In this week's edition:

·        Global Equities Advance Across the Board on Mixed Investor Readings of Central Bank Policy Directions

·        Gold Hits a New High on Expectations of Looser U.S. Policy and Heightened Geopolitical Uncertainty

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Records 24.59% Undersubscription, with Mixed Yields Movement Across the Curve

·        Ghana Stock Exchange Ends Three-Week Losing Streak; GSE-CI Inches Up to 48.70% YTD, While GSE-FSI Climbs to 46.10% YTD 

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - September 15, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        U.S. Producer Prices Post Surprise Decline in August

o   U.S. producer prices slipped 0.1% in August 2025, the first monthly drop in four months, defying forecasts for a 0.3% rise. The decline was driven by a 0.2% fall in service costs, led by a 3.9% drop in machinery and vehicle wholesaling margins, while goods prices edged up 0.1% on higher tobacco, beef, poultry, and electricity costs. On an annual basis, PPI rose 2.6%, cooling from July’s 3.1% pace and below expectations of 3.3%, while core PPI also eased to 2.8%.

·        U.S. Pushes G7 Tariffs on India, China Over Russian Oil

o   The U.S. is pressing G7 nations to impose steep tariffs—potentially 50–100%—on India and China for buying Russian oil, the Financial Times reports. G7 finance ministers are set to discuss the proposal in a video call as President Trump steps up efforts to push Moscow toward peace talks. While Washington has already raised tariffs on Indian imports and briefly hiked Chinese levies earlier this year, EU officials warn such measures could strain ties with New Delhi and provoke Beijing. Brussels favors alternatives like tighter sanctions and earlier deadlines to phase out Russian energy, though opposition from Hungary and Slovakia persists.

·        ECB Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Seen Near Target

o   The European Central Bank (ECB) left key interest rates unchanged in September 2025, with the deposit facility at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, as expected. Staff projections see headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025 before easing to 1.7% in 2026 and edging back to 1.9% in 2027. Growth is forecast at 1.2% in 2025, slowing to 1.0% in 2026, and rebounding to 1.3% in 2027. President Lagarde noted risks are more balanced, signaling the disinflationary process has ended.

·        Euro Area Trade Surplus Narrows to €12.4B in July

o   The Eurozone’s trade surplus narrowed to €12.4B in July 2025 from €18.5B a year earlier, though slightly above forecasts of €11.7B. Imports rose 3.1% to €239.1B, led by food, chemicals, and machinery, while exports edged up 0.4% to €251.5B, supported by food and vehicles. The surplus with the US shrank sharply as higher imports and weaker exports reflected ongoing tariff uncertainty.

·        UK GDP Flat in July, Matching Forecasts

o   The UK economy stalled in July 2025 after a 0.4% expansion in June, in line with expectations. Modest gains in services (+0.1%) and construction (+0.2%) were offset by a 0.9% drop in production, led by steep declines in electronics and pharmaceuticals. On a three-month basis, GDP rose by 0.2%, while annual growth held steady at 1.4%, just below forecasts of 1.5%.

·        China Growth Falters as Retail and Jobs Weaken

o   China’s economy lost momentum in August 2025, with industrial production slowing to 5.2% year-on-year—the weakest in a year—while retail sales rose just 3.4%, an eight-month low. The unemployment rate climbed to 5.3%, and property investment kept shrinking under tighter rules, underscoring persistent weakness in the housing sector. Officials pointed to record heat, prolonged rains, and global headwinds as drags, while urging manufacturers to seek overseas markets amid U.S. trade tensions. Beijing pledged measures to steady jobs, businesses, and markets as firms struggle with aggressive price cuts.

• GHANA

·        Ghana GDP Growth Holds at 6.3%, Near 1-Year High

o   Ghana’s economy expanded by 6.3% year-on-year in Q2 2025, unchanged from Q1 revised figures and the fastest pace since Q3 2024. Services drove growth with a 9.9% rise, led by a 21.3% surge in ICT and strong gains in education (+16.6%), health (+14.6%), and finance (+9.7%). Agriculture grew 5.2% on livestock output, while industry rose 2.3%, though mining and quarrying contracted 1.8% as oil and gas slumped 22.5%. On the demand side, household spending (+12.2%), investment (+17.1%), and net exports (+691.6%) provided strong support, offsetting a small dip in government consumption. Quarter-on-quarter, GDP rose 1.4% after a revised 1.6% gain in Q1.

·        World Bank Disburses $360mn to Ghana in Support of IMF-Backed Reforms

o   Ghana has received $360mn from the World Bank to reinforce fiscal stability and reforms under its $3bn IMF program, Citi News reported. The disbursement, approved June 27, brings World Bank support to $660mn following a $300mn release in 2023. Provided through the IDA’s Resilient Recovery Development Policy Operation (DPO2), the funds aim to strengthen revenue mobilisation, energy governance, and social spending. Finance Minister Ato Forson said the package reflects steady progress in restoring confidence and building a more resilient economy.

• AFRICA

·        Egypt Inflation Rate at Near 3-1/2-Year Low

o   Egypt’s annual urban inflation eased to 12.0% in August 2025, down from 13.9% in July and below market forecasts of 12.7%, marking the lowest level since March 2022. The slowdown was largely due to softer food inflation, which fell to a four-year low of 2.1%, alongside easing transport (26.8% vs 41.5%), restaurants and hotels (13.8% vs 15.2%), and miscellaneous goods (12.0% vs 13.6%). In contrast, housing (16.2% vs 15.9%) and furnishings (13.4% vs 12.9%) recorded slightly faster price increases, while communications held steady at 12.1%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.4%, rebounding from July’s 0.5% drop and ending a two-month streak of declines.

·        South Africa Mining Output Growth Tops Forecasts

o   South Africa’s mining production rose by 4.4% year-on-year in July 2025, beating market expectations of 3.2% and accelerating from an upwardly revised 2.5% in June. It marked the third straight month of growth and the strongest since September 2024, driven by sharp gains in iron ore (+12.2%), Platinum Group Metals, PGMs (+6.2%), and other metallic minerals (+45.8%). On a seasonally adjusted basis, mining output climbed 1% from June and advanced 5.8% in the three months to July compared with the previous three months.

           Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week’s edition: 

·                  Global Equity Markets Log Second Straight Week of Gains on Sustained Investor Optimism 

·                  Gold Falls by 1.81%, Pressured by Stronger U.S. Inflation Data That Diminished Rate-Cut Expectations 

·                  Ghana’s Treasury Auction Posts Second Consecutive Undersubscription of 35.68% as Yields Continue to Decline 

·                  Ghana Stock Exchange Extends Rally; GSE-CI Rises to 51.63% YTD, While GSE-FSI Rebounds to 43.49% YTD   

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Markets Update - August 18, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE    

·                  US Inflation Holds at 2.7%, Core Rises 

·                  US annual inflation stayed at 2.7% in July, below forecasts of 2.8%. Energy costs fell further, led by gasoline (-9.5%) and fuel oil (-2.9%), while shelter inflation eased slightly to 3.7%. In contrast, prices for used cars, trucks, and transportation services picked up. Core inflation accelerated to 3.1%, its highest in five months, with monthly core CPI rising 0.3%, the sharpest increase since January. 

·                  US Business Inventories Up 0.2% 

·                  US business inventories rose 0.2% in June 2025, in line with expectations, after being flat in May. The increase was driven by a rebound in wholesale inventories (+0.1%), stronger manufacturing inventories (+0.2%), and steady retail inventories (+0.2%). Year-over-year, total inventories were 1.6% higher. 

·                  Euro Area GDP Expands by 1.4% in Q2 

·                  The Euro Area economy expanded by 1.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025, easing slightly from 1.5% in Q1 and matching initial estimates. Ireland led with a strong 16.2% growth, while Cyprus (3.3%), Lithuania (3%), and Spain (2.8%) also posted solid gains. Major economies like Germany and Italy grew modestly at 0.4% each. 

·                  Euro Area Trade Surplus Narrows More than Expected 

·                  The Eurozone’s trade surplus narrowed to €7 billion in June 2025 from €20.7 billion a year earlier, below market expectations of €13 billion, as imports rose 6.8% while exports edged up only 0.4%. 

·                  UK GDP Grows by 1.2% in Q2 

·                  The UK economy expanded by 1.2% year-on-year in Q2 2025, slightly below 1.3% in Q1 but above the 1% forecast. Growth was supported by stronger household spending (+1.1%), higher government expenditure (+1.7%), and a rebound in exports (+3%). However, investment weakened sharply, with gross fixed capital formation slowing to 1.3% and business investment nearly flat at 0.1%.

GHANA  

·                  Weak Jobs Creation and Labor Market Concerns 

·                  Despite economic expansion, job creation lags far behind workforce growth. Only 250,000 jobs were created for 2.7 million new workers in the past decade. The World Bank highlights mismatches between rising education levels and available high-quality jobs, as well as weak labor demand in productive sectors, raising policy concerns for Ghana’s long-term growth. 

AFRICA  

·                  Kenya Delivers 7th Straight Rate Cut 

·                  The Central Bank of Kenya lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 9.50% in August 2025, marking a seventh straight cut and 350 bps of easing since August 2024. Inflation quickened to 4.1% in July from 3.8% but stayed within the 2.5%–7.5% target band. Governor Kamau Thugge said the move aims to boost private-sector credit and growth while keeping inflation expectations anchored and the exchange rate stable. 

·                  Nigeria Inflation Rate Moderates for 4th Month 

·                  Nigeria’s annual inflation rate slowed for the fourth month to 21.88% in July 2025, down from 22.22% in June, marking its lowest since January 2023. The moderation was supported by currency stability and lower gasoline prices. However, food inflation accelerated for a second month to 22.74% from 21.97%, while core inflation dropped to 21.30% from 22.76%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 1.99% in July, up from 1.68% in June. 

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        U.S. Equity Markets End Steady, Recovering Early-Week Losses After Fed Chair Powell’s Remarks on Friday.

·        Gold Rises by 1.07% on Signs of a Dovish Pivot from the Federal Reserve.

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Records Third Consecutive Undersubscription at 10.45%, With Yields Steady Overall but Edging Up at the Short End of the Curve.

·        Ghana Stock Exchange Sees Marginal Retreat; GSE-CI Slips to 50.28% YTD, GSE-FSI Eases to 43.21% YTD.

• Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - August 25, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        Powell Signals Possible Fed Rate Cut in September

o   Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the Fed may cut rates in September, citing mounting labor market risks despite persistent inflation. July’s weaker hiring data heightened concerns about potential layoffs, while Trump’s tariffs could sustain price pressures. Powell noted policy remains restrictive but could be eased if risks shift further toward jobs. Markets priced in a 75% chance of a September cut, driving yields lower, stocks higher, and the dollar weaker.

·        US Manufacturing Expands at Fastest Pace Since 2022

o   The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 in August 2025 from 49.8 in July, beating forecasts of 49.5. The reading signaled renewed factory growth after July’s contraction, marking the strongest pace since May 2022. Output rose for a third month, supported by the largest new orders increase since February 2024. Employment rebounded sharply, posting the biggest payroll gain since March 2022, while inventories also surged.

·        Eurozone Inflation Steady at 2% in July

o   Eurozone annual inflation held at 2% in July 2025, matching June figure and the ECB’s target. The data were also in line with flash estimates. Services inflation eased to 3.2%, a three-year low, offset by faster gains in food, alcohol, tobacco (3.3%) and non-energy goods (0.8%). Energy prices remained in deflation at -2.4%. Core inflation stayed at 2.3%, the lowest since January 2022, signaling stable underlying price pressures.

·        UK Inflation Rises to 3.8% in July

o   The UK’s annual inflation rate climbed to 3.8% in July 2025, the highest level since January 2024, up from 3.6% and above forecasts of 3.7%. Transport was the main driver, with airfares surging by 30.2% on summer holiday demand, alongside higher fuel and sea fares. Prices also rose for restaurants, hotels, and food. Housing and household services eased to 6.2%, partly offsetting gains. Monthly CPI rose by 0.1%, while core inflation edged up to 3.8%.

·        Eurozone Private Sector Growth Hits 15-Month High

o   The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI rose to 51.1 in August 2025 from 50.9, beating forecasts of 50.7 and marking the strongest expansion since May 2024. Growth was underpinned by services (50.7) and the first manufacturing rebound in over three years (50.5). New orders rose for the first time in 14 months, boosting hiring. Still, business confidence slipped on US tariff risks and regional headwinds as input costs and output prices climbed.

·        China’s FDI Falls 13.4%, High-Tech Sectors Shine

o   China’s FDI fell by 13.4% year-on-year to CNY 467.34 billion in Jan–Jul 2025, reflecting global uncertainty. Services led with CNY 336.25 billion, while manufacturing drew CNY 121.04 billion. High-tech investment surged, with e-commerce up 146.8%, aerospace 42.2%, and pharma 37.4%. Inflows from ASEAN countries rose by 1.1%. Similarly, inflows from Switzerland, Japan, and the UK posted strong gains. 

• GHANA

·        Outstanding Corporate Debt Shrinks by 95% Year-to-July

o   Outstanding corporate debt securities on the Ghana Fixed Income Market (GFIM) plunged by 95% to GH¢44.2m by July 2025, from GH¢919.89m a year earlier, per the GSE Fund Managers Report. The drop stemmed from reduced issuance and retirements, with balances from issuers like Izwe (GH¢75m vs GH¢100m), Cocobod (GH¢7.33bn vs GH¢7.93bn), ESLA and Daakye Trust (all bonds from both issuers have been retired). Conversely, Kasapreko more than doubled its debt to GH¢351.18m, while Federated Commodities debuted with GH¢72.55m. As a result, government instruments continue to dominatd, pushing total GFIM volumes up by 52% to GH¢129.66bn.

·        BoG Halts Unbacked USD Payouts to Corporates

o   The Bank of Ghana has ordered banks to stop foreign currency cash payouts to large corporates unless backed by prior deposits, in a bid to protect reserves and stabilize the Cedi. The directive targets bulk oil distributors, mining firms, and others withdrawing unbacked dollars. Despite a current account surplus of US$3.4bn, reserves of US$11.1bn, and a 40.7% Cedi rally in H1 2025, the BoG said tighter oversight is needed. Non-compliance by banks will attract sanctions. 

• AFRICA

·        South Africa Inflation Edges Higher to 3.5% in July

o   South Africa’s annual inflation rate climbed to 3.5% in July 2025, a ten-month high and matching forecasts, marking a second straight increase. Price pressures were driven by food & non-alcoholic beverages (5.7% vs 5.1%), alcohol & tobacco (4.6% vs 4.4%), and restaurants & hotels (3% vs 2%). Transport costs fell more slowly (-1.7% vs -3.3%), cushioned by smaller fuel declines (-5.5% vs -11.2%). Core inflation edged up to 3.0%, while monthly inflation surged 0.9%.

·        S&P Upgrades Kenya to B on Improved Liquidity

o   S&P has upgraded Kenya’s long-term sovereign credit rating to B from B- with a stable outlook, citing eased external liquidity pressures from robust exports, remittances, and a $900m Eurobond buyback earlier this year. The liability management operation, alongside lower domestic interest rates, has boosted investor confidence and supported credit growth. S&P expects strong medium-term growth to offset high borrowing costs. The upgrade reverses last year’s downgrade tied to debt risks and stalled tax reforms.

 Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week’s edition: 

·                  Global Equity Markets End Higher on Renewed Investor Sentiment 

·                  Gold Rises 1.02%, Nearing Two-Week High After U.S. Imposes Tariffs on Gold Imports 

·                  Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed by 22.13% After Weeks of Oversubscription as Yields Continue to Decline 

·                  Ghana Stock Exchange Rally Persists, Driven by MTNGH — GSE-CI Climbs to 51.10% YTD, While GSE-FSI Slips to 43.18% YTD   

Kindly click to view the full report:  Global Markets Update - August 11, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE    

·                  US Q2 Productivity Rises 2.4%, Beats Forecasts 

·                  US nonfarm labor productivity grew 2.4% in Q2 2025, rebounding from a 1.8% drop in Q1 and above the 2% forecast. Output rose 3.7% while hours worked increased 1.3%. Manufacturing productivity gained 2.1% as output rose 2.3% and hours worked 0.3%. Year-on-year, productivity was up 1.3%. 

·                  Trump to Impose 100% Tariff on Imported Semiconductors 

·                  President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all semiconductor imports, exempting firms committed to US manufacturing. The move, part of a Section 232 national security probe, aims to boost domestic chip production. 

·                  US Inflation Expectations Rise to 3.1% 

·                  US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 3.1% in July 2025 from 3% in June. Five-year expectations climbed to 2.9%, while three-year stayed at 3%. Expectations for gas, medical care, college, and rent eased, food stayed at 5.5%, and home price growth held at 3%. 

·                  BoE Cuts Rates to 2-Year Low 

·                  The Bank of England (BoE) lowered rates by 25 bps to 4%, the lowest since March 2023, in a historic two-round vote split 5–4. Governor Bailey called the move “finely balanced,” citing sticky inflation—seen peaking at 4% in September—and labor market strain. Growth for 2025 was upgraded to 1.25%, with markets eyeing one more cut this year. 

·                  China CPI Holds Flat, Beats Forecasts 

·                  China’s consumer prices were unchanged year-on-year in July 2025, defying forecasts for a 0.1% drop. Non-food prices rose 0.3% on subsidies, while food prices fell 1.6%. Core inflation hit a 17-month high at 0.8%. Monthly CPI rose 0.4%, the fastest since January, partly due to extreme weather.                    

GHANA  

·                  Ghana Inflation Falls to 12.1%, Lowest in Nearly Four Years 

·                  Ghana’s annual inflation eased to 12.1% in July 2025, the lowest since October 2021 and the seventh straight monthly decline. The drop was supported by a strong cedi, buoyed by higher gold and cocoa prices. Food inflation slowed to 15.1% from 16.3% in June, while non-food inflation eased to 9.5% from 11.4%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.7% after falling 1.2% in the previous month.                   

AFRICA  

·                  South Africa’s Forex Reserves Hit Record $69.16 Billion 

·                  South Africa’s gross foreign exchange reserves climbed to a historic high of $69.161 billion in July, up from $68.415 billion in June. The increase was fueled by higher gold reserves ($13.332 billion) and foreign currency reserves ($49.395 billion). However, Special Drawing Rights (SDR) holdings dipped to $6.434 billion. The central bank’s forward position, reflecting unsettled or swap transactions, also rose slightly to $0.535 billion from $0.532 billion in the previous month. 

·                  Egypt Inflation Eases to 13.9%, Lowest in Three Months 

·                  Egypt’s annual urban inflation fell to 13.9% in July 2025 from 14.9% in June, marking its second monthly decline and the lowest level since April. The slowdown was largely driven by easing food prices, which rose just 3.4% — the smallest increase since June 2021 — compared to 6.9% in June. 

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics