In this week's edition:
· U.S. Equities Broadly Declined as Rising Concerns Over the Prolonged Conflict with Iran Unsettled Investors.
· Gold Prices Decline by 3.71% W/W, as Bullion Loss Appeal amid Escalating Inflation Concerns and the Potential for Fed Rate Hike.
· Ghana’s Treasury Records Second Consecutive Oversubscription (27.33%) as Yields Rise Across the Curve.
· GSE Extends Losing Streak as Financial Stocks Remain Under Pressure; GSE‑CI Dropped 1.70% W/W to 63.28% YTD, While GSE‑FI Slipped 2.93%% W/W to 73.63% YTD.
Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - May 18, 2026
AROUND THE GLOBE
· U.S. Manufacturing Output Posts Strongest Gain in 14 Months
· U.S. manufacturing output rose by 0.6% in April 2026, the largest increase since February 2025 and well above expectations of 0.2%, driven by a 1.2% jump in durable goods production, led by a 3.7% surge in motor vehicles and parts. In contrast, nondurable output edged down by 0.1%, as declines in chemicals and plastics were partly offset by gains in food, printing, and petroleum products. Meanwhile, capacity utilization increased to 75.8% from 75.4%, though it remains 2.4 percentage points below its long‑run average.
- U.S. Export Prices Surge Sharply Above Expectations
· U.S. export prices rose unexpectedly by 3.3% m/m in April 2026, accelerating from a revised 1.5% increase in March and well above forecasts of 1.1%, marking the strongest gain since March 2022. The rise was driven by a sharp increase in non‑agricultural export prices (3.4% vs 1.6%), supported by higher costs for industrial supplies, capital goods, and consumer goods, which offset declines in automotive exports, while agricultural prices also climbed by 1.6% from 0.6%, the most since October 2024. On an annual basis, export prices jumped by 8.8%, accelerating from a revised 5.4%, the fastest increase since September 2022.
· Euro Area GDP Growth Confirmed at 0.8% as Momentum Softens
· Euro area GDP expanded by 0.8% y/y in Q1 2026, in line with earlier estimates, slowing from 1.2% in Q4 and marking the weakest growth since Q2 2024 amid energy‑related pressures linked to the Middle East conflict. Economic activity softened across most member states, including Germany (0.3% vs 0.4%), France (1.1% vs 1.3%), Italy (0.7% vs 0.9%), and the Netherlands (1.2% vs 1.8%), while Ireland contracted sharply (-6.3% vs 3.0%). In contrast, growth showed resilience in several economies, accelerating in Spain (2.7% vs 2.6%), Portugal (2.3% vs 1.9%), and Finland (1.3% vs 0.1%), while Bulgaria held steady at 2.9%.
· U.K. Trade Deficit Widens to Highest Since 2022
· The U.K. trade deficit widened sharply to £9.66 billion in March 2026, up from a revised £5.34 billion in February, marking the largest shortfall since January 2022. While exports edged up by 0.2% m/m to £79.13 billion, driven by modest gains in goods and services, imports grew at a faster pace of 5.3% to £88.78 billion, led by increased demand for fuel, machinery, and transport equipment. Growth in exports was supported by stronger shipments to the EU, particularly in fuel and chemicals, while imports from both EU (+2.7%) and non‑EU countries (+7.5%) rose significantly, contributing to the wider deficit.
· U.K. Economy Posts Strongest Growth Since Q1 2025
· The U.K. economy expanded by 0.6% q/q in Q1 2026, matching expectations and accelerating from a revised 0.2% in Q4, marking the strongest growth in a year. Growth was driven by a rebound in services output (0.8% vs 0.2%), led by wholesale and retail trade, alongside modest gains in production (0.2%) and construction (0.4%), despite mixed sectoral performance. On the demand side, expansion was supported by stronger investment, household consumption, and government spending, while annual growth came in at 1.1%, above the 0.8% forecast.
· China Jobless Rate Falls to Three‑Month Low
· China’s surveyed urban unemployment rate eased to 5.2% in April 2026, down from a more than one‑year high of 5.4% in March, coming in below expectations of 5.3% and marking the lowest level since January 2026. The decline was broad‑based, with unemployment among local workers edging down to 5.3% from 5.4% and the migrant workforce falling to 5.0% from 5.3%, including a drop to 5.0% from 5.7% among those with agricultural registration. Job conditions also improved slightly across major cities (5.2% vs 5.3%), while the average workweek held at 48 hours, with the overall January–April unemployment rate averaging 5.3%.
· China Industrial Output Growth Slows to Weakest Since 2023
· China’s industrial production expanded 4.1% y/y in April 2026, slowing from 5.7% in March and falling short of expectations of 5.9%, marking the weakest growth since July 2023 amid economic headwinds linked to the Iran conflict. Growth moderated across mining (3.8% vs 5.7%) and manufacturing (4.0% vs 6.0%), while utilities activity accelerated (5.3% vs 3.5%), with most manufacturing industries still recording gains, led by strong output in computers and communications equipment (15.6%) and automobiles (9.2%). However, non‑metallic mineral products contracted (-6.5%), while industrial output rose 5.6% for January–April and edged up 0.05% month‑on‑month.
- GHANA
· Ghana Concludes IMF Programme, Shifts to Non‑Financing PCI
· Ghana has reached a staff‑level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the final review of its $3 billion Extended Credit Facility programme, marking the conclusion of a key intervention that helped the country recover from its most severe economic crisis in decades, subject to IMF Executive Board approval. The government plans to transition to a non‑financing Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) aimed at maintaining a credible fiscal path, strengthening resilience, and advancing structural reforms.
· Ghana to Launch $1bn Cocoa Bond Programme from July
· Ghana is set to raise $1 billion through cocoa‑backed bonds starting in July 2026 to finance purchases for the 2026/27 harvest season, according to sources familiar with the plan. The issuance will be structured in three tranches of roughly $330 million each, scheduled for mid‑July, December, and March 2027, with each tranche expected to be fully repaid before the next is issued. The programme forms part of broader efforts to overhaul cocoa sector financing, although officials from both the Finance Ministry and the Ghana Cocoa Board have yet to provide formal comments.
- AFRICA
· Nigeria Inflation Rises to Five‑Month High in April
· Nigeria’s annual inflation rate increased to 15.69% in April 2026, up from 15.38% in March, marking a five‑month high amid continued pass‑through from earlier fuel price shocks linked to the Middle East conflict. Food inflation accelerated for a third consecutive month to 16.06%, driven by broad‑based increases in key staples, while pressures also persisted in transport (16.0% vs 16.9%) and restaurants and hotels (27.9% vs 25.2%), although core inflation eased to 15.86% from 16.21%. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 2.13%, slowing from a sharp 4.18% increase in March, indicating a partial moderation in price momentum.
· South Africa Jobless Rate Climbs to 32.7% in Q1 2026
· South Africa’s unemployment rate increased to 32.7% in Q1 2026 from 31.4% in the previous quarter, reflecting worsening labor market conditions. The number of unemployed persons rose by 301,000 to 8.14 million, while employment declined by 345,000 to 16.75 million. Labor force participation fell to 59.0%, the lowest level since 2022. Broader measures of labor underutilization also deteriorated, with the expanded unemployment rate rising to 43.7% and the composite underutilization measure reaching 46.3%. The data highlights persistent structural employment challenges and weakening labor market absorption capacity in the economy.
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics
