Weekly Market Update - Monday, September 28, 2026

In this week's edition:

• U.S. Stock Indices Closed Higher as Easing Oil Prices Halted the Rise in Treasury Yields.
• Gold Prices Fell More than 1% w/w as Elevated U.S. Treasury Yields and Expectations of Further Fed Rate Hikes Weighed on the Metal.
• Ghana’s Treasury Auction Oversubscribed by 5.34% as Yields Decline Further Across the Curve.
• Ghanaian Equities Extend Losing Streak: GSE-CI Falls 2.95% w/w to 58.34% YTD as MTNGH Sell-Off Weighs on Market.

 AROUND THE GLOBE   

• U.S. Current Account Deficit Widens to $246 Billion in Q2
  • The U.S. current account deficit widened to $246.0 billion in Q2 2026, from a revised $212.6 billion in Q1, reflecting a larger goods trade shortfall as imports increased more than exports. The deficit represented 3.0% of GDP, up from 2.7% in the previous quarter. The goods deficit expanded to $291.3 billion, partly offset by a $91.5 billion services surplus and narrower primary and secondary income deficits. The data highlight continued external imbalances, with stronger import growth driving the deterioration in the current account.
• US–China Trade Truce Extended to January 2027
  • The United States and China extended their trade truce to January 10, 2027, prolonging tariff relief and the flow of rare-earth materials beyond the original November expiry. The extension provides additional time for negotiations on outstanding trade commitments ahead of further discussions between Washington and Beijing. The agreement reduces near-term trade uncertainty and supports continued bilateral trade, although longer-term tariff arrangements remain unresolved.
• U.S. Private Sector Growth Hits Five-Year High in September
  • U.S. private-sector activity accelerated sharply in September, with the S&P Global Flash Composite PMI rising to 58.4 from 56.0 in August, marking the strongest expansion since July 2021. Growth was broad-based, led by services, where activity reached a five-year high, while manufacturing also strengthened. New orders and employment increased, with backlogs rising at their fastest pace since May 2022. However, inflationary pressures intensified as input costs rose at the fastest pace in nearly four years, driven by higher energy and transport costs, reinforcing concerns over persistent price pressures.
• Eurozone Business Activity Accelerates to Three-Year High
  • Eurozone business activity accelerated in September, with the S&P Global Composite PMI rising to 53.1 from 52.0 in August, exceeding expectations of 51.7. The reading marked the third consecutive month of expansion and the strongest growth in nearly three-and-a-half years, supported by improving manufacturing and services activity. Germany recorded its fastest expansion in almost a year, while France returned to growth after 10 months of contraction. New orders increased at their fastest pace since May 2022, although rising input and output prices point to renewed inflationary pressures.

GHANA

• Bank of Ghana Holds Policy Rate at 14%
  • The Bank of Ghana maintained its benchmark policy rate at 14.0% in September, marking its third consecutive pause. The MPC cited broadly balanced risks to inflation and growth, while noting that inflation is projected to rise in coming quarters from 5.0% in August. Governor Johnson Asiama highlighted risks from higher global energy and fertiliser prices linked to the Middle East conflict, alongside vulnerabilities in the current account and international reserves. The Bank emphasised rebuilding external buffers to strengthen resilience against potential external shocks.

AFRICA

• Nigeria Cuts Policy Rate by 350bps to 23%
  • The Central Bank of Nigeria cut its Monetary Policy Rate by 350bps to 23%, the largest reduction since 2007, following two consecutive holds. The CBN said the adjustment aims to restore effective monetary policy transmission as market rates had diverged from the benchmark. The move comes as inflation eased to 15.39% in August, its third consecutive monthly decline. Governor Cardoso expects further moderation, supported by exchange-rate stability, improved inflation expectations, and the effects of previous tightening.
• South Africa Raises Repo Rate to 7.25%
  • The South African Reserve Bank raised its repo rate by 25bps to 7.25%, unanimously, citing upside inflation risks. Inflation rose to 4.4% in August, with fuel prices expected to push headline inflation above 5% later this year and early 2027. The SARB raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.4% while projecting a return to 3% by late 2027. Meanwhile, the 2026 growth forecast was cut to 1.2% from 1.4%, reflecting weaker economic conditions and global shocks.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics