In this week's edition:

• U.S. Equities Advanced, as Weaker-Than-Expected Jobs Data Reduced Expectations of Further Federal Reserve Tightening.
• Gold Prices Rose 2.16% W/W, Supported by Weak U.S. Jobs Data that Boosted Expectations for a More Accommodative Fed.
• Ghana’s Treasury Auction Misses Target by 6.16% as Yields Extend Upward Momentum Across the Curve.
• GSE Extends Pullback as Profit-Taking Continues; GSE-CI Falls 0.53% w/w to 67.49% YTD, While GSE‑FI Dropped 0.57% W/W to 76.63% YTD.
   

AROUND THE GLOBE   

• U.S. Unemployment Falls as Labour Force Participation Declines
  • The U.S. unemployment rate eased to 4.2% in June 2026, down from 4.3% in May and below market expectations, largely reflecting a sharp contraction in the labour force. The number of unemployed declined by 213,000 to 7.09 million, but total employment also fell by 507,000, while the labour force shrank by 720,000 to 169.36 million, pushing the participation rate down to 61.5%, its lowest level since March 2021. The employment-to-population ratio slipped to 59.0%, the lowest level in over four years, while the broader U-6 unemployment rate fell to 7.9% from 8.1%, indicating a decline in overall labour market slack despite weaker workforce participation
• U.S. Manufacturing Growth Moderates in June
  • The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the U.S. eased to 53.3 in June 2026, down from 54.0 in May 2026 and slightly below expectations of 54.0, signalling a moderation of growth in manufacturing activity. Growth in output (52.2 vs 54.3 in May 2026) and new orders (56.0 vs 56.8in May 2026) slowed, while the employment index improved to 49.7 from 48.6, indicating a softer pace of job losses despite remaining in contraction territory. Meanwhile, the price index declined sharply to 73.0 from 82.1, suggesting some easing in cost pressures, although inflation remained elevated amid ongoing concerns over Middle East tensions, higher interest rates, tariffs, and global trade uncertainty.
• Euro Area Producer Inflation Eases in May
  • Euro area producer prices rose by 0.2% m/m in May 2026, slowing from an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in April and matching market expectations, as declining energy costs helped moderate overall price pressures. Energy prices fell by 1.0%, extending April’s 0.2% decline, while producer inflation excluding energy eased to 0.7% from 0.9%, with slower increases recorded for intermediate goods (1.4% vs 1.8% in May 2026) and capital goods (0.2% vs 0.4% in May 2026). On an annual basis, producer inflation accelerated to 5.9%, the highest since March 2023.
• China Composite PMI Eases from Three‑Month High
  • China’s RatingDog General Composite PMI edged down to 53.6 in June 2026 from a three‑month high of 54.0 in May, signaling a slight moderation in business activity while remaining among the strongest readings of the past three years. Growth continued to be supported by sustained expansion in both manufacturing and services, with new business increasing for a thirteenth consecutive month and employment rising for a second straight month, marking the first back‑to‑back increase in payrolls since mid‑2023.
• UK Q1 GDP Growth Revised Lower
  • The UK economy expanded by 0.9% y/y in Q1 2026, revised down from the preliminary estimate of 1.1% and matching the revised growth rate recorded in the previous quarter. Growth continued to be driven by the services sector (+1.2%), while production declined by 0.1% and construction contracted by 1.6% compared to a year earlier. On the expenditure side, household consumption rose by 0.9%, government spending increased by 2.7%, and gross fixed capital formation advanced by 1.6%, while net trade weighed on growth as imports rose by 2.7%, outpacing the 0.6% increase in exports.

GHANA

• Ghana Inflation Climbs to Six‑Month High in June
   
  • Ghana’s annual inflation rate accelerated sharply to 5.3% in June 2026, up from 3.7% in May, marking its highest level since December 2025 (5.3%) and the third consecutive monthly increase. The pickup was driven mainly by stronger non‑food inflation (6.3% vs 4.1% in May 2026), led by increases in transport, housing, and education costs. At the same time, food inflation rose to 3.9% from 3.3% in May. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.2%, moderating significantly from the 1.1% rise recorded in May.

AFRICA

• Kenya Inflation Eases for the First Time in Four Months
• Kenya’s annual inflation rate slowed to 6.4% in June 2026 from 6.7% in May, marking the first moderation since February 2026 after reaching its highest level since January 2024 in the previous month. The slowdown was driven by softer increases in transportation costs (16.1% vs 16.5% in May 2026) and food prices (8.6% vs 9.4% in May 2026), helping ease overall price pressures. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.3%, significantly slower than the 1.6% increase recorded in May.
• South Africa Private Sector Returns to Expansion in June
• South Africa’s private‑sector activity returned to growth in June 2026, with the S&P Global PMI rising to 50.5 from 49.6 in May, moving back above the neutral 50.0 threshold. Despite the improvement, output and new orders contracted for a second consecutive month, reflecting weak domestic demand, elevated price pressures, and ongoing economic uncertainty, while the services sector remained the only segment to record growth in new business.
• Nigeria Private Sector Growth Moderates in June
• Nigeria’s private‑sector activity remained firmly in expansion territory in June 2026, although growth eased slightly as the Stanbic IBTC PMI declined to 53.4 from 54.1 in May. The moderation reflected slower increases in output and new orders, with manufacturing emerging as the only major sector to record a contraction, while strong consumer demand and new product launches continued to support overall business activity.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

• U.S. Equities Closed Mixed, as Chipmaker Volatility Offset Support from Declining Treasury Yields.
• Gold Prices Fell 1.36% W/W, as Rising Oil Prices and Escalating U.S.-Iran Tensions Strengthened Expectations of Prolonged Tight Fed Policy.
• Ghana’s Treasury Auction Oversubscribed by 30.24% as Long-Term Demand Remains Strong and 364-Day Yield Edges Higher.
• GSE Returns to Positive Territory as Broad-Based Gains Lift Market; GSE-CI Up 0.80% w/w to 68.33% YTD, While GSE‑FI Rose 0.40% W/W to 77.06% YTD.

AROUND THE GLOBE   

• U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to Highest Level in Over a Year
  • The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply to $77.6 billion in May 2026, up from a revised $54.6 billion in April and broadly in line with market expectations of a $78.5 billion shortfall, marking the largest gap since March 2025. The deterioration was driven by a 3.3% increase in imports to $395.3 billion last month, the highest level in more than a year, led by stronger purchases of consumer goods, crude oil, and passenger vehicles, while exports fell 3.2% to $317.7 billion due to weaker shipments of non-monetary gold, computers, and pharmaceutical products.
• ECB Signals Data-Dependent Neutrality Amid Geopolitical Volatility
  • According to the latest meeting minutes released on July 9, 2026, ECB policymakers agreed to maintain a neutral, data-dependent approach without signaling a pre-set path for future interest rates due to elevated economic uncertainty. However, markets are currently pricing in a 70% chance of a September rate hike as a recent surge in oil prices, triggered by renewed US-Iran military strikes, heightens concerns over broader inflation.
• China Inflation Eases Slightly Below Forecasts
  • China’s annual inflation rate slowed to 1.0% in June 2026, from 1.2% in May, coming in slightly below market expectations of 1.1% and marking the softest increase in three months. Non-food inflation eased to 1.5% (vs. 1.9% in May), driven by a moderation in transport costs (4.1% vs. 5.4% in May) following cuts in domestic gasoline and diesel prices amid lower energy costs as Middle East tensions eased. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose by 1.0% y/y (vs. 1.1% in May), while on a monthly basis consumer prices fell by 0.3% (vs. -0.1% in May), a steeper decline than the 0.2% drop expected by markets.
• Japan Bank Lending Growth Holds Near Five‑Year High
  • Japan’s bank lending increased 5.7% y/y in June 2026, unchanged from May’s 5.7% pace but slightly below market expectations of 5.8%, remaining the strongest growth rate since March 2021. Outstanding loans at major, regional, and shinkin banks rose to JPY 676.1 trillion, from JPY 670.8 trillion in May, with lending by major and regional banks accelerating to 6.3% (vs. 6.2% in May), driven by stronger demand for M&A financing, real estate investment, and business expansion.

GHANA

World Bank Downgrades Ghana Energy Recovery Programme to ‘Unsatisfactory’

• • The World Bank has downgraded Ghana’s Energy Sector Recovery Programme (ESRP) from “Moderately Satisfactory” to “Unsatisfactory”, citing financing constraints, election-related disruptions, procurement restrictions, and delays in approvals from the Ministry of Finance. Progress across key reform targets has been mixed, with ECG meeting its audited financial statement requirement but lagging in energy accounting, customer service reforms, and clean cooking initiatives. The Bank also raised concerns over declining collection efficiency and rising sector losses, with the combined financial losses of ECG and NEDCo reaching about US$1.5 billion, well above the programme’s long-term target.

AFRICA

Egypt Inflation Falls to Four‑Month Low in June

• Egypt’s annual urban inflation eased for a third consecutive month to 14.3% in June 2026, down from 14.6% in May and below market expectations of 15.1%, marking the lowest reading since February. The slowdown was driven by softer increases in transport costs (24.4% vs 24.7% in May), food and beverages (5.4% vs 7.6% in May), clothing and footwear (13.6% vs 14.2% in May), and health (4.0% vs 4.1% in May), although housing and utility inflation accelerated to 41.2% (vs 40.4% in May) on higher electricity costs. On a monthly basis, CPI fell by 0.4%, reversing a 1.6% increase in May and marking the first monthly decline since July 2025.

Egypt Central Bank Holds Rates Steady for Third Consecutive Meeting

• The Central Bank of Egypt left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 19.0% in July 2026, in line with expectations, marking a third consecutive meeting without a rate change as policymakers remain cautious amid geopolitical uncertainties and regional tensions. The decision came as headline inflation eased to 14.3% in June from 14.6% in May, its lowest level since before the Middle East conflict, while GDP growth slowed to 5.0% from 5.3% in the first quarter of 2026. Looking ahead, the central bank expects inflation to rise through Q3 2026 before gradually easing toward its 7±2% target range by the second half of 2027, with economic growth projected to average 5.0% in FY2025/26.

Kenya Economic Growth Accelerates in Q1 2026

• Kenya’s economy expanded by 5.3% y/y in Q1 2026, up from 4.0% in Q4 2025, marking the strongest growth since Q4 2024 and reflecting broad-based improvements across all major sectors. The rebound was led by agriculture, which grew 4.9% (vs. -1.3% in Q4 2025) amid favorable weather conditions, alongside strong performances in accommodation and food services (14.7%), mining and quarrying (9.1%), construction (6.6%), financial services (6.3%), information and communication (5.0%), and manufacturing (4.4%). On a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP increased by 1.3% q/q, unchanged from the pace recorded in Q4 2025, underscoring sustained economic momentum.

South Africa FX Reserves Fall to Seven‑Month Low

• South Africa’s gross foreign exchange reserves declined to $74.12 billion in June 2026, from $76.58 billion in May, marking the lowest level since November 2025. The decline was mainly driven by a drop in the value of gold reserves ($16.26 billion vs. $18.27 billion in May), lower foreign currency reserves ($51.22 billion vs. $51.66 billion), valuation adjustments, and government-related foreign exchange payments.
  
  Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

•    U.S. Equities Extended Gains, As Technology Stocks and Optimism Over the U.S.-Iran Agreement Offset Concerns About a Hawkish Federal Reserve.
•    Gold Prices Fell 1.51% W/W, As Hawkish Fed Signals Outweighed Support from the U.S.-Iran Peace Agreement.
•    Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed (20.24%) Amid a Sharp Rise in Yields Across the Curve.
•    GSE Extends Winning Streak to Three Weeks; GSE-CI Rises 2.27% w/w to 68.40% YTD, While GSE FI Rose 2.03% W/W to 80.65% YTD.

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - June 22, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

•    Fed Holds Rates Steady, Signals Higher Inflation Outlook

The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17, 2026, marking a fourth consecutive hold and aligning with market expectations, in the first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Updated projections revealed a divided policy outlook, with 9 officials expecting at least one rate hike, 6 seeing at least two, while another 9 anticipate no change or potential cuts, alongside a slight downgrade in 2026 GDP growth (2.2% vs 2.4% in March). At the same time, PCE inflation forecasts were revised sharply higher to 3.6% for 2026 (from 2.7%) and 3.3% for 2027 (from 2.7%), underscoring persistent price pressures despite solid economic activity and labour market resilience.

•    BoE Holds Rates Steady Amid Persistent Uncertainty

The Bank of England held its Bank Rate at 3.75% on June 18, 2026, with a 7–2 vote split, as policymakers balanced easing inflation against ongoing energy related uncertainty tied to Middle East tensions. While CPI inflation has moderated to 2.8%, two members voted for a 25bps hike to 4.0%, citing risks of renewed inflation pressures. The Bank noted that although energy prices have eased from recent highs, they remain elevated, with potential second round effects on wages and prices posing risks if pressures persist.

•    US Import Prices Rise Sharply Above Expectations

U.S. import prices increased by 1.9% m/m in May 2026, following an upwardly revised 2.0% gain in April, the strongest rise in four years and significantly above expectations of 1.0%. The surge was driven by a sharp jump in fuel and lubricant prices (+12.5%), reflecting higher global energy costs linked to Middle East supply disruptions, while non fuel import prices rose by 0.8%, supported by gains across capital goods, industrial supplies, and consumer goods.

•    Euro Area Inflation Confirmed at 2½ Year High

Euro area inflation was confirmed at 3.2% in May 2026, unchanged from April and the highest since September 2023, remaining well above the ECB’s 2.0% target. The increase was driven by a sharp rise in energy prices (+10.8%), alongside faster growth in services (3.5% vs 3.0% in April 2026) and non energy industrial goods (0.9% vs 0.8% in April 2026), although food, alcohol, and tobacco inflation eased to 1.9% from 2.4% m/m. Core inflation also strengthened to 2.6% from 2.2% in April, reflecting broadening price pressures.

•    China Keeps LPR Unchanged for 13th Straight Month

The People’s Bank of China held its key lending rates steady for a 13th consecutive month on June 21, 2026, with the one year LPR at 3.0% and the five year LPR at 3.5%, in line with market expectations. The decision reflects a cautious stance amid mixed economic signals, including weaker retail sales, persistent property sector weakness, and ongoing global uncertainties linked to the Middle East conflict.

•    U.K. Inflation Holds Steady Below Expectations

U.K. annual inflation remained unchanged at 2.8% in May 2026, below market expectations of 3.0% and holding at its lowest level since March 2025. The stability reflected softer price pressures in housing and household services (2.7% vs 3.0% in April 2026), alongside a further slowdown in food and non alcoholic beverages (2.2% vs 3.0% in April 2026), which dropped to their lowest level since December 2024.

 GHANA

 BoG Balance Sheet Expands as Assets Climb in March

The Bank of Ghana’s balance sheet strengthened in March 2026, with total assets rising to GH¢321.38 billion, up from GH¢310.58 billion in February, representing a 3.5% month on month increase and a 2.6% year on year gain. The expansion was driven largely by a sharp increase in foreign assets, which jumped to GH¢128.0 billion from GH¢109.48 billion, alongside a significant rise in foreign securities holdings to GH¢81.56 billion, reflecting stronger investment in external assets. Despite remaining slightly below March 2025 levels (GH¢129.73 billion), the improvement signals a recovery in the Bank’s external position, supported by continued gold accumulation and diversified reserve investments.

AFRICA

Nigeria Inflation Rises to Six Month High

Nigeria’s annual inflation accelerated to 15.93% in May 2026, up from 15.69% in April, marking a six month high and extending the recent upward trend. The increase was driven by a sharp pickup in food inflation (17.8% vs 16.6% in April 2026) and transport costs (17.1% vs 16.0% in April 2026), reflecting ongoing pass through effects from earlier fuel price shocks, while price pressures remained elevated across health, hospitality, and personal services, though easing slightly in some categories. Core inflation also climbed to 16.82% from 15.86% in April, highlighting broader underlying pressures. On a monthly basis CPI rose by 1.75%, slowing from 2.13% in April, indicating a modest moderation in momentum.

•    South Africa Inflation Accelerates but Misses Expectations
South Africa’s annual inflation rose to 4.5% in May 2026, up from 4.0% in April, marking the fastest pace since July 2024, though slightly below expectations of 4.7%. The increase was driven mainly by a sharp rise in transport costs (9.4% vs 4.9%) and housing and utilities (5.3% vs 5.2%), reflecting higher fuel prices and electricity tariffs, while pressures also picked up in restaurants and hotels (5.8% vs 5.2% in April 2026), even as food inflation eased to 1.9% from 2.9%. Core inflation edged higher to 3.8% from 3.6%. On a monthly basis CPI rose by 0.7%, slowing from a 1.1% increase in April.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics