In this week's edition:

·        U.S. Equities Broadly Declined as Rising Concerns Over the Prolonged Conflict with Iran Unsettled Investors.

·        Gold Prices Decline by 3.71% W/W, as Bullion Loss Appeal amid Escalating Inflation Concerns and the Potential for Fed Rate Hike.

·        Ghana’s Treasury Records Second Consecutive Oversubscription (27.33%) as Yields Rise Across the Curve.

·        GSE Extends Losing Streak as Financial Stocks Remain Under Pressure; GSE‑CI Dropped 1.70% W/W to 63.28% YTD, While GSE‑FI Slipped 2.93%% W/W to 73.63% YTD. 

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - May 18, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·                  U.S. Manufacturing Output Posts Strongest Gain in 14 Months

·        U.S. manufacturing output rose by 0.6% in April 2026, the largest increase since February 2025 and well above expectations of 0.2%, driven by a 1.2% jump in durable goods production, led by a 3.7% surge in motor vehicles and parts. In contrast, nondurable output edged down by 0.1%, as declines in chemicals and plastics were partly offset by gains in food, printing, and petroleum products. Meanwhile, capacity utilization increased to 75.8% from 75.4%, though it remains 2.4 percentage points below its long‑run average.

• U.S. Export Prices Surge Sharply Above Expectations

·        U.S. export prices rose unexpectedly by 3.3% m/m in April 2026, accelerating from a revised 1.5% increase in March and well above forecasts of 1.1%, marking the strongest gain since March 2022. The rise was driven by a sharp increase in non‑agricultural export prices (3.4% vs 1.6%), supported by higher costs for industrial supplies, capital goods, and consumer goods, which offset declines in automotive exports, while agricultural prices also climbed by 1.6% from 0.6%, the most since October 2024. On an annual basis, export prices jumped by 8.8%, accelerating from a revised 5.4%, the fastest increase since September 2022.

·    Euro Area GDP Growth Confirmed at 0.8% as Momentum Softens

·        Euro area GDP expanded by 0.8% y/y in Q1 2026, in line with earlier estimates, slowing from 1.2% in Q4 and marking the weakest growth since Q2 2024 amid energy‑related pressures linked to the Middle East conflict. Economic activity softened across most member states, including Germany (0.3% vs 0.4%), France (1.1% vs 1.3%), Italy (0.7% vs 0.9%), and the Netherlands (1.2% vs 1.8%), while Ireland contracted sharply (-6.3% vs 3.0%). In contrast, growth showed resilience in several economies, accelerating in Spain (2.7% vs 2.6%), Portugal (2.3% vs 1.9%), and Finland (1.3% vs 0.1%), while Bulgaria held steady at 2.9%.

·    U.K. Trade Deficit Widens to Highest Since 2022

·        The U.K. trade deficit widened sharply to £9.66 billion in March 2026, up from a revised £5.34 billion in February, marking the largest shortfall since January 2022. While exports edged up by 0.2% m/m to £79.13 billion, driven by modest gains in goods and services, imports grew at a faster pace of 5.3% to £88.78 billion, led by increased demand for fuel, machinery, and transport equipment. Growth in exports was supported by stronger shipments to the EU, particularly in fuel and chemicals, while imports from both EU (+2.7%) and non‑EU countries (+7.5%) rose significantly, contributing to the wider deficit.

·    U.K. Economy Posts Strongest Growth Since Q1 2025

·        The U.K. economy expanded by 0.6% q/q in Q1 2026, matching expectations and accelerating from a revised 0.2% in Q4, marking the strongest growth in a year. Growth was driven by a rebound in services output (0.8% vs 0.2%), led by wholesale and retail trade, alongside modest gains in production (0.2%) and construction (0.4%), despite mixed sectoral performance. On the demand side, expansion was supported by stronger investment, household consumption, and government spending, while annual growth came in at 1.1%, above the 0.8% forecast.

·    China Jobless Rate Falls to Three‑Month Low

·        China’s surveyed urban unemployment rate eased to 5.2% in April 2026, down from a more than one‑year high of 5.4% in March, coming in below expectations of 5.3% and marking the lowest level since January 2026. The decline was broad‑based, with unemployment among local workers edging down to 5.3% from 5.4% and the migrant workforce falling to 5.0% from 5.3%, including a drop to 5.0% from 5.7% among those with agricultural registration. Job conditions also improved slightly across major cities (5.2% vs 5.3%), while the average workweek held at 48 hours, with the overall January–April unemployment rate averaging 5.3%.

·    China Industrial Output Growth Slows to Weakest Since 2023

·        China’s industrial production expanded 4.1% y/y in April 2026, slowing from 5.7% in March and falling short of expectations of 5.9%, marking the weakest growth since July 2023 amid economic headwinds linked to the Iran conflict. Growth moderated across mining (3.8% vs 5.7%) and manufacturing (4.0% vs 6.0%), while utilities activity accelerated (5.3% vs 3.5%), with most manufacturing industries still recording gains, led by strong output in computers and communications equipment (15.6%) and automobiles (9.2%). However, non‑metallic mineral products contracted (-6.5%), while industrial output rose 5.6% for January–April and edged up 0.05% month‑on‑month.

• GHANA

·    Ghana Concludes IMF Programme, Shifts to Non‑Financing PCI

·        Ghana has reached a staff‑level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the final review of its $3 billion Extended Credit Facility programme, marking the conclusion of a key intervention that helped the country recover from its most severe economic crisis in decades, subject to IMF Executive Board approval. The government plans to transition to a non‑financing Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) aimed at maintaining a credible fiscal path, strengthening resilience, and advancing structural reforms.

·    Ghana to Launch $1bn Cocoa Bond Programme from July

·        Ghana is set to raise $1 billion through cocoa‑backed bonds starting in July 2026 to finance purchases for the 2026/27 harvest season, according to sources familiar with the plan. The issuance will be structured in three tranches of roughly $330 million each, scheduled for mid‑July, December, and March 2027, with each tranche expected to be fully repaid before the next is issued. The programme forms part of broader efforts to overhaul cocoa sector financing, although officials from both the Finance Ministry and the Ghana Cocoa Board have yet to provide formal comments.

• AFRICA

·    Nigeria Inflation Rises to Five‑Month High in April

·        Nigeria’s annual inflation rate increased to 15.69% in April 2026, up from 15.38% in March, marking a five‑month high amid continued pass‑through from earlier fuel price shocks linked to the Middle East conflict. Food inflation accelerated for a third consecutive month to 16.06%, driven by broad‑based increases in key staples, while pressures also persisted in transport (16.0% vs 16.9%) and restaurants and hotels (27.9% vs 25.2%), although core inflation eased to 15.86% from 16.21%. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 2.13%, slowing from a sharp 4.18% increase in March, indicating a partial moderation in price momentum.

·    South Africa Jobless Rate Climbs to 32.7% in Q1 2026

·        South Africa’s unemployment rate increased to 32.7% in Q1 2026 from 31.4% in the previous quarter, reflecting worsening labor market conditions. The number of unemployed persons rose by 301,000 to 8.14 million, while employment declined by 345,000 to 16.75 million. Labor force participation fell to 59.0%, the lowest level since 2022. Broader measures of labor underutilization also deteriorated, with the expanded unemployment rate rising to 43.7% and the composite underutilization measure reaching 46.3%. The data highlights persistent structural employment challenges and weakening labor market absorption capacity in the economy.

          Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·    U.S. Equities Closed in Record Amid Strong Corporate Earnings and a Pullback in Oil Prices.

·    Gold Prices Fell 2.02% W/W, As Bullion Continues to Lose Appeal Amid Ongoing U.S. vs Iran Peace Talks and Persistent Inflation Concerns.

·    Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed by 11.4%, Marking Eighth Consecutive Shortfall as Yields Show Mixed Movement

·    GSE Edges Higher as Financial Stocks Weigh on Momentum, ADB Saw First Move After a Long Flat Trading; GSE‑CI 1.73% W/W to 72.52% YTD, While GSE‑FI Dropped 0.02% W/W to 90.21% YTD

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - May 4, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·    United States Q1 Growth Rebounds but Misses Expectations

o   The US economy grew at an annualized 2.0% in Q1 2026, up from 0.5% in Q4 but below expectations of 2.3%. Growth was driven by a rebound in government spending (4.4%) and strong private investment (8.7%), with business spending surging on AI-related investments. However, consumer spending slowed to 1.6%, reflecting softer demand. Net trade weighed on growth, as imports (21.4%) outpaced exports (12.9%), offsetting gains from domestic demand and highlighting external sector drag.

·    ECB Holds Rates as Iran War Raises Inflation Risks

o   The European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged at its April meeting, keeping the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility at 2.0%, as policymakers assess the economic impact of the Iran war. Officials highlighted rising upside risks to inflation and increasing downside risks to growth, while noting that long-term inflation expectations remain anchored despite a rise in short-term pressures. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the decision was unanimous, though policymakers debated alternatives, including a potential rate hike, reflecting heightened uncertainty around the outlook.

·    Eurozone Annual GDP Growth Slows to 0.8% in Q1

o   Euro area GDP grew by 0.8% year-on-year in Q1 2026, slowing from 1.3% in the previous quarter and missing expectations of 0.9%, marking the weakest expansion since Q2 2022. The slowdown reflects higher energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict, which weighed on household consumption across major economies. Growth eased in France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, while Spain remained the standout performer, expanding by 2.7%. The data point to weakening momentum in the bloc amid rising external pressures and softer domestic demand.

·    Bank of England Holds Rates as Iran Conflict Clouds Outlook

o   The Bank of England voted 8–1 to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75% in April 2026, with one member supporting a hike to 4% and others signaling openness to further tightening if needed. Policymakers flagged heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, particularly its impact on energy prices. Inflation has risen to 3.3% and is expected to increase further, raising concerns about second-round effects on wages and pricing. However, a softening labour market, weaker growth, and tighter financial conditions are expected to help contain inflationary pressures over time.

·    Eurozone Inflation Surges to 3% on Energy Shock

o   Euro area inflation rose to 3.0% in April 2026, the highest since September 2023, up from 2.6% in March and slightly above expectations. The increase was driven mainly by a 10.9% jump in energy prices, the strongest since early 2023, amid the Middle East conflict. Food and industrial goods inflation also edged higher, while services inflation slowed to 3.0%. Core inflation eased slightly to 2.2%. Inflation accelerated across major economies, including Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, reflecting broad-based price pressures.

·    People's Bank of China to Inject CNY 300 Billion via Reverse Repo

o   The People’s Bank of China will inject CNY 300 billion into the banking system through an outright reverse repo operation on May 6, aiming to maintain ample liquidity and stabilize financial market conditions. The operation will be conducted via interest-rate bidding under a fixed-quantity framework, with a 91-day tenor, signaling continued monetary support to ensure stable funding conditions and reinforce liquidity management in the banking system.

•  GHANA

·    Bank of Ghana Releases Financial Results for Full Year 2025

o   The Bank of Ghana’s 2025 financial statements show a loss of GH¢15.63 billion, driven largely by policy costs aimed at stabilizing the economy. Operational income more than doubled to GH¢22.28 billion, supported by gold-related gains and other income sources. However, this was offset by a sharp rise in operating expenses, particularly open market operations, which reached GH¢16.73 billion. The Bank’s equity position remained negative at GH¢93.82 billion due to the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme and monetary policy actions, despite improved income from reserves, fees, and gold sales.

•  AFRICA

·    South Africa Trade Surplus Narrows on Import Surge

o   South Africa’s trade surplus narrowed to ZAR 31.9 billion in March 2026 from a revised ZAR 35.9 billion in February, as imports grew faster than exports. Imports jumped 18.4% to ZAR 156 billion, led by gains in vehicles, machinery, chemicals, and mineral products. Exports rose 12.1% to ZAR 188 billion, supported by stronger shipments of minerals, chemicals, and transport equipment, though base metals declined 7%. The widening import bill outweighed export growth, reflecting stronger domestic demand and elevated industrial input purchases during the month across key trading categories and supply chains in South Africa.

·    Nigeria Private Sector Growth Strengthens in April

o   Nigeria’s PMI rose to 52.4 in April 2026 from 51.9 in March, signaling continued expansion in private sector activity. Output grew steadily on stronger demand and rising new orders, despite fuel cost pressures linked to Middle East tensions. Employment and purchasing activity increased, while inventories rose at the fastest pace in five months as firms built buffers. Most sectors recorded gains except services. Business sentiment improved, with firms planning expansion through new branches and market entry, though confidence remained constrained by persistent cost inflation and input price pressures across the economy during the period.

         Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

• U.S. Equities Extended Gains as Job Growth Numbers Boosted Investor Confidence.
• Gold Prices Rose 2.19% W/W, As Bullion Gained Appeal as the Potential for the U.S. vs Iran Peace Agreement Eased Inflation Concerns.
• Ghana’s Treasury Records First Oversubscription (39.96%) After Eight Weeks as Demand Rebounds Amid Mixed Yields Movement.
• GSE Declines Sharply as Financial Stocks Drag Market; GSE‑CI Slipped 3.72% W/W to 66.10% YTD, While GSE‑FI Dropped 5.96%% W/W to 78.88% YTD.

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - May 11, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·    U.S. Short‑Term Inflation Expectations Ease Slightly

o   U.S. year‑ahead inflation expectations edged down to 4.5% in May 2026 from a seven‑month high of 4.7% in April, according to preliminary results from the University of Michigan survey. Longer-term inflation expectations also softened, with the five‑year outlook slipping to 3.4% from a six‑month high of 3.5% in the prior month.

·    U.S. Job Growth Expected to Slow in April

o   U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 62,000 in April 2026, down sharply from 178,000 in March, which was the strongest gain since December 2024, pointing to a moderation in hiring momentum. Employment gains are likely to remain concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, with manufacturing posting another modest increase, while government payrolls are expected to decline; the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to rise by 0.3% m/m, slightly faster than March’s 0.2%, lifting annual wage growth to 3.8% from 3.5%, with analysts noting it remains too early for any spillovers from the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict to show up in labour data.

·    Euro Area Services PMI Slips Into Contraction in April

o   Euro area services activity contracted in April 2026, with the S&P Global Services PMI revised slightly higher to 47.6 from 47.4, but down sharply from 50.2 in March, marking the first contraction in nearly a year and the steepest downturn since February 2021. Demand weakened further as new orders fell at the fastest pace since October 2023, employment stagnated for a second straight month, and backlogs declined at the quickest rate since March 2025, while cost pressures intensified to multi‑year highs. Business confidence deteriorated notably, dropping to its lowest level in 42 months.

·    UK Private‑Sector Activity Strengthens Further in April

o   UK private‑sector output gained further momentum in April 2026, with the S&P Global Composite PMI rising to 52.6 from 50.3, revised up from 52.0 and well above expectations of 49.8, signaling renewed traction despite war‑related energy price pressures. Both manufacturing and services expanded at a faster pace, while new orders edged up, though goods producers flagged that some demand reflected client front‑loading amid disruption concerns. Employment fell for a 19th consecutive month, with firms citing higher National Insurance contributions as a key drag.

·    China Exports Hit Record High as US Shipments Rebound

o   China’s exports surged by 14.1% y/y to a record USD 359.44bn in April 2026, far exceeding expectations of 7.9% and accelerating sharply from March’s 2.5%, as firms stockpiled inputs amid fears that the Iran war could further lift costs. Shipments to the US rebounded 11.3% y/y to USD 36.8bn, returning to growth after a 26.5% slump in March despite tariffs, while exports to Southeast Asia and Europe rose strongly and Japan posted a 4% gain. For January–April, total exports were still up 14.5% y/y to USD 1.34tn, although sales to the US remained 10.2% lower over the period.

·    China’s Inflation Surpasses Forecasts on Rising Transport Costs

o   China’s annual inflation edged up to 1.2% in April 2026 from 1.0%, beating expectations of 0.8% as non-food prices accelerated. Transport costs surged by 4.6% amid elevated energy prices and supply chain disruptions linked to Middle East tensions. Prices also rose for healthcare, education, and clothing, while housing costs remained in decline. Food prices fell by 1.6%, driven by weaker pork and fresh produce prices. Core inflation ticked up to 1.2%, while monthly CPI rebounded 0.3%, defying expectations of a decline.

• GHANA

·    Fitch Upgrades Ghana to ‘B’; Outlook Positive on Strong Macro Recovery

o   Fitch Ratings upgraded Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-’, with a Positive Outlook, citing improving macroeconomic fundamentals. The upgrade reflects a sharp decline in debt-to-GDP, supported by fiscal consolidation, strong growth, and Cedi appreciation. Public debt is projected to fall to 46% of GDP by 2027, while international reserves are expected to strengthen to 4.8 months of import cover. Strong current account surpluses, driven by gold exports, continue to support external stability. Fitch expects sustained primary fiscal surpluses and easing inflation, although interest costs remain elevated. Growth is projected to average 5% through 2027, underpinned by mining and improved domestic demand.

·    Ghana Inflation Picks Up in April on Higher Fuel Costs

o   Ghana’s annual inflation rate edged up to 3.4% in April 2026, from 3.2% in March, as non‑food inflation accelerated to 4.2% from 3.9%, largely driven by rising fuel prices, while food and non‑alcoholic beverage inflation eased slightly to 2.2% from 2.3%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI jumped 1.0%, the strongest increase since February 2025, accelerating sharply from a 0.1% rise in the previous month.

• AFRICA

·    Egypt Inflation Eases Further in April Despite Energy Pressures

o   Egypt’s annual urban inflation slowed to 14.9% in April 2026, down from a ten‑month high of 15.2% in March, as price pressures eased in health (9.3% vs 17.0%) and restaurants and hotels (12.0% vs 12.8%), even amid spillovers from the Iran conflict. Transport inflation remained elevated at 29.2%, though sharply lower than 39.4%, while housing and utilities accelerated to 38.5% from 35.3% on higher electricity costs; meanwhile, food and beverages rose 6.7%, the fastest in ten months. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 1.1%, slowing from 3.2% in March, helped by softer food price momentum.

·    South Africa Forex Reserves Hit Four-Month Low

o   South Africa’s gross foreign exchange reserves declined to $77.09 billion in April 2026 from $77.76 billion in March, the lowest since December 2025. The drop was driven by valuation effects and external financing flows, including a $235.8 million loan from the French Development Agency. Foreign exchange reserves fell to $51.7 billion, while gold holdings rose slightly to $18.7 billion amid higher prices. SDR holdings edged up to $6.7 billion, and the forward position remained steady at $0.59 billion. Despite the monthly dip, reserves remain above April 2025 levels of $67.59 billion overall.

·    South Africa Private‑Sector Growth Strengthens to Multi‑Year High

o   South Africa’s private‑sector activity improved further in April 2026, with the S&P Global PMI rising to 51.6 from 50.8, marking the strongest expansion since August 2022. Output and new orders accelerated sharply, supported by precautionary stock‑building amid Middle East‑related uncertainty, while employment growth climbed to its highest level since September 2022, though supplier delivery times deteriorated to a one‑and‑a‑half‑year low due to supply chain disruptions. Cost pressures intensified, with input inflation hitting a 30‑month high and output prices rising at the fastest pace since August 2024, keeping firms cautious about the sustainability of recent gains.

               Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·    U.S. Equities Gained Last Week, Amid Lower Geopolitical Tensions.

·    Gold Advanced by 1.56% w/w, Diverging from Oil Prices, Which Declined Following U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Announcement.

·    Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed for Fifth Consecutive Week as Yields Continue to Climb Across the Curve.

·    GSE Recovers After Sharp Sell‑Off; GSE‑CI Edges Up By 0.83% w/w to 49.93% YTD, With GSE‑FI Advancing By 0.67% w/w to 70.99% YTD.

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - April 13, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·    U.S. Core Inflation Edges Higher but Undershoots Forecasts

o   Core inflation in the United States, which excludes food and energy prices, increased to 2.6% year-on-year in March 2026 from 2.5% in the prior two months, coming in slightly below market expectations of 2.7%. Price pressures remained elevated across service categories excluding energy, with services inflation at 3%, driven by shelter costs (3%), transportation services (4.1%), and medical care services (3.7%). Meanwhile, inflation for goods excluding food and energy stood at 2.6%, as higher apparel prices (3.4%) more than offset falling prices for used cars and trucks (-3.2%).

·    U.S. Q4 Growth Cut Again on Weaker Investment and Spending

o   U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 was revised lower to an annualized 0.5%, down from 0.7% in the second estimate and 1.4% in the advance reading, largely reflecting a sharper downgrade to investment. Consumer spending decelerated more than previously expected, rising by 1.9% versus 2.0% earlier, as both goods consumption (0.3%) and services spending (2.7%) softened. On the external side, exports dropped by 3.2%, close to the prior estimate of a 3.3% decline and the steepest fall since Q2 2023, while imports fell slightly less than initially reported (-1.0% vs -1.1%). Government spending and investment contracted notably (-5.6% vs -5.8%), subtracting nearly one percentage point from growth due to the government shutdown.

·    Euro Area Producer Prices Record Sharpest Monthly Drop in Nearly a Year

o   Producer prices across the euro area fell by 0.7% month-on-month in February 2026, marking the steepest decline since April 2025, after rising by 0.8% in January and in line with market expectations. The drop was driven mainly by energy prices, which declined by 2.4% following a 1.3% increase, while prices for non-durable consumer goods slipped by 0.2%, unchanged from the previous month. Price growth also eased for intermediate goods (0.3% vs 1.0%), capital goods (0.3% vs 0.6%), and durable consumer goods (0.2% vs 0.8%). At the country level, producer prices fell most sharply in Spain (-3.1%) and Ireland (-2.6%). Germany saw a modest decline of 0.5%, while prices in France decreased by 0.2%. On an annual basis, producer prices were down by 3%, the largest year-on-year drop since October 2024, following declines of 2% in each of the prior two months and matching forecasts.

·    China Inflation Cools More Than Expected in March

o   China’s annual inflation rate slowed to 1.0% in March 2026, down from February’s more than three-year high of 1.3% and below market expectations of 1.2%. The moderation was largely driven by food prices, which rose at a much slower pace (0.3% versus 1.7% previously), reflecting sharp decelerations in fresh vegetable and fruit prices alongside a steeper decline in pork prices. Non-food inflation was broadly stable at 1.2%, only slightly lower than February’s 1.3%, with continued price increases in clothing (1.6%), healthcare (1.9%), and education (1.1%). Transport costs rebounded strongly (0.9% vs -0.7%), while housing costs continued to fall (-0.2%). Core inflation, excluding food and energy, eased to 1.1% year-on-year from 1.8% in February, which had marked the strongest increase since March 2019.

• GHANA

·    Moody’s Revises Ghana Outlook to Positive, Affirms Caa1 Ratings

o   Moody’s Ratings has revised Ghana’s outlook to positive from stable while affirming the country’s long-term foreign and local currency debt ratings at Caa1. The outlook upgrade reflects a growing likelihood of sustained improvement in domestic financing conditions, which is expected to support better debt affordability and strengthen government liquidity over time. Separately, S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Ghana’s sovereign rating at B-. 

• AFRICA

·    Egypt Inflation Jumps to 10‑Month High Following Fuel Price Increases

o   Egypt’s annual urban inflation jumped to a 10‑month high of 15.2% in March 2026 from 13.4% in February, well above expectations, following higher global oil prices and a 14%–17% increase in domestic fuel prices earlier in the month. Price pressures intensified across most sectors, led by transport, housing and utilities, food, and consumer services, while inflation eased slightly in health and recreation and remained stable in communications. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 3.2%, the fastest increase since February 2024 (11.3%).

·    Kenya Pauses Easing Cycle After Extended Rate Cuts

o   The Central Bank of Kenya kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.75% on April 8, 2026, halting an easing cycle that saw ten consecutive cuts since August 2024, totalling 425 basis points. Policymakers said the current stance remains suitable to anchor inflation expectations and support exchange rate stability, while highlighting upside risks from higher global oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, which Governor Kamau Thugge noted has disrupted supply chains and raised energy costs. Kenya’s annual inflation edged up to 4.4% in March from 4.3% in February but remains below the 5% midpoint of the central bank’s target range and is expected to stay within it in the near term, while the growth outlook was revised down slightly to 5.3% from 5.5% due to emerging external risks.

·    South Africa’s Forex Reserves Decline in March

o   South Africa’s gross foreign exchange reserves fell to $77.76 billion in March 2026 from a record high of $81.01 billion in February. The decline reflected a lower US dollar gold price, valuation effects from currency and asset price movements, and foreign exchange payments made on behalf of the government. Gold reserves dropped to $18.50 billion from $20.93 billion, SDR holdings edged down to $6.59 billion, and foreign exchange reserves declined to $52.67 billion, while the central bank’s forward position rose slightly to $0.59 billion. Despite the monthly drop, reserves remained well above their level of $67.45 billion recorded in March 2025.

         Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics