In this week's edition:

·    U.S. Equities Closed in Record Amid Strong Corporate Earnings and a Pullback in Oil Prices.

·    Gold Prices Fell 2.02% W/W, As Bullion Continues to Lose Appeal Amid Ongoing U.S. vs Iran Peace Talks and Persistent Inflation Concerns.

·    Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed by 11.4%, Marking Eighth Consecutive Shortfall as Yields Show Mixed Movement

·    GSE Edges Higher as Financial Stocks Weigh on Momentum, ADB Saw First Move After a Long Flat Trading; GSE‑CI 1.73% W/W to 72.52% YTD, While GSE‑FI Dropped 0.02% W/W to 90.21% YTD

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - May 4, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·    United States Q1 Growth Rebounds but Misses Expectations

o   The US economy grew at an annualized 2.0% in Q1 2026, up from 0.5% in Q4 but below expectations of 2.3%. Growth was driven by a rebound in government spending (4.4%) and strong private investment (8.7%), with business spending surging on AI-related investments. However, consumer spending slowed to 1.6%, reflecting softer demand. Net trade weighed on growth, as imports (21.4%) outpaced exports (12.9%), offsetting gains from domestic demand and highlighting external sector drag.

·    ECB Holds Rates as Iran War Raises Inflation Risks

o   The European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged at its April meeting, keeping the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility at 2.0%, as policymakers assess the economic impact of the Iran war. Officials highlighted rising upside risks to inflation and increasing downside risks to growth, while noting that long-term inflation expectations remain anchored despite a rise in short-term pressures. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the decision was unanimous, though policymakers debated alternatives, including a potential rate hike, reflecting heightened uncertainty around the outlook.

·    Eurozone Annual GDP Growth Slows to 0.8% in Q1

o   Euro area GDP grew by 0.8% year-on-year in Q1 2026, slowing from 1.3% in the previous quarter and missing expectations of 0.9%, marking the weakest expansion since Q2 2022. The slowdown reflects higher energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict, which weighed on household consumption across major economies. Growth eased in France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, while Spain remained the standout performer, expanding by 2.7%. The data point to weakening momentum in the bloc amid rising external pressures and softer domestic demand.

·    Bank of England Holds Rates as Iran Conflict Clouds Outlook

o   The Bank of England voted 8–1 to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75% in April 2026, with one member supporting a hike to 4% and others signaling openness to further tightening if needed. Policymakers flagged heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, particularly its impact on energy prices. Inflation has risen to 3.3% and is expected to increase further, raising concerns about second-round effects on wages and pricing. However, a softening labour market, weaker growth, and tighter financial conditions are expected to help contain inflationary pressures over time.

·    Eurozone Inflation Surges to 3% on Energy Shock

o   Euro area inflation rose to 3.0% in April 2026, the highest since September 2023, up from 2.6% in March and slightly above expectations. The increase was driven mainly by a 10.9% jump in energy prices, the strongest since early 2023, amid the Middle East conflict. Food and industrial goods inflation also edged higher, while services inflation slowed to 3.0%. Core inflation eased slightly to 2.2%. Inflation accelerated across major economies, including Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, reflecting broad-based price pressures.

·    People's Bank of China to Inject CNY 300 Billion via Reverse Repo

o   The People’s Bank of China will inject CNY 300 billion into the banking system through an outright reverse repo operation on May 6, aiming to maintain ample liquidity and stabilize financial market conditions. The operation will be conducted via interest-rate bidding under a fixed-quantity framework, with a 91-day tenor, signaling continued monetary support to ensure stable funding conditions and reinforce liquidity management in the banking system.

•  GHANA

·    Bank of Ghana Releases Financial Results for Full Year 2025

o   The Bank of Ghana’s 2025 financial statements show a loss of GH¢15.63 billion, driven largely by policy costs aimed at stabilizing the economy. Operational income more than doubled to GH¢22.28 billion, supported by gold-related gains and other income sources. However, this was offset by a sharp rise in operating expenses, particularly open market operations, which reached GH¢16.73 billion. The Bank’s equity position remained negative at GH¢93.82 billion due to the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme and monetary policy actions, despite improved income from reserves, fees, and gold sales.

•  AFRICA

·    South Africa Trade Surplus Narrows on Import Surge

o   South Africa’s trade surplus narrowed to ZAR 31.9 billion in March 2026 from a revised ZAR 35.9 billion in February, as imports grew faster than exports. Imports jumped 18.4% to ZAR 156 billion, led by gains in vehicles, machinery, chemicals, and mineral products. Exports rose 12.1% to ZAR 188 billion, supported by stronger shipments of minerals, chemicals, and transport equipment, though base metals declined 7%. The widening import bill outweighed export growth, reflecting stronger domestic demand and elevated industrial input purchases during the month across key trading categories and supply chains in South Africa.

·    Nigeria Private Sector Growth Strengthens in April

o   Nigeria’s PMI rose to 52.4 in April 2026 from 51.9 in March, signaling continued expansion in private sector activity. Output grew steadily on stronger demand and rising new orders, despite fuel cost pressures linked to Middle East tensions. Employment and purchasing activity increased, while inventories rose at the fastest pace in five months as firms built buffers. Most sectors recorded gains except services. Business sentiment improved, with firms planning expansion through new branches and market entry, though confidence remained constrained by persistent cost inflation and input price pressures across the economy during the period.

         Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·    U.S. Equities Closed Last Week Lower for the Fifth Consecutive Week as Escalating Middle East Tension and Surging Energy Prices Intensify Broad-Based Sell-Off.

·    Gold Tips up Marginally by 0.04% W/W, Amid High Volatility Related to the Middle East War.

·    Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed for Third Consecutive Week as Yields Continue to Climb Across the Curve.

·    GSE Records Sharp Pullback as Profit-Taking Deepens; GSE-CI Drops 17.22% w/w to 48.11% YTD, while GSE-FSI Drops to 80.20% YTD.

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - March 30, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·    UK Inflation Holds Steady at 3% in February

o   The UK’s annual inflation rate remained unchanged at 3% in February 2026, in line with expectations. Price increases were driven by clothing and housing and utilities, while inflation eased in transport, food, and services. Petrol prices declined, contributing to softer transport costs. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.4%, rebounding from a 0.5% drop in January. Meanwhile, core inflation edged up to 3.2%, indicating some underlying price pressures despite the stable headline rate.

·    US Current Account Deficit Narrows to Lowest Since 2021

o   The United States’ current account deficit narrowed to $190.7 billion in Q4 2025, down from $239.1 billion in Q3, marking the lowest level since early 2021. The improvement was driven by a smaller goods deficit, as imports declined more than exports, partly reflecting tariff impacts. The primary income balance shifted to a $23.9 billion surplus, while the services surplus eased slightly. Overall, the deficit fell to 2.4% of GDP, from 3.1% in the previous quarter, signaling improved external balance.

·    US Manufacturing PMI Beats Expectations in March

o   The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 in March 2026, up from 51.6 in February and above expectations of 51.3, signaling stronger factory activity. Output and new orders improved, supported by stabilizing export demand and easing tariff pressures. However, employment growth slowed, and supplier delivery times lengthened, indicating lingering supply constraints. Rising input and output costs point to renewed price pressures, while business confidence hit a 13-month high, driven by optimism over domestic demand despite ongoing geopolitical risks.

·    Japan Inflation Drops to Near Four-Year Low

o   Japan’s annual CPI eased to 1.3% in February 2026, the lowest since March 2022, with food inflation near a 15-month low at 4.0%. Price growth slowed for transport (0.5%) and clothing (2.1%), while energy costs plunged further—electricity -8.0% and gas -5.1%—reflecting subsidies. Core inflation fell to 1.6%, below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the first time since March 2022. Monthly CPI declined by 0.2%, marking the third consecutive monthly drop, as household items, communications, and recreation saw modest increases.

·    China Industrial Profits Surge in Early 2026

o   China’s industrial profits jumped 15.2% year-on-year in January–February 2026, marking the strongest start since 2018 (excluding the 2021 pandemic rebound) and signaling a solid recovery in corporate earnings. Growth was broad-based, with state-owned firms returning to expansion (+5.3%), while private enterprises surged by 37.2%. By sector, manufacturing led with an 18.9% increase, supported by strong gains in electronics and non-ferrous metals. Mining and utilities also posted moderate growth. The data highlights improving industrial momentum, though rising raw material costs from global tensions pose emerging risks.

• GHANA

·    Ghana Announces April 2026 Treasury Bond Issuance

o   The Republic of Ghana is set to issue 7-year GHS-denominated Treasury Bonds to support government financing and deepen the domestic debt market. The book opens for price discovery today, 30th March 2026, and closes with final pricing and allocation on Wednesday, 1st April 2026. Settlement and the official issue date are scheduled for Tuesday, 7th April 2026. The issuance provides investors with an opportunity to participate in government funding while aiding fiscal management and liquidity in the local market. 

• AFRICA

·    South Africa Holds Rates Amid Rising Inflation Risks

o   The South African Reserve Bank kept its repo rate unchanged at 6.75% on March 26, 2026, marking a second consecutive pause as policymakers flagged upside inflation risks from the Middle East conflict. While inflation eased to the 3% target in February, rising energy costs—particularly fuel inflation above 18%—are expected to push headline inflation to around 4% in Q2. The bank raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 3.7% and now expects only one rate cut, citing heightened uncertainty and potential prolonged geopolitical pressures.

·    South Africa PPI Falls to Seven-Month Low

o   South Africa’s producer price inflation (PPI) eased to 1.8% in February 2026, down from 2.2% in January, marking the lowest level since July. The decline was driven largely by falling costs for coal and petroleum products, particularly diesel and fuel-related inputs. Price growth also softened across categories such as food, beverages, paper, and furniture, indicating easing upstream cost pressures. On a monthly basis, producer prices were unchanged, following a 0.2% decline in January.

·    Nigeria Manufacturing Investment Plunges Amid Surge in Overall Capital Inflows

o   Foreign investment in Nigeria’s manufacturing sector plunged by 51.4% over the past two years, falling to $772.45 million in 2025 from $1.59 billion in 2023, highlighting weakening investor confidence in the real economy. The sector’s share of total capital inflows shrank from 49.7% in 2023 to just 3.3% in 2025, even as overall capital importation surged to $23.22 billion, nearly doubling from $12.32 billion in 2024. Analysts say the trend reflects a growing preference among foreign investors for short-term financial instruments over long-term productive investments like manufacturing.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·    U.S. Equities Gained Last Week, Amid Lower Geopolitical Tensions.

·    Gold Advanced by 1.56% w/w, Diverging from Oil Prices, Which Declined Following U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Announcement.

·    Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed for Fifth Consecutive Week as Yields Continue to Climb Across the Curve.

·    GSE Recovers After Sharp Sell‑Off; GSE‑CI Edges Up By 0.83% w/w to 49.93% YTD, With GSE‑FI Advancing By 0.67% w/w to 70.99% YTD.

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - April 13, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·    U.S. Core Inflation Edges Higher but Undershoots Forecasts

o   Core inflation in the United States, which excludes food and energy prices, increased to 2.6% year-on-year in March 2026 from 2.5% in the prior two months, coming in slightly below market expectations of 2.7%. Price pressures remained elevated across service categories excluding energy, with services inflation at 3%, driven by shelter costs (3%), transportation services (4.1%), and medical care services (3.7%). Meanwhile, inflation for goods excluding food and energy stood at 2.6%, as higher apparel prices (3.4%) more than offset falling prices for used cars and trucks (-3.2%).

·    U.S. Q4 Growth Cut Again on Weaker Investment and Spending

o   U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 was revised lower to an annualized 0.5%, down from 0.7% in the second estimate and 1.4% in the advance reading, largely reflecting a sharper downgrade to investment. Consumer spending decelerated more than previously expected, rising by 1.9% versus 2.0% earlier, as both goods consumption (0.3%) and services spending (2.7%) softened. On the external side, exports dropped by 3.2%, close to the prior estimate of a 3.3% decline and the steepest fall since Q2 2023, while imports fell slightly less than initially reported (-1.0% vs -1.1%). Government spending and investment contracted notably (-5.6% vs -5.8%), subtracting nearly one percentage point from growth due to the government shutdown.

·    Euro Area Producer Prices Record Sharpest Monthly Drop in Nearly a Year

o   Producer prices across the euro area fell by 0.7% month-on-month in February 2026, marking the steepest decline since April 2025, after rising by 0.8% in January and in line with market expectations. The drop was driven mainly by energy prices, which declined by 2.4% following a 1.3% increase, while prices for non-durable consumer goods slipped by 0.2%, unchanged from the previous month. Price growth also eased for intermediate goods (0.3% vs 1.0%), capital goods (0.3% vs 0.6%), and durable consumer goods (0.2% vs 0.8%). At the country level, producer prices fell most sharply in Spain (-3.1%) and Ireland (-2.6%). Germany saw a modest decline of 0.5%, while prices in France decreased by 0.2%. On an annual basis, producer prices were down by 3%, the largest year-on-year drop since October 2024, following declines of 2% in each of the prior two months and matching forecasts.

·    China Inflation Cools More Than Expected in March

o   China’s annual inflation rate slowed to 1.0% in March 2026, down from February’s more than three-year high of 1.3% and below market expectations of 1.2%. The moderation was largely driven by food prices, which rose at a much slower pace (0.3% versus 1.7% previously), reflecting sharp decelerations in fresh vegetable and fruit prices alongside a steeper decline in pork prices. Non-food inflation was broadly stable at 1.2%, only slightly lower than February’s 1.3%, with continued price increases in clothing (1.6%), healthcare (1.9%), and education (1.1%). Transport costs rebounded strongly (0.9% vs -0.7%), while housing costs continued to fall (-0.2%). Core inflation, excluding food and energy, eased to 1.1% year-on-year from 1.8% in February, which had marked the strongest increase since March 2019.

• GHANA

·    Moody’s Revises Ghana Outlook to Positive, Affirms Caa1 Ratings

o   Moody’s Ratings has revised Ghana’s outlook to positive from stable while affirming the country’s long-term foreign and local currency debt ratings at Caa1. The outlook upgrade reflects a growing likelihood of sustained improvement in domestic financing conditions, which is expected to support better debt affordability and strengthen government liquidity over time. Separately, S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Ghana’s sovereign rating at B-. 

• AFRICA

·    Egypt Inflation Jumps to 10‑Month High Following Fuel Price Increases

o   Egypt’s annual urban inflation jumped to a 10‑month high of 15.2% in March 2026 from 13.4% in February, well above expectations, following higher global oil prices and a 14%–17% increase in domestic fuel prices earlier in the month. Price pressures intensified across most sectors, led by transport, housing and utilities, food, and consumer services, while inflation eased slightly in health and recreation and remained stable in communications. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 3.2%, the fastest increase since February 2024 (11.3%).

·    Kenya Pauses Easing Cycle After Extended Rate Cuts

o   The Central Bank of Kenya kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.75% on April 8, 2026, halting an easing cycle that saw ten consecutive cuts since August 2024, totalling 425 basis points. Policymakers said the current stance remains suitable to anchor inflation expectations and support exchange rate stability, while highlighting upside risks from higher global oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict, which Governor Kamau Thugge noted has disrupted supply chains and raised energy costs. Kenya’s annual inflation edged up to 4.4% in March from 4.3% in February but remains below the 5% midpoint of the central bank’s target range and is expected to stay within it in the near term, while the growth outlook was revised down slightly to 5.3% from 5.5% due to emerging external risks.

·    South Africa’s Forex Reserves Decline in March

o   South Africa’s gross foreign exchange reserves fell to $77.76 billion in March 2026 from a record high of $81.01 billion in February. The decline reflected a lower US dollar gold price, valuation effects from currency and asset price movements, and foreign exchange payments made on behalf of the government. Gold reserves dropped to $18.50 billion from $20.93 billion, SDR holdings edged down to $6.59 billion, and foreign exchange reserves declined to $52.67 billion, while the central bank’s forward position rose slightly to $0.59 billion. Despite the monthly drop, reserves remained well above their level of $67.45 billion recorded in March 2025.

         Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·    Global Equity Markets Remained in the Red, Extending Last Week’s Losses Amid Escalating Middle East Conflict and Surging Energy Prices.

·    Gold Plummeted 10.50% W/W, as Middle East Tensions Drove Energy Prices Higher and Dashed Hopes for Near-Term Rate Cuts.

·    Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed for Second Straight Week as Yields Edge Higher Across the Curve.

·    GSE Edges Slightly Higher as Financial Stocks See Correction; GSE-CI Climbs 0.51% w/w to 78.92% YTD, while GSE-FSI Dipped to 111.83% YTD.

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - March 24, 2026

 AROUND THE GLOBE   

·    Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.5%–3.75%

o   On March 18, 2026, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, maintaining a steady stance amid solid economic growth, modest job gains, and elevated inflation. Policymakers continue to expect one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027, though the timing is uncertain. It revised economic forecasts for the U.S., with GDP growth now projected at 2.4% for 2026 (up from 2.3%) and 2.3% for 2027 (up from 2%). Unemployment is expected to be at 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. Both PCE and core PCE inflation have been raised to 2.7% this year (from 2.4%–2.5%) and 2.2% in 2027 (from 2.1%), reflecting slightly higher inflation pressures than previously forecast.

·    ECB Holds Rates, Revises Inflation Upward

o   The European Central Bank kept rates steady at its latest meeting on March 19, 2026—main refinancing at 2.15%, deposit facility at 2.0%, and marginal lending at 2.4%—while raising inflation forecasts due to higher energy prices from the American/Israeli war on Iran. Headline inflation is now expected at 2.6% in 2026, easing to 2.0% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. Core inflation projections also rose, while GDP growth forecasts were lowered to 0.9% in 2026, reflecting downside risks to growth from higher commodity costs and reduced confidence.

·    BoJ Holds Rates Amid Rising Middle East Risks

o   The Bank of Japan kept its short-term interest rate at 0.75%, with an 8–1 vote in which Hajime Takata pushed for a hike to 1%. Policymakers said the economy is recovering moderately but warned that rising Middle East tensions and energy market volatility are creating uncertainty. They signaled the possibility of future rate increases, noting low real rates and expecting inflation to briefly fall below 2% before rising again due to higher crude oil prices.

·    Japan Inflation Drops to Near Four-Year Low

o   Japan’s annual CPI eased to 1.3% in February 2026, the lowest since March 2022, with food inflation near a 15-month low at 4.0%. Price growth slowed for transport (0.5%) and clothing (2.1%), while energy costs plunged further—electricity -8.0% and gas -5.1%—reflecting subsidies. Core inflation fell to 1.6%, below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the first time since March 2022. Monthly CPI declined by 0.2%, marking the third consecutive monthly drop, as household items, communications, and recreation saw modest increases.

·    US Producer Prices Surge in February

o   U.S. producer prices jumped by 0.7% month-on-month in February 2026, exceeding forecasts of 0.3% and marking the largest increase in seven months. Goods prices rose by 1.1%, led by a 48.9% spike in fresh and dry vegetable costs, along with higher diesel, gasoline, eggs, jet fuel, and tobacco prices. Service prices increased by 0.5%, driven mainly by traveler accommodation. Core PPI rose by 0.5%. On a yearly basis, headline PPI climbed to 3.4% (highest in a year) and core PPI jumped to 3.9%, both above expectations.

GHANA

·    Ghana Cuts Policy Rate by 150bps to 14%

o   The Bank of Ghana reduced its benchmark interest rate by 150 basis points to 14% at its latest meeting on March 18, 2026 decision, marking a fifth consecutive rate cut. The move exceeded market expectations of a 100bps cut, signaling stronger support for growth. The decision follows a sharp decline in inflation to a 25-year low of 3.3% in February, although risks remain from rising global energy prices. Strong gold-driven forex inflows have eased pressure on the Cedi, giving the central bank more room to sustain its easing cycle.

·    Ghana’s GDP Growth Accelerates in Q4 2025

o   Ghana’s economy expanded by 5.8% year-on-year in Q4 2025, up from 5.5% in Q3, driven mainly by strong non-oil sector growth (7.1%). The services sector (8.6%) remained the key engine, contributing over half of total growth, with gains in ICT, transport, education, and finance. Agriculture also improved, rising by 5.3%, supported by higher crop output, including cocoa. In contrast, industry grew modestly by 1.9%, as declines in oil and gas offset gains elsewhere. GDP grew 6% in full-year 2025, surpassing the 5.8% recorded in 2024. 

AFRICA

·    South Africa Inflation Slows to Seven-Month Low

o   South Africa’s annual inflation fell to 3% in February 2026, below the 3.1% forecast and the lowest since June 2025. The slowdown was driven by a 2.1% drop in transportation costs, including a sharp 10.1% fall in fuel prices, as well as slower price growth in food, non-alcoholic beverages, and health. Core inflation also eased to 3%, a seven-month low. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.4%, up from 0.2% in January, reflecting moderate but broad-based easing across key categories.

·    Nigeria Inflation Falls to Five-Year Low in February

o   Nigeria’s annual inflation rate edged down to 15.06% in February 2026, from 15.10% in January, marking the lowest level since November 2020 and the 11th consecutive month of decline. However, the pace of disinflation has slowed in recent months. Despite the overall easing, food inflation rose sharply to 12.12%, highlighting persistent price pressures. The National Bureau of Statistics’ revised methodology—using a 12-month reference period—has also influenced recent inflation trends, while the central bank expects moderation to continue.

    Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics