• The impact of a drop in EGH's price proved weightier against four gainers on the GSE, as the two indices recorded declines in the week.
• Government missed its target of GHS 1,000.00m from the issuance of a new 5-Year Bond through which it raised GHS 616.30m.

ECONOMIC SCOOP

Further easing in food prices brings inflation rate down to 10.40%.

• Food inflation which accounted for 47.60% of inflationary pressures in September slid from 11.40% in August 2020 to 11.20% in September 2020, causing overall inflation to drop from 10.50% to 10.40%.
• Likewise, non-food inflation dipped from 9.90% in August 2020 to 9.80% in September 2020.
• Greater Accra witnessed the highest inflation rate of 14.30%, while the Upper West Region recorded the lowest inflation rate of 1.30%.

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• The GSE-CI and GSE-FSI recorded week-on-week gains of 18.66 points and 23.39 points to keep the local bourse on a two-week positive run. Similarly, SCB maintained its upward stride for a third week running.
• Government raised total funds of GHS 919.34m from 91 and 182-Day Bills issuances. Book building is expected to start on Wednesday 14th October 2020 for a new 5-Year Bond.

ECONOMIC SCOOP

World Bank forecasts GDP contraction of -3.30% for Sub-Saharan Africa leading the region into recession for the first time in 25 years.

• The contraction is expected to be deep for countries with high dependence on extractive resources such as South Africa, Nigeria and Angola.
• Metal dependent countries are expected see an average decline of 6%, while the GDP of oil dependent countries is expected to come in around -4%.
• On the other hand, while the growth of non-resource dependent countries i.e. Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya etc. is expected to slow down, the World Bank forecasts it to remain positive.

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• The GSE-CI and GSE-FSI continued their poor run of performance with declines of 6.91 points and 12.58 points respectively, closing the week with year-to-date returns of -18.73% and -17.97%.
• Government exceeded its target for last week's auction by 12.38%, with 3bps increase in yields on the 91 and 182-Day Bills.

ECONOMIC SCOOP

Ghana’s debt stock increases by 1.66% between July 2020 and August 2020, while imports and exports tumble

• According to the latest Economic and Financial Data Report, Ghana’s debt stock rose from GHS 258.8 billion in July 2020 to GHS 263.10 billion in August 2020, increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio from 67.20% to 68.30%.
• The external component of the total debt stands at GHS 138 billion, with the domestic debt level at GHS 125.10 billion.
• The total cumulative value of imports and exports declined from GHS 9,149.60 million and GHS 10,570.60 at August 2019 to GHS million 8,304.30 million and GHS 9,622.30 million respectively.

Bank of Ghana to announce the Policy Rate today

• This follows the conclusion of the 96^th Monetary Policy Committee meeting which was held from 22^nd to 25^th September 2020.
• We expect the Policy Rate to be maintained at 14.50% as the Central Bank looks to create an enabling environment to spur economic activity.

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• There was some respite on the local bourse at the close of trading last week as the GSE-CI and GSE-FSI closed with gains of 13.58 and 3.40 points respectively.
• Government could only raise GHS 1,797.45m out of the GHS 2,504.00m it sought to raise at last week’s auction, falling short of its target by 28.22%.

ECONOMIC SCOOP             

Ghana’s economy contracts by 3.20% in the second quarter of 2020 

• The latest release by the Ghana Statistical Service shows that Ghana’s economy contracted by 3.20% in Q2 2020 as against growth of 5.70% in Q2 2019. 
• The Industry and Services sectors recorded contractions of 5.70% and 2.60% respectively, while the Agriculture sector recorded growth of 2.50%.  
• The impact of the restrictive measures put in place to stop the spread of COVID-19 was telling for the Hotel & Restaurants sub-sector which contracted by 79.40%.
• On the other hand, the Information & Communication sub-sector expanded by 74.20% in Q2 2020.

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to commence its 96^th meeting today

• The MPC of the BoG is scheduled to start its monetary policy meeting today Tuesday 22^nd September 2020 and conclude on Friday 25^th September 2020.
• The Committee will subsequently announce its decision on Monday 28^th September 2020.
• We expect the Policy Rate to be maintained at 14.50% as the Central Bank looks to create an enabling environment to spur economic activity.

Read the full report here