In this week's edition:
· Global Equity Markets Remained in the Red, Extending Last Week’s Losses Amid Escalating Middle East Conflict and Surging Energy Prices.
· Gold Plummeted 10.50% W/W, as Middle East Tensions Drove Energy Prices Higher and Dashed Hopes for Near-Term Rate Cuts.
· Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed for Second Straight Week as Yields Edge Higher Across the Curve.
· GSE Edges Slightly Higher as Financial Stocks See Correction; GSE-CI Climbs 0.51% w/w to 78.92% YTD, while GSE-FSI Dipped to 111.83% YTD.
Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - March 24, 2026
AROUND THE GLOBE
· Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.5%–3.75%
o On March 18, 2026, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, maintaining a steady stance amid solid economic growth, modest job gains, and elevated inflation. Policymakers continue to expect one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027, though the timing is uncertain. It revised economic forecasts for the U.S., with GDP growth now projected at 2.4% for 2026 (up from 2.3%) and 2.3% for 2027 (up from 2%). Unemployment is expected to be at 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. Both PCE and core PCE inflation have been raised to 2.7% this year (from 2.4%–2.5%) and 2.2% in 2027 (from 2.1%), reflecting slightly higher inflation pressures than previously forecast.
· ECB Holds Rates, Revises Inflation Upward
o The European Central Bank kept rates steady at its latest meeting on March 19, 2026—main refinancing at 2.15%, deposit facility at 2.0%, and marginal lending at 2.4%—while raising inflation forecasts due to higher energy prices from the American/Israeli war on Iran. Headline inflation is now expected at 2.6% in 2026, easing to 2.0% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. Core inflation projections also rose, while GDP growth forecasts were lowered to 0.9% in 2026, reflecting downside risks to growth from higher commodity costs and reduced confidence.
· BoJ Holds Rates Amid Rising Middle East Risks
o The Bank of Japan kept its short-term interest rate at 0.75%, with an 8–1 vote in which Hajime Takata pushed for a hike to 1%. Policymakers said the economy is recovering moderately but warned that rising Middle East tensions and energy market volatility are creating uncertainty. They signaled the possibility of future rate increases, noting low real rates and expecting inflation to briefly fall below 2% before rising again due to higher crude oil prices.
· Japan Inflation Drops to Near Four-Year Low
o Japan’s annual CPI eased to 1.3% in February 2026, the lowest since March 2022, with food inflation near a 15-month low at 4.0%. Price growth slowed for transport (0.5%) and clothing (2.1%), while energy costs plunged further—electricity -8.0% and gas -5.1%—reflecting subsidies. Core inflation fell to 1.6%, below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the first time since March 2022. Monthly CPI declined by 0.2%, marking the third consecutive monthly drop, as household items, communications, and recreation saw modest increases.
· US Producer Prices Surge in February
o U.S. producer prices jumped by 0.7% month-on-month in February 2026, exceeding forecasts of 0.3% and marking the largest increase in seven months. Goods prices rose by 1.1%, led by a 48.9% spike in fresh and dry vegetable costs, along with higher diesel, gasoline, eggs, jet fuel, and tobacco prices. Service prices increased by 0.5%, driven mainly by traveler accommodation. Core PPI rose by 0.5%. On a yearly basis, headline PPI climbed to 3.4% (highest in a year) and core PPI jumped to 3.9%, both above expectations.
GHANA
· Ghana Cuts Policy Rate by 150bps to 14%
o The Bank of Ghana reduced its benchmark interest rate by 150 basis points to 14% at its latest meeting on March 18, 2026 decision, marking a fifth consecutive rate cut. The move exceeded market expectations of a 100bps cut, signaling stronger support for growth. The decision follows a sharp decline in inflation to a 25-year low of 3.3% in February, although risks remain from rising global energy prices. Strong gold-driven forex inflows have eased pressure on the Cedi, giving the central bank more room to sustain its easing cycle.
· Ghana’s GDP Growth Accelerates in Q4 2025
o Ghana’s economy expanded by 5.8% year-on-year in Q4 2025, up from 5.5% in Q3, driven mainly by strong non-oil sector growth (7.1%). The services sector (8.6%) remained the key engine, contributing over half of total growth, with gains in ICT, transport, education, and finance. Agriculture also improved, rising by 5.3%, supported by higher crop output, including cocoa. In contrast, industry grew modestly by 1.9%, as declines in oil and gas offset gains elsewhere. GDP grew 6% in full-year 2025, surpassing the 5.8% recorded in 2024.
AFRICA
· South Africa Inflation Slows to Seven-Month Low
o South Africa’s annual inflation fell to 3% in February 2026, below the 3.1% forecast and the lowest since June 2025. The slowdown was driven by a 2.1% drop in transportation costs, including a sharp 10.1% fall in fuel prices, as well as slower price growth in food, non-alcoholic beverages, and health. Core inflation also eased to 3%, a seven-month low. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.4%, up from 0.2% in January, reflecting moderate but broad-based easing across key categories.
· Nigeria Inflation Falls to Five-Year Low in February
o Nigeria’s annual inflation rate edged down to 15.06% in February 2026, from 15.10% in January, marking the lowest level since November 2020 and the 11th consecutive month of decline. However, the pace of disinflation has slowed in recent months. Despite the overall easing, food inflation rose sharply to 12.12%, highlighting persistent price pressures. The National Bureau of Statistics’ revised methodology—using a 12-month reference period—has also influenced recent inflation trends, while the central bank expects moderation to continue.
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics
