustainability efforts following Ghana’s economic crisis. Following the ECF’s completion, Ghana will transition to a 36-month Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), a non-financing arrangement aimed at sustaining reforms, maintaining policy credibility, and consolidating recent economic gains.
  • Ghana Targets GH¢16.30bn in First Cocoa Bill Sale Since Debt Default
     
    • Ghana is seeking to raise GH¢16.30 billion (about US$1.40 billion) through its first cocoa bill issuance since the country’s 2022 debt default, with the 270-day instrument expected to be offered to domestic institutional investors in early August. The proceeds will be used by COCOBOD to finance cocoa purchases from farmers during the 2026/27 crop season, marking the regulator’s largest cedi-denominated fundraising transaction to date. The issuance forms part of efforts to reduce reliance on external borrowing, with the bills to be issued through a special purpose vehicle, Cocoa Notes and Bonds Plc, listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange and supported by a sinking fund backed by cocoa export revenues to facilitate repayment and future issuances.
  • Kenya Inflation Edges Higher in July
  • Kenya’s annual inflation rate rose slightly to 6.50% in July 2026, from 6.40% in June 2026, remaining above the midpoint of the central bank’s 2.50%-7.50% target range for a third consecutive month. The increase was driven mainly by transport inflation (15.6% ), reflecting the lingering pass-through effects of earlier fuel price hikes, while food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation remained elevated at 9.0% (vs. 8.6% in June). Similarly, core inflation edged up to 3.2% (vs. 3.1% in June), signaling a modest build-up in underlying price pressures.
  • South Africa Producer Inflation Eases in June
  • South Africa’s producer price inflation slowed to 7.5% y/y in June 2026, down from an over three-year high of 7.8% in May 2026, as price pressures moderated across several manufacturing categories. The deceleration was driven by softer inflation in food, beverages and tobacco (1.3% vs. 2.1% in May), paper and printed products (8.5% vs. 8.7% in May), electrical machinery and communication equipment (6.2% vs. 6.9% in May), transport equipment (0.6% vs. 0.7% in May), and furniture (4.6% vs. 8.2% in May). On a monthly basis, producer prices fell 0.1%, reversing a 2.6% increase in May.

Weekly Market Update - Monday, July 20, 2026

In this week’s edition: 

  • U.S. Equities Closed Mixed, as Chipmaker Volatility Offset Support from Declining Treasury Yields.

  • Gold Prices Fell 2.49% W/W, as Rising Oil Prices and Escalating U.S.-Iran Tensions Strengthened Expectations of Prolonged Tight Fed Policy. 

  • Ghana’s Treasury Auction Oversubscribed by 35.55% as Long-Term Demand Remains Strong and 364-Day Yield Edges Higher.

  • GSE Glides In Positive Territory as Broad-Based Gains Lift Market; GSE-CI Up 0.89% w/w to 70.32% YTD, While GSE‑FI Rose 0.30% W/W to 77.86% YTD.

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Updates - July 20, 2026

 
AROUND THE GLOBE   

U.S. Inflation Falls More Than Expected in June

  • The U.S. annual inflation rate slowed to 3.5% in June 2026, down from 4.2% in May 2026 and below market expectations of 3.8%, marking the first decline in five months. The moderation was driven largely by easing energy pressures, with energy inflation slowing to 15.7% (vs. 23.5% in May), including softer increases in gasoline prices (26.7% vs. 40.5% in May) and fuel oil (42.9% vs. 58.9% in May), following the US-Iran ceasefire. Inflation also eased for shelter (3.3% vs. 3.4% in May) and food (3.0% vs. 3.1% in May), while core inflation slowed to 2.6% (vs. 2.9% in May), below expectations of 2.8%. On a monthly basis, CPI fell by 0.4% (vs. +0.5% in May), marking the largest decline since April 2020 and exceeding forecasts for a 0.1% drop, as energy prices fell by 5.7% (vs. +3.9% in May), including a 9.7% decline in gasoline prices. Meanwhile, core CPI was unchanged (vs. +0.2% in May), undershooting expectations for a 0.2% increase.

Eurozone Inflation Confirmed at Four‑Month Low in June

  • Eurozone annual inflation was confirmed at 2.8% in June 2026, down from 3.2% in May 2026 and marking its lowest level since February, although it remained above the ECB’s 2.0% target. The slowdown was driven by softer energy inflation (8.5% vs. 10.8% in May), alongside moderating price growth in services, non‑energy industrial goods, and food, alcohol and tobacco. Meanwhile, core inflation eased to 2.4% (vs. 2.6% in May), while inflation slowed across major economies including Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands, and held steady at 3.6% in Spain.

    China’s Economy Expands 0.9% in Q2 2026

  • China’s economy grew by 0.9% q/q in Q2 2026, matching market expectations but slowing from 1.3% in Q1, marking the weakest quarterly expansion since Q2 2024. Growth was constrained by soft domestic demand and the lingering impact of the Iran war-induced oil shock, which offset the resilience of exports and manufacturing activity, while household consumption and private investment remained subdued amid the prolonged property sector downturn. The data has strengthened expectations for additional policy support ahead of the late-July Politburo meeting, with authorities likely to rely more on fiscal stimulus to sustain growth as the scope for further monetary easing remains limited.

    UK Economy Returns to Growth in May

  • The UK economy expanded by 0.1% m/m in May 2026, rebounding from a 0.1% contraction in April 2026 and matching market expectations, with growth driven entirely by a 0.3% increase in services output. Gains in professional, scientific and technical activities, alongside advances in administrative and support services and healthcare, offset declines in production (-0.5%) and construction (-0.8%). On an annual basis, GDP grew by 1.3%, marking the strongest expansion since July 2025, while growth over the three months to May remained solid at 0.7%, supported by services (0.7%), construction (1.6%), and production (0.1%).

GHANA 

COCOBOD Settles GH¢162mn Outstanding Cocoa Bill Obligations

  • The Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) has fully settled GH¢162 million in outstanding obligations owed to Cocoa Bill holders who did not participate in the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP), bringing closure to a long-standing debt issue that has remained unresolved since the debt restructuring exercise began in 2023. The repayment clears one of COCOBOD’s remaining legacy liabilities from the restructuring period and forms part of efforts to restore investor confidence and strengthen its financial position. The obligations stem from COCOBOD’s 2023 exchange of GH¢7.93 billion in short-term Cocoa Bills, under which many investors participated, while a portion of holders opted out and retained their original claims, which have now been fully settled.

AFRICA 

Nigeria Inflation Remains Largely Stable in June

  • Nigeria’s annual inflation rate was broadly unchanged at 15.91% in June 2026, compared with 15.93% in May 2026, as relative stability in the naira helped offset inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict. Food inflation accelerated to 17.52% (vs. 16.96% in May) and housing and utilities inflation rose to 11.19% (vs. 9.79% in May), while price pressures eased across several categories, including transportation (15.62% vs. 17.09% in May), clothing and footwear (6.39% vs. 6.79% in May), restaurants and hotels (23.63% vs. 24.04% in May), and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (2.94% vs. 3.89% in May). Meanwhile, core inflation slowed to 15.92% (vs. 16.82% in May), while monthly CPI growth eased to 1.66% (vs. 1.75% in May), marking the slowest increase in five months.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

  1. Weekly Market Update - Monday, July 13, 2026
  2. Weekly Market Update - Monday, July 6, 2026
  3. Weekly Market Update - Monday, June 22, 2026
  4. Weekly Market Update - Monday, June 15, 2026

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