Weekly Market Update - Monday, July 6, 2026

In this week's edition:

• U.S. Equities Advanced, as Weaker-Than-Expected Jobs Data Reduced Expectations of Further Federal Reserve Tightening.
• Gold Prices Rose 2.16% W/W, Supported by Weak U.S. Jobs Data that Boosted Expectations for a More Accommodative Fed.
• Ghana’s Treasury Auction Misses Target by 6.16% as Yields Extend Upward Momentum Across the Curve.
• GSE Extends Pullback as Profit-Taking Continues; GSE-CI Falls 0.53% w/w to 67.49% YTD, While GSE‑FI Dropped 0.57% W/W to 76.63% YTD.
   

AROUND THE GLOBE   

• U.S. Unemployment Falls as Labour Force Participation Declines
  • The U.S. unemployment rate eased to 4.2% in June 2026, down from 4.3% in May and below market expectations, largely reflecting a sharp contraction in the labour force. The number of unemployed declined by 213,000 to 7.09 million, but total employment also fell by 507,000, while the labour force shrank by 720,000 to 169.36 million, pushing the participation rate down to 61.5%, its lowest level since March 2021. The employment-to-population ratio slipped to 59.0%, the lowest level in over four years, while the broader U-6 unemployment rate fell to 7.9% from 8.1%, indicating a decline in overall labour market slack despite weaker workforce participation
• U.S. Manufacturing Growth Moderates in June
  • The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the U.S. eased to 53.3 in June 2026, down from 54.0 in May 2026 and slightly below expectations of 54.0, signalling a moderation of growth in manufacturing activity. Growth in output (52.2 vs 54.3 in May 2026) and new orders (56.0 vs 56.8in May 2026) slowed, while the employment index improved to 49.7 from 48.6, indicating a softer pace of job losses despite remaining in contraction territory. Meanwhile, the price index declined sharply to 73.0 from 82.1, suggesting some easing in cost pressures, although inflation remained elevated amid ongoing concerns over Middle East tensions, higher interest rates, tariffs, and global trade uncertainty.
• Euro Area Producer Inflation Eases in May
  • Euro area producer prices rose by 0.2% m/m in May 2026, slowing from an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in April and matching market expectations, as declining energy costs helped moderate overall price pressures. Energy prices fell by 1.0%, extending April’s 0.2% decline, while producer inflation excluding energy eased to 0.7% from 0.9%, with slower increases recorded for intermediate goods (1.4% vs 1.8% in May 2026) and capital goods (0.2% vs 0.4% in May 2026). On an annual basis, producer inflation accelerated to 5.9%, the highest since March 2023.
• China Composite PMI Eases from Three‑Month High
  • China’s RatingDog General Composite PMI edged down to 53.6 in June 2026 from a three‑month high of 54.0 in May, signaling a slight moderation in business activity while remaining among the strongest readings of the past three years. Growth continued to be supported by sustained expansion in both manufacturing and services, with new business increasing for a thirteenth consecutive month and employment rising for a second straight month, marking the first back‑to‑back increase in payrolls since mid‑2023.
• UK Q1 GDP Growth Revised Lower
  • The UK economy expanded by 0.9% y/y in Q1 2026, revised down from the preliminary estimate of 1.1% and matching the revised growth rate recorded in the previous quarter. Growth continued to be driven by the services sector (+1.2%), while production declined by 0.1% and construction contracted by 1.6% compared to a year earlier. On the expenditure side, household consumption rose by 0.9%, government spending increased by 2.7%, and gross fixed capital formation advanced by 1.6%, while net trade weighed on growth as imports rose by 2.7%, outpacing the 0.6% increase in exports.

GHANA

• Ghana Inflation Climbs to Six‑Month High in June
   
  • Ghana’s annual inflation rate accelerated sharply to 5.3% in June 2026, up from 3.7% in May, marking its highest level since December 2025 (5.3%) and the third consecutive monthly increase. The pickup was driven mainly by stronger non‑food inflation (6.3% vs 4.1% in May 2026), led by increases in transport, housing, and education costs. At the same time, food inflation rose to 3.9% from 3.3% in May. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.2%, moderating significantly from the 1.1% rise recorded in May.

AFRICA

• Kenya Inflation Eases for the First Time in Four Months
• Kenya’s annual inflation rate slowed to 6.4% in June 2026 from 6.7% in May, marking the first moderation since February 2026 after reaching its highest level since January 2024 in the previous month. The slowdown was driven by softer increases in transportation costs (16.1% vs 16.5% in May 2026) and food prices (8.6% vs 9.4% in May 2026), helping ease overall price pressures. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.3%, significantly slower than the 1.6% increase recorded in May.
• South Africa Private Sector Returns to Expansion in June
• South Africa’s private‑sector activity returned to growth in June 2026, with the S&P Global PMI rising to 50.5 from 49.6 in May, moving back above the neutral 50.0 threshold. Despite the improvement, output and new orders contracted for a second consecutive month, reflecting weak domestic demand, elevated price pressures, and ongoing economic uncertainty, while the services sector remained the only segment to record growth in new business.
• Nigeria Private Sector Growth Moderates in June
• Nigeria’s private‑sector activity remained firmly in expansion territory in June 2026, although growth eased slightly as the Stanbic IBTC PMI declined to 53.4 from 54.1 in May. The moderation reflected slower increases in output and new orders, with manufacturing emerging as the only major sector to record a contraction, while strong consumer demand and new product launches continued to support overall business activity.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics