In this week's edition:
· US Equities Closed Lower, As Softer-than-Expected January Inflation Failed to Lift Risk Sentiment Amid Persistent AI-Driven Volatility
· Gold Prices Gained 1.56% W/W, as Softer US Inflation Eased Treasury Yields and Pressured the Dollar
· Ghana’s Treasury Auction Saw Yields Drop Over 100 Bps Across the Curve, While the Offer Was Oversubscribed By 40.19%
· Ghanaian Equities Posted a Historic Weekly Surge, Pushing the GSE-CI To 17.00% YTD, With the FSI Advancing To 20.08% YTD
- Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - February 16, 2026
AROUND THE GLOBE
· US Inflation Slows More Than Expected in January
o The US annual inflation rate eased to 2.4% in January 2026, below expectations of 2.5%, and down from 2.7% in the prior two months. The slowdown was largely driven by base effects and softer energy prices, particularly gasoline and fuel oil. Inflation also moderated for shelter and food, while used car prices declined. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.2%. Core inflation edged down to 2.5% annually, with monthly core prices up by 0.3%.
· Eurozone Growth Holds Steady in Q4 2025
o The euro area economy expanded by 0.3% in Q4 2025, confirming earlier estimates and matching Q3’s pace, underscoring resilience amid easing inflation and lower interest rates despite US tariff headwinds. Spain led with 0.8% growth, supported by strong consumption and investment, followed by the Netherlands at 0.5% on export strength. Germany and Italy each grew by 0.3%, while France rose by 0.2%. Annual growth stood at 1.3% in Q4, with full-year 2025 GDP up by 1.5%, accelerating from 2024.
· United Kingdom Economy Grows 0.1% in Q4 2025
o The UK economy expanded by 0.1% in Q4 2025, matching Q3’s pace but slightly below expectations of 0.2%, according to preliminary data. Production rose by 1.2%, rebounding from a prior decline, with manufacturing up by 0.9% as car output normalized. However, the services sector stalled after modest growth in Q3, while construction contracted sharply by 2.1%, weighing on overall performance. On an annual basis, GDP rose by 1.0% in Q4. For 2025 overall, the economy grew by 1.3%, slightly above 2024’s 1.1% expansion.
· United States Nonfarm Payrolls Beat Expectations in January
o The US economy added 130,000 jobs in January 2026, sharply above December’s downwardly revised 48,000 and well ahead of forecasts for 70,000, marking the strongest gain since December 2024. Job growth was led by health care (82,000), particularly ambulatory services, alongside gains in social assistance (42,000) and construction (33,000). Manufacturing added 5,000 jobs. However, federal government payrolls fell by 34,000, while financial activities declined by 22,000. Notably, 2025 job growth was revised sharply lower, pointing to much softer underlying labour market momentum.
· China Inflation Slows Sharply in January
o China’s annual inflation eased to 0.2% in January 2026, down from 0.8% in December and below expectations of 0.4%, marking the lowest reading since October. Food prices fell for the first time in three months, driven by declines in pork, eggs, and cooking oils, while non-food inflation also moderated. Housing and transport prices remained in decline, though clothing costs accelerated. Core inflation slowed to 0.8%, its weakest in six months. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.2%, below market forecasts.
· Japan Records 0.2% Annualized Economic Growth in Q4
o Japan’s economy expanded at an annualized rate of 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025, rebounding from a revised 2.6% contraction in the previous quarter but falling short of market expectations for 1.6% growth, according to preliminary figures. The mild recovery was driven by an uptick in business investment, a small boost from net exports, and sustained government spending. Nevertheless, private consumption, which makes up over half of Japan’s GDP, recorded its weakest increase in a year, weighed down by persistent cost pressures, especially higher food prices. The data underscores the uneven nature of Japan’s economic momentum as it heads into 2026.
- GHANA
· Ghana Considers Cocoa Pricing Reform
o Ghana is weighing a shift from its fixed cocoa pricing system to a flexible, market-linked model, amid a sharp downturn in global futures. The proposal would allow automatic domestic price adjustments in line with international markets, replacing the long-standing administered price set at harvest. The move follows a 70% plunge in New York cocoa futures from their 2024 peak, leaving Cocobod exposed after paying farmers 58,000 cedis per ton. The reform, expected to take effect from the next main crop in October pending parliamentary approval, aims to stabilize the sector while increasing domestic processing to 60% of output. Cocoa remains a vital export, generating $3.9 billion last year (2025) and supporting over 800,000 households.
- AFRICA
· Egypt Cuts Rates to 19% as Inflation Continues to Ease
o The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) reduced its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 19% on February 12, 2026, marking the second consecutive cut and the lowest level since July 2023. The move followed easing inflation, with urban inflation slowing to 11.9% and core inflation to 11.2% in January. The Egyptian pound has strengthened about 2% year-to-date, trading at 46.8 per dollar. The CBE also cut the discount rate to 19.5% and lowered banks’ reserve requirement ratio to 16%.
· Kenya Extends Easing Cycle with 10th Straight Rate Cut
o Kenya’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 8.75% on February 10, 2026, marking the tenth straight reduction following a similar cut in December. The Monetary Policy Committee noted that the move reinforces earlier efforts aimed at boosting private‑sector credit and supporting overall economic activity, while maintaining price stability and a steady exchange rate. Kenya’s annual inflation eased to a six‑month low of 4.4% in January 2026, down from 4.5% in December, remaining below the central bank’s 5% target midpoint and expected to stay subdued in the near term. The bank also highlighted the economy’s resilience, with GDP expanding 4.9% in Q3 2025.
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics
