In this week's edition:
· US Equities Extend Gains as Nonfarm Payrolls Beat Estimates
· Gold Rises 1.29% Amid U.S. Fiscal Deficit Concerns and Lingering Tariff Uncertainty
· Ghana’s Treasury Accepts All Bids but Records 11.57% Undersubscription, Sixth Straight Week of Shortfall
· The Ghana Stock Exchange Rally Continues, Led by Financials and TOTAL; GSE-CI Climbs to 29.84% YTD, GSE-FSI Soars to 43.03% YTD.
Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - July 7, 2025
AROUND THE GLOBE
· US Nonfarm Payrolls Beat Forecasts in June
o US nonfarm payrolls rose by 147K in June 2025, surpassing forecasts of 110K and matching the 12-month average. Government hiring led gains (+73K), mostly in state and local education. Health care added 39K jobs, while social assistance rose 19K. However, federal employment declined (-7K). Despite current resilience, hiring may slow amid trade and immigration uncertainty. The stronger-than-expected job growth could reduce the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the near term.
· Trump’s Tariffs Set to Take Effect August 1
o US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that new tariffs will begin on August 1, as President Trump finalizes trade deals and sets rates. Trump noted that some agreements are already in place, while official notices will be sent to other nations. If no deal is reached, tariffs could revert to April 2 levels, ending a 90-day reprieve.
· Eurozone Inflation Hits ECB Target in June
o Eurozone inflation rose to 2.0% in June 2025, up slightly from 1.9% in May, matching the ECB’s target. Services inflation quickened to 3.3%, while energy price declines eased. Inflation for food and industrial goods moderated. Core inflation stayed at 2.3%, its lowest since January 2022. Germany’s inflation slowed, while France and Spain posted slight increases.
· Eurozone Unemployment Ticks Up from Record Low
o The Euro Area unemployment rate edged up to 6.3% in May 2025 from April’s record low of 6.2%, slightly above expectations. The number of unemployed rose by 54,000 to 10.83 million. Youth unemployment held at 14.4%. Germany and the Netherlands posted the lowest rates, while Spain, France, and Italy reported higher figures.
· China Composite PMI Rebounds to 3-Month High
o China’s Caixin Composite PMI rose to 51.3 in June 2025 from 49.6 in May, the strongest since March. A pickup in manufacturing offset slowing services growth. While new business rebounded, exports remained weak and job cuts continued. Firms reduced selling prices sharply, the biggest drop in over two years, to spur demand, even as input costs slightly declined.
- GHANA
· Ghana Inflation Falls to 13.7% in June, Lowest Since 2021
o Ghana’s annual inflation rate dropped to 13.7% in June 2025, its lowest in three and half years, driven by continued Cedi appreciation. Food inflation slowed sharply to 16.3% from 22.8% in May, while non-food inflation eased to 11.4% from 14.4%. This marks the sixth consecutive month of disinflation, reinforcing expectations of further price stability. The sustained downward trend in inflation strengthens the case for a potential policy rate cut at the Bank of Ghana’s next MPC meeting.
· Ghana Pays US$1.17bn in Eurobond Coupons, Fully Meets 2025 Obligations
o Ghana has completed all Eurobond coupon payments for 2025, disbursing US$1.17 billion since the October 2024 debt restructuring deal. The latest US$349.52 million payment on July 3 confirms the country’s commitment to prudent debt management. Officials expect this discipline to boost investor confidence and credit ratings, ahead of higher external obligations in 2026.
- AFRICA
· Kenya GDP Grows 4.9% in Q1 2025 on Strong Agricultural Output
o Kenya’s economy expanded by 4.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, following a 5.1% increase in Q4 2024. Growth was driven by a 6% rise in agriculture, supported by favorable rains and government subsidies. Key sectors like ICT, trade, real estate, and finance also posted solid gains. Seasonally adjusted quarterly growth slowed to 0.8%, the weakest in a year.
· South Africa’s Forex Reserves Hit Record $68.4bn in June
o South Africa’s gross foreign exchange reserves rose to a record $68.42 billion in June 2025, up from $68.12 billion in May. The increase was driven by higher SDR holdings and foreign currency reserves, despite a slight dip in gold reserves. The central bank’s forward position also edged up to $0.532 billion, reflecting stronger external buffers.
· South Africa, Nigeria Propel Intra-Africa Trade to $220.3bn in 2024
o Intra-Africa trade rose by 12.4% to $220.3 billion in 2024, rebounding from a 5.9% decline in 2023, per Afreximbank's African Trade Report. South Africa led with $42.14 billion, while Nigeria’s trade surged to $18.43 billion, driven by refined oil and manufactured goods exports. The Dangote Refinery played a key role in Nigeria’s export momentum.
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics
