In this week's edition:
- U.S. Equities Extended Gains as Job Growth Numbers Boosted Investor Confidence.
- Gold Prices Rose 2.19% W/W, As Bullion Gained Appeal as the Potential for the U.S. vs Iran Peace Agreement Eased Inflation Concerns.
- Ghana’s Treasury Records First Oversubscription (39.96%) After Eight Weeks as Demand Rebounds Amid Mixed Yields Movement.
- GSE Declines Sharply as Financial Stocks Drag Market; GSE‑CI Slipped 3.72% W/W to 66.10% YTD, While GSE‑FI Dropped 5.96%% W/W to 78.88% YTD.
Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - May 11, 2026
AROUND THE GLOBE
· U.S. Short‑Term Inflation Expectations Ease Slightly
o U.S. year‑ahead inflation expectations edged down to 4.5% in May 2026 from a seven‑month high of 4.7% in April, according to preliminary results from the University of Michigan survey. Longer-term inflation expectations also softened, with the five‑year outlook slipping to 3.4% from a six‑month high of 3.5% in the prior month.
· U.S. Job Growth Expected to Slow in April
o U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 62,000 in April 2026, down sharply from 178,000 in March, which was the strongest gain since December 2024, pointing to a moderation in hiring momentum. Employment gains are likely to remain concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, with manufacturing posting another modest increase, while government payrolls are expected to decline; the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to rise by 0.3% m/m, slightly faster than March’s 0.2%, lifting annual wage growth to 3.8% from 3.5%, with analysts noting it remains too early for any spillovers from the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict to show up in labour data.
· Euro Area Services PMI Slips Into Contraction in April
o Euro area services activity contracted in April 2026, with the S&P Global Services PMI revised slightly higher to 47.6 from 47.4, but down sharply from 50.2 in March, marking the first contraction in nearly a year and the steepest downturn since February 2021. Demand weakened further as new orders fell at the fastest pace since October 2023, employment stagnated for a second straight month, and backlogs declined at the quickest rate since March 2025, while cost pressures intensified to multi‑year highs. Business confidence deteriorated notably, dropping to its lowest level in 42 months.
· UK Private‑Sector Activity Strengthens Further in April
o UK private‑sector output gained further momentum in April 2026, with the S&P Global Composite PMI rising to 52.6 from 50.3, revised up from 52.0 and well above expectations of 49.8, signaling renewed traction despite war‑related energy price pressures. Both manufacturing and services expanded at a faster pace, while new orders edged up, though goods producers flagged that some demand reflected client front‑loading amid disruption concerns. Employment fell for a 19th consecutive month, with firms citing higher National Insurance contributions as a key drag.
· China Exports Hit Record High as US Shipments Rebound
o China’s exports surged by 14.1% y/y to a record USD 359.44bn in April 2026, far exceeding expectations of 7.9% and accelerating sharply from March’s 2.5%, as firms stockpiled inputs amid fears that the Iran war could further lift costs. Shipments to the US rebounded 11.3% y/y to USD 36.8bn, returning to growth after a 26.5% slump in March despite tariffs, while exports to Southeast Asia and Europe rose strongly and Japan posted a 4% gain. For January–April, total exports were still up 14.5% y/y to USD 1.34tn, although sales to the US remained 10.2% lower over the period.
· China’s Inflation Surpasses Forecasts on Rising Transport Costs
o China’s annual inflation edged up to 1.2% in April 2026 from 1.0%, beating expectations of 0.8% as non-food prices accelerated. Transport costs surged by 4.6% amid elevated energy prices and supply chain disruptions linked to Middle East tensions. Prices also rose for healthcare, education, and clothing, while housing costs remained in decline. Food prices fell by 1.6%, driven by weaker pork and fresh produce prices. Core inflation ticked up to 1.2%, while monthly CPI rebounded 0.3%, defying expectations of a decline.
- GHANA
· Fitch Upgrades Ghana to ‘B’; Outlook Positive on Strong Macro Recovery
o Fitch Ratings upgraded Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-’, with a Positive Outlook, citing improving macroeconomic fundamentals. The upgrade reflects a sharp decline in debt-to-GDP, supported by fiscal consolidation, strong growth, and Cedi appreciation. Public debt is projected to fall to 46% of GDP by 2027, while international reserves are expected to strengthen to 4.8 months of import cover. Strong current account surpluses, driven by gold exports, continue to support external stability. Fitch expects sustained primary fiscal surpluses and easing inflation, although interest costs remain elevated. Growth is projected to average 5% through 2027, underpinned by mining and improved domestic demand.
· Ghana Inflation Picks Up in April on Higher Fuel Costs
o Ghana’s annual inflation rate edged up to 3.4% in April 2026, from 3.2% in March, as non‑food inflation accelerated to 4.2% from 3.9%, largely driven by rising fuel prices, while food and non‑alcoholic beverage inflation eased slightly to 2.2% from 2.3%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI jumped 1.0%, the strongest increase since February 2025, accelerating sharply from a 0.1% rise in the previous month.
- AFRICA
· Egypt Inflation Eases Further in April Despite Energy Pressures
o Egypt’s annual urban inflation slowed to 14.9% in April 2026, down from a ten‑month high of 15.2% in March, as price pressures eased in health (9.3% vs 17.0%) and restaurants and hotels (12.0% vs 12.8%), even amid spillovers from the Iran conflict. Transport inflation remained elevated at 29.2%, though sharply lower than 39.4%, while housing and utilities accelerated to 38.5% from 35.3% on higher electricity costs; meanwhile, food and beverages rose 6.7%, the fastest in ten months. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 1.1%, slowing from 3.2% in March, helped by softer food price momentum.
· South Africa Forex Reserves Hit Four-Month Low
o South Africa’s gross foreign exchange reserves declined to $77.09 billion in April 2026 from $77.76 billion in March, the lowest since December 2025. The drop was driven by valuation effects and external financing flows, including a $235.8 million loan from the French Development Agency. Foreign exchange reserves fell to $51.7 billion, while gold holdings rose slightly to $18.7 billion amid higher prices. SDR holdings edged up to $6.7 billion, and the forward position remained steady at $0.59 billion. Despite the monthly dip, reserves remain above April 2025 levels of $67.59 billion overall.
· South Africa Private‑Sector Growth Strengthens to Multi‑Year High
o South Africa’s private‑sector activity improved further in April 2026, with the S&P Global PMI rising to 51.6 from 50.8, marking the strongest expansion since August 2022. Output and new orders accelerated sharply, supported by precautionary stock‑building amid Middle East‑related uncertainty, while employment growth climbed to its highest level since September 2022, though supplier delivery times deteriorated to a one‑and‑a‑half‑year low due to supply chain disruptions. Cost pressures intensified, with input inflation hitting a 30‑month high and output prices rising at the fastest pace since August 2024, keeping firms cautious about the sustainability of recent gains.
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics
