In this week’s edition: 

·                  US Equities Rally Strongly on Renewed Optimism Around Trade Talks  

·                  Gold Extends Decline Amid Easing Trade Tensions, Down by 0.38% W/W 

·                  Ghana’s Treasury Auction Sees Strong Demand for Second Week, Oversubscribed by 96.87% as Yields Fall Sharply 

·                  Ghana Stock Exchange Rebounds on MTNGH Rally; Financials Lag Behind — GSE-CI Rises to 36.51% YTD, GSE-FSI Slips to 43.33% YTD  

 Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - July 28, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE    

·                  U.S. and EU Reach Trade Deal to Avoid Tariff War 

o        The U.S. and EU struck a major trade deal, imposing a unified 15% tariff on most EU exports, including cars, to prevent a tariff war. Announced in Scotland by Donald Trump and Ursula von der Leyen, the pact includes U.S. energy purchases, investment pledges, and market access expansions. Metals duties will shift to a quota system; key details remain undisclosed. 

·                  ECB Pauses Rate Cuts as Trade Risks Cloud Outlook 

o        The European Central Bank (ECB) held rates steady in July, ending its year-long easing cycle after eight cuts. The main refinancing rate remains at 2.15%, and the deposit rate at 2.0%. With inflation at the 2% target and trade tensions rising, the ECB adopted a cautious stance. President Lagarde said the Bank is “in a good place” but noted uncertainty around the inflation impact of U.S. tariffs. While not targeting exchange rates, she said the Euro's strength factors into inflation forecasts. 

·                  US Composite PMI Hits 7-Month High in July 

o        The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 54.6 in July 2025 from 52.9, the fastest growth pace this year. Services activity led the expansion, while manufacturing grew modestly. Employment increased, but business confidence slipped due to federal spending cuts and tariffs. Rising wage costs and input prices pushed output inflation to a three-year high. 

·                  Eurozone Lending Growth Accelerates in June 

o        Eurozone bank lending to households grew by 2.2% y/y in June 2025, the fastest pace since May 2023 and above a consensus forecast of 1.9%, reflecting recovering credit demand amid ECB policy easing. Business lending also rose to 2.7% from 2.5% in May. Overall private sector credit growth climbed to 3%, up from 2.8% the previous month. 

·                  China FDI Falls 15.2% in H1 Despite Sectoral and Regional Bright Spots 

o        Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China dropped by 15.2% y/y to CNY 423.23 billion in H1 2025. Despite the overall decline, high-tech sectors saw gains: e-commerce services (127.1%), chemical pharma (53%), aerospace (36.2%), and medical devices (17.7%). Regionally, FDI from ASEAN (8.8%), Switzerland (68.6%), and Japan (59.1%) rose, helping to cushion the broader fall in investor inflows.

GHANA  

·                  Ghana Cuts Budget Deficit Target to 2.8% on Stronger Revenue Outlook 

o        Ghana has lowered its 2025 budget deficit target to 2.8% of GDP from 3.1%, citing improved revenue and reduced spending. In his mid-year budget review, Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson projected GHS 229.9bn in revenue and GHS 269.5bn in expenditure, trimming borrowing needs by GHS 4.3bn. The revisions align with IMF targets and reflect continued fiscal consolidation under Ghana’s $3bn bailout programme. 

·                  BoG’s MPC Commences Economic Review to Guide Policy Rate 

o        The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana (BoG) commenced its 125th regular meeting today, July 28, 2025, to evaluate recent macroeconomic developments and determine the future path of interest rates. The three-day session will review inflation trends, exchange rate stability, and fiscal performance. Although inflation has eased and the cedi has appreciated, the IMF has advised the central bank to sustain a tight monetary stance to curb inflation expectations. Markets await the MPC’s decision for policy direction cues. 

AFRICA  

·                  South Africa Inflation Hits 4-Month High at 3% in June 

o        South Africa’s inflation rate climbed to 3% in June 2025, up from 2.8% in April and May, marking a four-month high. The rise was driven by cost increases in food, health, and personal services. However, core inflation eased to 2.9%, its lowest since April 2021. Monthly inflation rose by 0.3%. Declining transport costs and slower housing price growth helped offset some upward pressure. 

·                  Nigeria Holds Interest Rate at 27.5% Amid Cooling Inflation 

o        The Central Bank of Nigeria maintained its benchmark interest rate at 27.5% on July 22, 2025, marking the third straight hold. This decision follows a continued drop in headline inflation to 22.22% in June, though core and monthly inflation ticked higher. The Monetary Policy Committee emphasized global risks, including U.S. tariffs, and stressed the need to sustain its current stance to fully tame inflationary pressures. 

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        US Equities Decline as Investors React to Renewed Tariff Threats from the Trump Administration

·        Gold Strengthens by 0.55% Following New Tariff Announcements by President Trump

·        Ghana’s Treasury Misses Ambitious Target by 39.68%, Marking Seventh Straight Week of Undersubscription as Yields Continue to Decline

·        Ghana Stock Exchange Extends Uptrend, Driven by Gains in TOTAL and Financials; GSE-CI Up to 31.43% YTD, GSE-FSI Rises to 44.03% YTD.

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - July 14, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        Trump Announces 25% Tariffs on Key Trade Partners

o   President Trump imposed a 25% tariff rate on 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea, and several Asian and African nations, citing stalled trade talks. He extended the reciprocal tariff deadline to August 1 and warned of an extra 10% tariff on nations backing BRICS “Anti-American policies,” intensifying trade tensions as the BRICS summit unfolds in Brazil.

·        China Consumer Prices Rise for First Time in 5 Months

o   China’s consumer prices rose by 0.1% y/y in June 2025, ending a four-month deflation streak amid e-commerce promotions, government subsidies, and easing trade risks. Core inflation rose to a 14-month high of 0.7%. While food prices continued to decline, the pace slowed. Despite the rebound, the monthly CPI fell by 0.1%, reflecting still-fragile domestic demand.

·        China Export Growth Beats Forecasts

o   China's exports grew by 5.8% y/y in June 2025, up from 4.8% in May and above the 5.0% forecast, as firms rushed shipments ahead of the August tariff deadline. Imports rose by 1.1% y/y, the first increase this year, supported by Beijing’s stimulus efforts to boost domestic demand and reverse the prior month’s 3.4% y/y decline.

·        UK GDP Unexpectedly Shrinks for Second Month

o   The UK economy contracted by 0.1% month-on-month in May 2025, following a 0.3% decline in April and defying expectations of modest growth. Output fell sharply in manufacturing (-1%) and construction (-0.6%), while services rose by 0.1% thanks to strong IT activity. The back-to-back declines raise the risk of a Q2 contraction, despite growth of 0.5% over the three months to May.

·        Canada Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Drops

o   Canada’s unemployment rate declined to 6.9% in June 2025 from 7.0% in May, defying expectations of a rise to 7.1% and marking the first improvement since January. Employment surged by 83,100, driven by part-time gains in wholesale and retail trade. The number of unemployed fell by over 22,000, while the participation rate edged up to 65.4%.

• GHANA

·        IMF Warns Ghana Against Artificial Cedi Stability

o   The IMF has cautioned Ghana against relying on foreign exchange interventions to maintain Cedi stability, warning that such measures may mask deeper economic vulnerabilities. The Fund urged a focus on structural reforms and sustainable reserve buildup, stressing that lasting currency stability must reflect strong fundamentals rather than temporary support from multilateral inflows.

·        Finance Minister to Present Mid-Year Budget on July 24

o   Ghana’s Finance Minister is scheduled to present the 2025 Mid-Year Budget Review to Parliament on Wednesday, July 24. The presentation will provide updates on the Government’s fiscal performance for the first half of the year, outline revised macroeconomic targets, and introduce policy adjustments to align with current economic conditions and ongoing IMF-backed reforms. 

• AFRICA

·        South Africa Manufacturing Logs Surprise Rebound in May

o   South Africa’s manufacturing output rose by 0.5% y/y in May 2025, rebounding from a 6.4% drop in April and ending a six-month decline streak. The uptick, beating forecasts of a 1.5% fall, was driven by gains in metals, glass, wood products, and textiles. On a monthly basis, output rose by 2%, though quarterly production remains slightly negative.

·        Egypt Holds Key Rate Steady at 24% Amid Easing Inflation

o   The Central Bank of Egypt left its policy rate unchanged at 24% in July 2025, as expected, to maintain its disinflation path amid global uncertainties. With GDP growth nearing 4.8% and headline inflation falling to 15.3% in Q2, policymakers opted for caution while monitoring inflation expectations and fiscal reforms.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week’s edition: 

·                  Global Equities Post Mixed Results Amid Trade Uncertainty from the Trump Administration and Key Partners 

·                  Gold Retreats Slightly by 0.17% as Trade Uncertainty Persists 

·                  Ghana’s Treasury Auction Massively Oversubscribed by 95.82%, Though Yields Continue to Decline  

·                  Ghana Stock Exchange Pulls Back on Losses in MTNGH and Financials; GSE-CI Eases to 30.65% YTD, GSE-FSI Slows to 43.55% YTD 

 Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - July 21, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE    

·                  U.S. Retail Sales Rebound Stronger Than Expected 

o        U.S. retail sales rose by 0.6% month-over-month in June 2025, beating forecasts of a 0.1% gain and snapping two months of declines. Growth was led by autos, clothing, building materials, and restaurants. Core retail sales, used in GDP calculations, climbed by 0.5%, also above expectations. However, sales at furniture and electronics stores dipped slightly, and gasoline station sales were flat. 

·                  Eurozone Inflation Holds at ECB Target in June 

o        Euro area inflation was confirmed at 2.0% in June 2025, aligning with the ECB’s target and slightly up from 1.9% in May. Services inflation rose to 3.3%, while energy prices declined at a slower pace. Inflation eased for industrial goods and food. Core inflation remained steady at 2.3%, the lowest since January 2022. 

·                  China Holds Loan Prime Rate (LPR) Steady for Second Month 

o        The People’s Bank of China kept its one-year LPR at 3.0% and five-year LPR at 3.5% in July, matching forecasts. The pause comes as growth slows under US tariffs, weak domestic demand, and a property downturn. Q2 GDP rose by 5.2%, slightly above expectations, while deflation persisted. Bank lending surged, signaling ongoing support despite unchanged policy rates. 

·                  U.S. Imposes 93.5% Tariff on Chinese Graphite Imports 

o        The U.S. Commerce Department has imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties of 93.5% on Chinese graphite imports, intensifying trade tensions over critical battery materials. This decision follows a petition by the American Active Anode Material Producers, which accused Chinese firms of unfair pricing. Combined with existing tariffs, the effective rate now totals 160%. The move threatens to further disrupt the global EV supply chain amid China’s own export controls. Shares of North American graphite producers rose, while battery suppliers slipped. A final ruling is expected by December 5. 

·                  Eurozone Current Account Surplus Shrinks Sharply 

o        The Eurozone’s current account surplus narrowed to €1 billion in May 2025, down from €7.3 billion a year earlier. This was due to a lower services surplus and wider deficits in primary and secondary income. However, the goods surplus rose. Seasonally adjusted, the surplus increased to €32.3 billion from April’s €18.6 billion.

 GHANA  

·                  Bank of Ghana Moves Interest-Rate Announcement Back to July 30 

o        The Bank of Ghana has rescheduled its monetary policy announcement to July 30, reversing an earlier decision to release the outcome on Friday after a two-day emergency meeting. In a brief statement, the central bank noted that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) reviewed key developments, including a sharp drop in inflation, robust economic growth, and rising international reserves. Despite this, the Bank decided to wait until its regularly scheduled meeting later in the month before making any rate decision public. The abrupt changes have raised concerns among investors, who rely on the central bank for consistency in uncertain times.

AFRICA  

·                  Nigeria’s Inflation Eases for Third Consecutive Month to 22.22% in June 

o        Nigeria’s headline inflation fell for the third straight month to 22.22% in June 2025 from 22.97% in May, per NBS data. However, food inflation rose to 21.97%, driven by higher prices of key items like tomatoes, meat, and pepper. While overall inflation is easing, the persistent rise in food costs continues to pressure household spending and consumer welfare. 

·                  Ivory Coast Issues Debut ESG-Certified Samurai Bond 

o        Ivory Coast has raised ¥50 billion (approx. $310 million) through its first Samurai bond, becoming the first sub-Saharan African nation to enter Japan’s yen-denominated debt market. The 10-year, ESG-certified bond carries a 2.3% coupon and is guaranteed by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC). This move aligns with the country's efforts to diversify funding sources and reduce reliance on volatile dollar-denominated markets. 

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        US Equities Extend Gains as Nonfarm Payrolls Beat Estimates

·        Gold Rises 1.29% Amid U.S. Fiscal Deficit Concerns and Lingering Tariff Uncertainty

·        Ghana’s Treasury Accepts All Bids but Records 11.57% Undersubscription, Sixth Straight Week of Shortfall

·        The Ghana Stock Exchange Rally Continues, Led by Financials and TOTAL; GSE-CI Climbs to 29.84% YTD, GSE-FSI Soars to 43.03% YTD. 

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - July 7, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        US Nonfarm Payrolls Beat Forecasts in June

o   US nonfarm payrolls rose by 147K in June 2025, surpassing forecasts of 110K and matching the 12-month average. Government hiring led gains (+73K), mostly in state and local education. Health care added 39K jobs, while social assistance rose 19K. However, federal employment declined (-7K). Despite current resilience, hiring may slow amid trade and immigration uncertainty. The stronger-than-expected job growth could reduce the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the near term.

·        Trump’s Tariffs Set to Take Effect August 1

o   US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that new tariffs will begin on August 1, as President Trump finalizes trade deals and sets rates. Trump noted that some agreements are already in place, while official notices will be sent to other nations. If no deal is reached, tariffs could revert to April 2 levels, ending a 90-day reprieve.

·        Eurozone Inflation Hits ECB Target in June

o   Eurozone inflation rose to 2.0% in June 2025, up slightly from 1.9% in May, matching the ECB’s target. Services inflation quickened to 3.3%, while energy price declines eased. Inflation for food and industrial goods moderated. Core inflation stayed at 2.3%, its lowest since January 2022. Germany’s inflation slowed, while France and Spain posted slight increases.

·        Eurozone Unemployment Ticks Up from Record Low

o   The Euro Area unemployment rate edged up to 6.3% in May 2025 from April’s record low of 6.2%, slightly above expectations. The number of unemployed rose by 54,000 to 10.83 million. Youth unemployment held at 14.4%. Germany and the Netherlands posted the lowest rates, while Spain, France, and Italy reported higher figures.

·        China Composite PMI Rebounds to 3-Month High

o   China’s Caixin Composite PMI rose to 51.3 in June 2025 from 49.6 in May, the strongest since March. A pickup in manufacturing offset slowing services growth. While new business rebounded, exports remained weak and job cuts continued. Firms reduced selling prices sharply, the biggest drop in over two years, to spur demand, even as input costs slightly declined.

•  GHANA

·        Ghana Inflation Falls to 13.7% in June, Lowest Since 2021

o   Ghana’s annual inflation rate dropped to 13.7% in June 2025, its lowest in three and half years, driven by continued Cedi appreciation. Food inflation slowed sharply to 16.3% from 22.8% in May, while non-food inflation eased to 11.4% from 14.4%. This marks the sixth consecutive month of disinflation, reinforcing expectations of further price stability. The sustained downward trend in inflation strengthens the case for a potential policy rate cut at the Bank of Ghana’s next MPC meeting.

·        Ghana Pays US$1.17bn in Eurobond Coupons, Fully Meets 2025 Obligations

o   Ghana has completed all Eurobond coupon payments for 2025, disbursing US$1.17 billion since the October 2024 debt restructuring deal. The latest US$349.52 million payment on July 3 confirms the country’s commitment to prudent debt management. Officials expect this discipline to boost investor confidence and credit ratings, ahead of higher external obligations in 2026. 

• AFRICA

·        Kenya GDP Grows 4.9% in Q1 2025 on Strong Agricultural Output

o   Kenya’s economy expanded by 4.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, following a 5.1% increase in Q4 2024. Growth was driven by a 6% rise in agriculture, supported by favorable rains and government subsidies. Key sectors like ICT, trade, real estate, and finance also posted solid gains. Seasonally adjusted quarterly growth slowed to 0.8%, the weakest in a year.

·        South Africa’s Forex Reserves Hit Record $68.4bn in June

o   South Africa’s gross foreign exchange reserves rose to a record $68.42 billion in June 2025, up from $68.12 billion in May. The increase was driven by higher SDR holdings and foreign currency reserves, despite a slight dip in gold reserves. The central bank’s forward position also edged up to $0.532 billion, reflecting stronger external buffers.

·        South Africa, Nigeria Propel Intra-Africa Trade to $220.3bn in 2024

o   Intra-Africa trade rose by 12.4% to $220.3 billion in 2024, rebounding from a 5.9% decline in 2023, per Afreximbank's African Trade Report. South Africa led with $42.14 billion, while Nigeria’s trade surged to $18.43 billion, driven by refined oil and manufactured goods exports. The Dangote Refinery played a key role in Nigeria’s export momentum.

        Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics